The loss of special status: as in India and Pakistan commented on the recognition of Jammu and Kashmir by the allied territories

On Thursday, October 31, the decision of the Government of India on the elimination of the states of Jammu and Kashmir entered into force. Instead, two allied territories appeared: Jammu and Kashmir, as well as Ladakh.

In Indian law, there is a fundamental difference between union territory and state. The head of state is the appointed governor. Union territory, in turn, is controlled directly by the federal government. It is also worth noting that the state of Jammu and Kashmir was "in a special position" as part of India. Its status was regulated by Article 370 of the Constitution, according to which local authorities had special rights that the governments of other subjects of the federation did not have.

In particular, all laws passed by the country's parliament were sent for approval by the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly. The state also had its own Constitution, and therefore, without the consent of New Delhi, it could make any decisions in areas not related to defense, foreign affairs and communications.

Article 370 was adopted after the First Indo-Pakistani War of 1947-1948, which was caused by disagreements between New Delhi and Islamabad over the ownership of Kashmir. It was supposed that the special status of this territory would allow its population, mostly Muslim, to integrate more quickly into India.

• Narendra Modi
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• © Adnan Abidi

And in August 2019, the Indian government canceled article 370 of the Constitution - with a delay in the entry into force of this decision until October 31, when the country celebrates National Unity Day.

“For thirty years, more than 40 thousand people have died at the hands of terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir, where article 370 is in force. How many more would the country have watched the deaths of such a large number of innocent people?” Said the Prime Minister of India in his speech on the occasion of the holiday Mody.

He compared the abolition of Article 370 with the destruction of the wall.

"The internal business of India"

Islamabad, in turn, reacted extremely sharply to the decision of New Delhi.

“Occupied by India, Jammu and Kashmir are an internationally recognized disputed territory. No action by the Indian government will change that. Pakistan rejects the split of Jammu and Kashmir into two allied territories ... The people of India occupied by Jammu and Kashmir will never accept an illegal and violent occupation, ”the statement said.

It should be noted that this fall, relations between the two countries deteriorated again. In October, Indian troops launched artillery attacks on militant camps located in Pakistan-controlled parts of Kashmir. According to the Indian side, this was a response to shelling from Pakistani territory, which killed three people: two Indian soldiers and one civilian. Pakistan denies these allegations. Islamabad, for its part, said that New Delhi violated earlier commitments to ceasefire in the conflict zone of the two countries.

Back in August, Pakistan lowered diplomatic relations with India. In addition, the Foreign Minister of this country, Mehmud Qureshi, announced his readiness to appeal to the UN International Court of Justice regarding the status of Kashmir.

However, experts believe that, despite the severity of the situation, any efforts by Pakistan in this direction are likely to be futile.

“From the point of view of New Delhi, changing the status of Kashmir is an internal affair of India. Her leadership made a decision within the political borders of their country. It wants to equalize the rights of residents of Jammu and Kashmir with the rights of all residents of the state and thereby defuse the situation in the region, ”Tatyana Shaumyan, head of the Center for Indian Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with RT.

At the same time, Shaumyan predicts that the situation in the Union territories will remain very difficult for a long time to come. She draws attention to the high social tension in Kashmir, poverty and the difficult economic situation, which fuels radicalism.

“In addition, there are still no official borders between India and Pakistan. The armed forces of the two countries are actually divided along the line that they themselves conducted. Separatists are also active in the state who advocate either for its accession to Pakistan, or even for the declaration of independence, ”said the expert.

According to political scientists, the last straw that prompted the Indian authorities to cancel article 370 was a terrorist attack in February 2019, when 45 Indian soldiers were killed.

“For a long time, the authorities of this country behaved very carefully in relation to Kashmir. Not only is this a disputed territory between India and Pakistan. It was the only state in India where Muslims make up the majority of the population, and their share is not falling, but growing. Modi perfectly understood the specifics of the region, did not make any sudden movements, tried to develop the local economy, make concessions to local residents, where possible. But this has no effect. And then in New Delhi they decided to act differently, ”explained MGIMO professor Sergei Lunev in an interview with RT.

In his opinion, actions of both sides of the conflict can now lead to a possible aggravation of the situation. Sergey Lunev recalls that Pakistan has been conducting an information campaign for more than half a century, accusing India of discrimination against Muslims in Kashmir. And now, from his point of view, it can take a more active character.

“The civilian authorities of Pakistan, of course, can take a more conciliatory position. But the main political actor in the country is the army and its intelligence service. And the Pakistani secret services, and this is not a secret, have long had strong ties with the anti-Indian armed groups in Kashmir. I think that after October 31, tensions in the region will intensify, ”Lunev said.

“No intermediaries needed”

Experts also believe that in this situation, other powers will try to smooth out the contradictions between India and Pakistan. After all, both countries possess nuclear weapons, so an armed conflict between them is fraught with large-scale negative consequences.

• Pakistani and Indian military
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• © Rana Sajid Hussain / ZUMAPRESS.com

“Everyone - the United States, the European Union, Russia, China - calls on India and Pakistan to peacefully solve their problems. However, it must be borne in mind that each country has its own allies. The US has traditionally supported Pakistan. But now, Americans are increasingly taking the side of India. Now Pakistan has become a strategic partner of China, which has supported Islamabad. However, Beijing also calls on the Pakistani authorities to pursue prudent policies. Nevertheless, China and India have similar positions on global issues, ”says Lunev.

At the same time, experts note that the possibilities of foreign countries to influence relations between India and Pakistan are currently limited. First of all, this is explained by the specific position of New Delhi, based on the principles that guide the country in foreign policy.

“Donald Trump proposed to mediate the dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Islamabad accepted his offer. But India, in spite of all the reverences of Washington, despite a clear economic and political rapprochement with the United States, nevertheless stated that it did not need intermediaries. The position of India from the very beginning of the conflict around Kashmir remains unchanged: mediators are not needed. The issue of land ownership, which the Indians historically consider their own, should be decided only in dialogue with Pakistan, as they say in Delhi, ”Shaumyan notes.

However, according to Lunev, Pakistan is also in no hurry to listen to the opinions of third countries.

“I got the impression that Islamabad sometimes agrees to talk with the United States or, for example, with Russia about mediation in Kashmir solely in order to undermine the military-political ties of these states with India. In fact, not a single country succeeds in becoming an intermediary between these two states. This, of course, is a serious factor of instability and uncertainty, ”the expert concludes.