Analysis: "The split on refugee policy will persist"

Migration policy has emerged in recent years as one of the most important political conflict issues in Sweden. The voters of the parties are highly polarized on the issue at the same time as the refugee policy divides both political blocs and individual parties.

However, since 2015, the Swedish refugee reception rate has declined sharply. In the long run, this can cause the issue to lose some of its explosive power. Instead, more focus is now being put into the debate on issues related to integration and serious crime, more recently, not least, shootings and blasts.

The mission of the Migration Committee is to develop a long-term sustainable integration policy. How this would look, however, is more difficult to define. Here, the parliamentary parties make entirely different judgments.

The Swedish Democrats basically want to stop the refugee reception altogether, the Moderates and the Christian Democrats want to reduce it sharply while parties like the Left Party and the Environment Party want to see a more generous reception.

Ahead of Tuesday's meeting with the Migration Committee, the parties have submitted some 20 different proposals that go in completely different directions. For example, the moderates want a volume target for asylum seekers, while the Left Party wants an amnesty for unaccompanied young people who are not considered to have asylum reasons.

The role of the Social Democrats in this process is a little more unclear. Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has admittedly said that he too wants to reduce the Swedish refugee reception, but the cooperation parties Miljöpartiet and Centerpartiet will not accept this.

Sure, the Social Democrats could get support for this line if you do away with M, KD and SD, but then the current government constellation will crack. And given the concessions that the Social Democrats have so far been prepared to retain governmental power, the most likely scenario is that Löfven would rather bend to the demands of his partner parties, C and MP.

One conclusion, however, is already possible to draw on the future migration policy. As a general rule, temporary residence permits should remain. Today, there seems to be a clear majority among the parliamentary parties. Thus, the door of all judgments is closed for a return to the system of permanent residence permits that applied until the refugee crisis in 2015.

But if most of the rest you are deeply disagreeing. These include, for example, family immigration and what welfare requirements should apply, how unaccompanied young people should be handled, whether a volume target for Swedish refugee policy should be set and whether persons who are granted asylum should be forced to qualify for Swedish welfare systems.

Another point where the parties are divided is the government's proposal that future residence permits should also be granted for humanitarian reasons.

How, then, will the parliamentary parties finally form in the Migration Committee? Yes, the Swedish Democrats do not want to be prepared to accept any major compromises. The party has nothing to gain by compromising on this most important profile issue.

And leaving the SD, well then the Moderates will probably also leave the Migration Committee. Otherwise, the party runs the risk of falling into the fray for having accepted an over-diluted settlement with the government. And given that M and SD partially fight for the same voter, it could hurt Ulf Kristersson before the next election.

Another domino effect is that if M leaves the committee, well then the Christian Democrats will learn to leave as well. Ebba Busch Thor wants to stay with Stefan Löfven if M and SD closed the door to a settlement.

Thus, it is most likely that a settlement on migration policy is not at all as broad as the government has hoped.

Instead, most of it argues that in the end it will be a product that is solely supported by the current government constellation, that is, the Social Democrats, the Environment Party, the Center Party and the Liberals.

In this case, migration policy will continue to be an important political conflict issue also before the next elections. In this situation, expect the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats to do everything they can to accuse the Social Democrats of being on the knees of the Environment Party in the migration issue.