Iranian experts have begun enriching uranium at the Fordo plant, thereby launching the fourth phase of the reduction of nuclear deal obligations. This was reported on October 7 by the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization (OAEI).

It is specified that all work is carried out under the supervision of the IAEA. This UN entity monitors the technical aspects of the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA).

Iranian authorities say that uranium enrichment does not violate the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, but is conducted in accordance with Articles 26 and 36 of the JCPOA. These paragraphs allow Iran to view the re-imposition of sanctions as a basis for terminating its obligations under the deal “in whole or in part”.

  • Iranian President Hassan Rouhani
  • Reuters
  • © Brendan McDermid

As stated earlier by the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Abkar Salehi, after the third stage of reducing obligations under the JCPOA, Tehran began to produce about 5 kg of uranium per day.

At the same time, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani repeatedly noted that all measures taken by Tehran are reversible.

“When they (participants in the“ nuclear deal ”- RT. ) Return to the full implementation of their obligations under the JCPOA, then we will also return to their obligations. We cannot fulfill our obligations unilaterally, ”said Rouhani.

According to the politician, Iran’s partners in the JCPOA have two more months to return to the implementation of the agreement.

“If we can find a solution to lifting sanctions, selling oil and normalizing banking relations, then we will return to the full implementation of our obligations under the nuclear deal,” the Iranian president explained.

The minimum level of uranium enrichment that allows it to be used to create weapons is 20%.

As Behruz Kamalvandi, representative of the United Arab Emirates, said at the beginning of September, Iran can technically bring the level of uranium enrichment to 20%, but does not plan to do so. Nevertheless, Tehran is gradually increasing the level of uranium enrichment.

In summer, Iran reached a level of 4.5%, and on November 6, the leadership of the Republic’s Nuclear Energy Organization announced plans to raise the level of uranium enrichment at the Fordo plant to 5%.

It should be noted that in the framework of the JCPOA, Iran was ordered not to enrich uranium to levels above 3.67%.

According to experts, these steps do not make Iran a nuclear power: the country is still far from this status.

“Iran began work on uranium enrichment in order to show the United States the decisiveness of the Iranian leadership and to prove the ineffectiveness of the frontal tactics that Americans are now using. But no one knows whether Iran can really make nuclear weapons, ”said Dmitry Evstafiev, professor at the HSE, in an interview with RT.

How to fail in Iraq

Iran began reducing its obligations under the JCPOA in May 2019, a year after the United States withdrew from the agreement. The deal was concluded between Iran and five members of the UN Security Council (Russia, USA, China, France and the UK), as well as Germany. Under its terms, sanctions were lifted from the Islamic republic in exchange for Tehran’s limitation of nuclear development.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the agreement, and in May 2018 announced a unilateral withdrawal from it, accusing Tehran of not fulfilling the terms of the deal. The White House was not embarrassed by the fact that the IAEA inspectors have repeatedly confirmed that the Iranian authorities are following the conditions of the JCPOA.

  • Foreign Ministers of France, Germany, the European Union, Iran, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as Chinese and Russian diplomats. Lausanne, April 2, 2015
  • Flickr
  • © US Department of State

The US administration not only restored economic sanctions against Iran, but also expressed its readiness to apply sanctions against third countries trading with Iran. Although the European parties to the transaction have declared their commitment to the treaty, under pressure from the States, the trade partnership between Iran and Europe began to degrade.

At the same time, Washington continues to impose new sanctions against the Islamic Republic. So, on November 1, the US State Department announced measures against the construction sector of the republic, "controlled directly or indirectly by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps."

In addition, on November 4, the US Treasury announced sanctions against a number of Iranian citizens, including the son of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba. Under the new US sanctions, the headquarters of the Iranian armed forces also fell.

According to experts, Washington is now at risk of a dead end in its confrontation with Tehran. As Yevstafyev noted, the policy of sanction pressure was initiated by Trump from the beginning without understanding the limits to which he was ready to continue it.

“The main problem is that the international community does not have any tools to resolve this issue without military conflict. At the same time, the Americans cannot apply the Iraqi scenario to Iran. This is a deadlock, ”the expert explained.

Today, the States are not ready to get involved in a large-scale war, Yevstafyev believes. He noted that the most extreme measure Washington is ready to take is strikes on individual targets.

“But the problem is that this is also a military conflict that goes beyond the political framework. Trump began this confrontation, not having the resources to resolve it in the political field, ”the analyst is sure.

A similar point of view is shared by professor at Moscow State University, an expert on the Middle East, Alexander Vavilov.

“The states cannot repeat the Iraqi scenario with regard to Iran, since Iran is a strong state with a population of more than 80 million people. Trump now has a rather difficult situation on the domestic political front, he does not need an open conflict with Iran, ”the expert explained in an interview with RT.

Hit on reputation

If, under pressure from the States, Iran nevertheless creates nuclear weapons, this will seriously affect the balance of forces in the Middle East, experts are sure.

Tehran’s actions are closely monitored by Tel Aviv. At one time in Israel with great indignation met the news of the signing of the JCPOA. According to many Israeli politicians, Washington’s decision to negotiate with Iran has become a “betrayal” of the Jewish state. This and other steps of the Barack Obama administration have led to a noticeable cooling in US-Israeli relations.

The situation was changed by the victory in the presidential election in the United States, Donald trump, who advocated a closer relationship with Israel.

  • IDF military
  • Flickr
  • © Israel Defense Forces

At the same time, Israel, unlike Iran, refused to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. According to unofficial data, the Israeli army has a nuclear arsenal. At the official level, the Israeli authorities do not confirm, but do not refute information about their nuclear program, but at the same time they oppose initiatives to create a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East.

At the same time, the prospects for the appearance of nuclear weapons in Iran are of great concern to Tel Aviv. On November 5, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that his country would not allow Tehran to obtain nuclear weapons. According to the politician, this is unacceptable not only from the point of view of the interests of Israel, but also from the point of view of the future of the entire Middle East and the world.

According to experts, if Iran does have nuclear weapons, it will immediately turn it into an untouchable state and put an end to the plans of the United States and its allies in the region to pressure the republic.

“This will hit American interests and reputation. I think that today in the USA they hope that the Israelis themselves will try to solve the problem of destroying the nuclear infrastructure of Iran, so that the Americans would not have anything to do with it formally, ”Yevstafyev explained.

A similar point of view is shared by Vavilov. According to him, the appearance of nuclear weapons in Iran will establish a kind of nuclear parity between the Islamic Republic and Israel.

“The Iranians are a united people. Despite all the sanctions, Iran is able to create nuclear weapons. In fact, for the States and their allies, the collapse of the JCPOA did only harm: from the very beginning it was clear that this was a dead end. It should be noted that Iran still retains the opportunity to return to the implementation of the JCPOA, although it has the moral right to make claims to other parties to the transaction. By and large, for Trump, leaving the JCPOA was not a victory, but a failure, ”Vavilov summed up.