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October 31, 2019The inflation rate for October remains stable on a monthly basis, while it rises by 0.3% on the year. According to preliminary Istat estimates, the national consumer price index for the entire community (Nic), gross of tobacco, shows a zero change on a monthly basis and an increase of 0.3% on an annual basis ( as in the previous month).The stability of inflation at contained levels, according to Istat, is the synthesis of opposite trends among which on the one hand stand out the widening of the decline in the prices of regulated energy goods (from -5.3% to -8 , 2%) and on the other hand the acceleration in the prices of transport services (from + 0.4% to + 1.9%).
The underlying inflation, net of energy and fresh food, and that net of energy goods alone, both accelerate from + 0.6% to + 0.8%. The cyclical increase in the prices of energy goods, both in the regulated component (+ 2.7%) and not (+ 0.9%), was offset by the fall, mostly due to seasonal factors, in the prices of the services related to transport (-0.7%) and recreational, cultural and personal care services (-0.8%), thus determining a cyclical change in the general index of zero.
The prices of food, care of the home and of the person increase by 0.8% on an annual basis and those of high-frequency products by 0.5% (both up from + 0.4% in the month previous), recording in both cases a more sustained growth than that referred to the whole basket. According to preliminary estimates, the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) increases by 0.2% on a monthly basis and on an annual basis (as in September).
Weak in Europe
Inflation is also weak in the euro area. The annual increase in consumer prices in the Eurozone, according to the preliminary estimate by Eurostat, was 0.7% in October, down from 0.8% in September. The data is in line with the consensus, the average of analysts' estimates. Compared to September, the estimated price increase is 0.2%. The downturn in inflation was mainly due to energy (-3.2%, compared to -1.8% in September). Core inflation, that is purified from the most volatile components (energy, food, alcohol and tobacco), is estimated at 1.1% (+, 01% cyclical), from + 1% in September, higher than the consensus.