British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would not allow a new referendum on Scottish independence. He said this on November 3 in an interview with Sky News.
Answering the question of the host of the program, will it give a green light to the holding of such a referendum, Johnson answered with an unequivocal refusal.
“No, I do not want it to take place. And I see no reason to act contrary to this guarantee, ”the politician said.
According to him, the people of Great Britain "do not believe that referendums somehow very much contribute to harmony."
“There was already a referendum in 2014. In 2014, it was presented to the British and Scots as an event that can happen only once in a century of one generation, the prime minister added.
. @ SophyRidgeSky asks Boris Johnson four times if he will rule out granting a second referendum on Scottish independence.
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Recall that the referendum on Scottish independence was already held on September 18, 2014. Then 55.3% of Scots voted to remain part of the UK. 44.7% supported independence.
Brexit changes everything
The words of Boris Johnson on the air of the same channel were criticized by the Prime Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon. According to her, Johnson impedes the democratic will of the Scots.
The politician, noted that if the Scottish National Party (SNP), led by her, succeeds in the early parliamentary elections scheduled for December 12, then it will be difficult for London to resist the desire of the Scots to decide their own destiny.
“Everyone in Scotland knows that a second referendum on independence will take place, and the SNP victory in the upcoming elections will clearly indicate that we want to determine our future ourselves, and not allow Boris Johnson to continue to impose one way or another on us,” Sturgeon said . “If the SNP wins this election, then the desire of any politician in Westminster to prevent the holding of an independence referendum will be regarded as the desire to ignore the democratic will of the Scottish people.” I don’t think that any of the politicians in Westminster will want to stay in that position. ”
First Minister @NicolaSturgeon says it would be unsustainable for Westminster leaders to oppose holding a Scottish independence referendum if the SNP succeed in the general election.
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On the eve of the Scottish prime minister took part in the march of thousands of Scottish independence supporters in Glasgow. As the newspaper The Herald, referring to the demonstrators, she called the upcoming elections to the British Parliament "the most important" vote in their life.
- Nikola Sturgeon
- Reuters
- © Russell Cheyne
After the majority of the population of the United Kingdom voted for Brexit in a referendum on Britain’s exit from the EU in 2016, the Scottish leadership became more and more active in favor of a new plebiscite on independence.
The fact is that in the Brexit referendum, most of the Scots, unlike their compatriots in England, opposed leaving the EU. This gave the Edinburgh government reason to claim that Scotland was leaving the EU against her own will, and leaving Britain would keep the region within the European Union.
The Scottish nationalists were also encouraged by the results of opinion polls. Against the background of prolonged brexitis, more and more residents of Scotland began to advocate secession from the UK. Thus, a public opinion poll conducted by Panelbase at the request of The Sunday Times Scotland in October showed that the share of supporters of independence reached 50%.
When choosing between independence and Brexit without a deal, the share of those wishing to separate increased to 54%. Supports a referendum on the independence of Scotland and about half of the UK population as a whole.
“Now for the first time more people are ready to vote for independence than against it. This is due to brexitis and its consequences, ”said Natalya Yeryomina, professor at the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, in an interview with RT. - For the Scots, social stability and the common EU market are more important than the UK market. Let's not forget that in 1707, the Scottish elites signed a union with England precisely in order to participate in the process of mastering the world and to obtain economic benefits. Now they have no confidence that Scotland will receive the very profit that it can receive, being part of the pan-European market. "
London law
In mid-October, Nicola Sturgeon announced that, in accordance with Section 30 of the Scotland Act, she would send a request to the British government for a referendum on independence a few days after the parliamentary elections. Moreover, as noted by the BBC, Sturgeon counts on the support of the leader of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbin, on this issue if he becomes prime minister.
Corbin himself did not express interest in holding a referendum on Scottish independence in the first time after his possible rise to power.
On Sky News, Rebecca Long Bailey, a member of the “shadow government” of the Labor Party, said the Labor Party was ready to go to the referendum only after the new elections to the Scottish Parliament, that is, not earlier than 2021.
“We essentially stated the following: if after the next parliamentary election in Scotland its government decides that a second referendum is necessary and organizes an appropriate legislative process, then there will be no obstacles from our government,” Long Bailey emphasized.
In 1998, the British Parliament passed the Scottish Act. This law once granted an independent kingdom, which became part of Great Britain in 1707, autonomy and the right to create its own parliament and government. However, the Scots did not receive the right to independently hold referenda on independence - this issue remained in the sphere of authority of London.
Edinburgh may temporarily obtain the right to pass a law on the organization of a referendum on independence from the British Parliament.
- Boris Johnson
- Reuters
- © Aaron Chown / Pool
According to Natalia Ereminoy, the question of holding a vote on Scottish independence is in the hands of the prime minister, that is, Boris Johnson. And the British government can allow a plebiscite to be held only on one condition: if it is certain that the majority will vote to stay in the United Kingdom. This was the case in 2014, when David Cameron allowed a referendum to be held, and the majority really spoke out against independence. However, Johnson now has no such confidence.
“The prime minister does not want the collapse of the UK and understands that right now it is possible. Of course, he will not give the right to hold a referendum, ”said Eremin.
According to Pavel Feldman, director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at RUDN University, most British political forces, including the majority in the ruling Conservative Party, do not support the Scots' desire for independence.
According to him, the situation will not change even the coming to power of the opposition Labor Party.
“Even if the majority get the Labor Party, which is unlikely, they are also unlikely to grant Scotland full sovereignty, because they never spoke about it on their political agenda,” RT Feldman said. - In the framework of bargaining, Scotland can achieve preferences and greater freedom from London. In this, the SNP and Labor can agree. But this will not be a complete separation, but simply an extension of rights. ”
Recall that earlier, the former Labor Prime Minister Gordon Brown proposed something similar. In 2017, in contrast to the demands for a new referendum, he put forward the idea to empower the Scottish government with new powers, including the ability to conclude international treaties. Also, according to Brown, the central government could send £ 800 million to Edinburgh - part of the amount that London had previously transferred annually to the common treasury of the EU.
Incomplete exit
Speaking at the Scottish National Party party conference in Aberdeen on October 15, Nikola Sturgeon said she would push for an independence referendum in accordance with UK laws in 2020. According to her, this is necessary in order for the expression of will to be recognized by the international community. The British media interpreted this statement as the reluctance of the Scottish government to follow the path of Catalonia and hold an unconstitutional referendum.
Nevertheless, calls are being made in Scotland to hold a referendum, even if London does not give him the go-ahead.
- Scottish Parliament Session
- AFP
- © ANDREW MILLIGAN / POOL
In July, the former Minister of Justice in the Scottish Government, Kenny Macaskill, stated that if Westminster did not approve the referendum on Scottish independence, then Edinburgh should still hold such a will, even if it had consultative status.
According to Eremin, the Scottish National Party will refrain from radical steps in achieving independence. For SNP, she notes, it is important to hold an independence referendum so that it is accepted by all EU countries, including Spain, frightened by the Catalan referendum on independence. And for this it is necessary that all actions be within the law, the analyst noted.
“If the Scottish authorities still want to hold a referendum against the will of London, then the British authorities will call it illegitimate. As a result, the referendum will not be recognized by the international community, ”the expert believes.
Feldman, in turn, does not exclude that the Scottish authorities can hold an advisory referendum, which does not require the permission of London.
“If this happens now, then most likely the Scottish people will indeed vote for an exit from the United Kingdom. But the exit will not happen. The referendum results will be used to pressure London to dislodge some material preferences that will help mitigate the negative effect of Scotland's UK exit from the EU. Thus, it will be possible to resolve economic issues, ”the expert said.