In Bolivia, after a change of power, a period of instability began. Along with President Evo Morales, Vice President Alvaro García Línera, Chairman of the Upper House of Parliament Adriana Salvierra, Speaker of the Lower House of Parliament Victor Borda and several officials at various levels left their posts.
On Monday morning, the streets of La Paz, the actual capital of the country, were empty, reports from the Bolivian television channel Red Uno testify to this. In cities, taking advantage of the situation, there are gangs of looters. The police, as far as possible, are trying to neutralize them, according to local journalists.
The second vice speaker of the Senate, Janine Agnes Chavez, the oldest of the current civil servants, became the interim head of state.
“This was not our initiative. So if there are necessary conditions, if civil society supports me, I am ready to accept this challenge. This is a difficult situation, a lot of things happened during these hours. I believe that Bolivia did not deserve what is happening, it's all very sad, ”said Chavez on the air of the local television channel Red Uno.
After these words, the acting head of state burst into tears.
Jeanine Agnes Chavez represents the Social Democratic Movement, also known as Democratic Unity and Democrats. This political force stands for the expanded autonomy of four economically developed departments located in the north and east of the country: Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija. It should be noted that this particular region, which is called the word Media Luna (“month”) in Bolivia, has always been in opposition to the course of Morales.
“A democrat, a supporter of autonomy, a mother, a defender of freedom and democracy,” is how Bolivia’s interim leader outlined her political views and position on Twitter.
- Morales' opponents celebrate his resignation
- Reuters
- © Marco Bello
The world took a wait and see attitude
The reaction abroad to a change of power in Bolivia has been mixed. A number of countries made condemning statements. So, the President of Argentina, Alberto Fernandez, announced that a coup d'etat took place in Bolivia, which, according to him, “was the result of the actions of aggressively-minded civil organizations and rioting police officers, as well as the inaction of the military.” How the coup described the events in Bolivia and the Foreign Ministry of Cuba.
“When the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces calls on the incumbent president of the country to be elected in a democratic election with a mandate until 2020, to resign - what else is there to call? What would it be called in Belgium, China, elsewhere? A coup d'etat, of course, ”Rafael Correa, the former president of Ecuador, said in an interview with RT.
However, cautious comments on the situation in Bolivia give authorities of other countries. On November 10, the US State Department posted on its website a statement stating that the United States supported the decision to hold new presidential elections, but called on parties to the conflict to refrain from violence.
The head of the British Foreign Ministry, Dominic Raab, expressed the hope that the crisis in Bolivia will now be resolved "swiftly, peacefully and in a democratic scenario." He, as well as German Foreign Minister Steffen Seibert, called for a new presidential election.
In turn, the press secretary of the Russian leader Dmitry Peskov noted that Russia is counting on the peaceful development of the situation in Bolivia. “And, of course, we hope that the Bolivians will decide their fate themselves, without the intervention of any third countries,” Peskov emphasized.
Despite the complexity of the situation in the republic, experts believe that international isolation does not threaten the new authorities of Bolivia. According to the editor-in-chief of Latin America magazine Vladimir Travkin, Mexico, Argentina, Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela will have rather tense relations with the new authorities, that is, countries whose current leadership has maintained long-standing friendly relations with Morales.
“Now everything depends on when the parliamentary and presidential elections will be held, how they will be held and how they will end. Today, there is no clarity on this issue, ”Travkin said in an interview with RT.
- Jeanine Agnes Chavez
- © Jeanine Añez Chavez
Interim president
Experts agree that Jeanine Agnes, who has stood at the helm, will not be in power for long - before the elections, and will not play any serious role in Bolivian politics.
“Nothing was heard of this man outside Bolivia. Let's see what she can do. But so far, nothing indicates that Agnes can remain in power for a long time, ”Travkin believes.
The main contender for power, analysts called rival Morales in the October elections, Carlos Mesu, who was president of the country from 2003 to 2005. His victory in the new presidential election is likely. Moreover, it is possible that, if not Morales himself, then someone representing his party “Movement to Socialism” may become Mesa’s main rival.
“This option is not excluded. Morales has been quite successful in terms of managing the economy. Bolivia has risen over the years and has relatively good economic performance. But 15 years is too long. From Morales are tired. However, the socialist ideas of which he is a supporter are still popular in the country, especially among the Indian population, ”Travkin explains.
At the same time, experts caution against attempts to interpret the events in Bolivia as a confrontation between left and right. Leading researcher at the Center for Political Studies of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences Lyudmila Dyakova notes that Mesu and his party "Civil Society" can not be called the ideological opposites of Morales.
“If they can be considered right, then they are fairly moderate right. They want to make the economic course more efficient, but not change it fundamentally. This is just a moderately right-wing opposition, which asserts its right to come to power and believes that the election results in the first round were falsified. This is their main complaint, ”said Dyakova in an interview with RT.
Vladimir Travkin agrees with her, who refers Mesa not even to liberals, but to socialists.
“In Bolivia, there is a conflict of personalities, not doctrines,” concludes the analyst.
Experts see some differences between supporters of Morales and Mesa in their social base.
The Movement to Socialism is widely popular among the Indians. They constitute the majority in the country and traditionally belong to the poorest segments of the population. Morales’s opponents have more supporters among whites and mestizos, ”Travkin explained.
- Bolivian army
- Reuters
- © David Mercado
Army or civilian
The current Bolivian political crisis is likely to be resolved in a peaceful, democratic way, if one factor does not play a role, which has more than once become fatal in the history of Latin American states, experts say.
“The army entered the political arena. It scares. The army did not participate in the political life of Bolivia for a decade and a half and even more, it was sitting in the barracks, but at the same time it remained a very important and influential institution. And now, Commander Williams Romero Caliman said that the president should leave. This all happened amid riots. And Morales left, ”Vladimir Travkin emphasized.
In his opinion, the army’s position recalls the past of Bolivia, in which there were many military coups that led to mass repressions of people who were objectionable to people in uniform. What role the army will play in current events in Bolivia will be shown in the coming weeks, and maybe days, experts say.
Nevertheless, in any development of the situation, experts do not see a fundamental threat to Russia's economic positions in this country.
“I think that there will be no big changes in our interstate relations under any government of Bolivia. We have a good relationship. And, importantly, they are not ideological in nature. This is a relationship between states, not between specific presidents, ”concluded Dyakova.