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In Russia, the "catastrophic" decline of the population

Russia is expected to lose more than 200,000 in 2019. This worrying number reflects the country's declining population. For the fourth consecutive year, the number of births is lower than the number of deaths. The authorities are worried, without finding the parade for now.

The Russian population is declining " catastrophically ": the words used by Tatiana Golikova, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, testify to the concern of the authorities. By 2019, Russia is expected to lose 200,000 people, and the country's population is just under 147 million * .

As was shown last October by a report of the Court of Accounts of the Russian Federation, it has been four consecutive years that the number of deaths exceeds that of births. And prospects are not encouraging: according to the UN, Russia could fall below the 100 million mark by the end of the century.

Russia would thus be experiencing a second demographic crisis after the one experienced in the 1990s. At the time, the high mortality rate and a sudden drop in the birth rate had caused the country to lose several million inhabitants.

Hollow population

It is precisely this demographic trough of the 1990s that could explain the decline recorded in recent years: it is the generation born at that time that is now of childbearing age. Even with a high fertility rate, this generation is simply not large enough to ensure the natural renewal of the population.

To this demographic phenomenon against which the authorities can not much is added the economic crisis since 2014. Stagnation of income, loss of confidence in the future: all this weighs on the morale of young couples and therefore on the natality.

Finally, for several years, it was the migratory flows that allowed the Russian population to remain level. But again, Russia's economic downturn is changing things: workers in Central Asia, the Caucasus or Ukraine are less likely to come to Russia.

Migration Policy

To stop this decline, the Russian authorities first put in place a financial incentive policy for families: the government's birth rate policy, implemented with some success in the 2000s, will be maintained and developed. Vladimir Putin has made it one of the priorities of his new mandate and has planned to spend more than 8 billion euros over the next three years.

To this economic component is added the migration policy. According to the Kommersant newspaper, the Kremlin plans to attract up to 10 million migrants in the next six years. Russia targets workers from ex-USSR countries: Central Asia, Caucasus, Ukraine. But the game is not won in advance because the Russian economy is much less attractive than before for these workers, especially because of the low level of the ruble.

* Including the 2.3 million inhabitants of Crimea, whose attachment to Russia in 2014 was not recognized by any part of the international community.