Expect a war between America and China .. What Abu Ghazaleh said about the economic crisis and the future of the dollar?

Mohammed Al-Shayazmi-Doha

While beats d. Talal Abu-Ghazaleh, founder and chairman of the Talal Abu-Ghazaleh Organization (TAG-Org), has raised the alarm about a global economic crisis in 2020, following renewed fears that major economies may soon enter recession and possibly recession, or even a war between the United States and China.

However, Abu-Ghazaleh calls on the Gulf countries to seize the opportunity and take proactive measures, take advantage of the positive fluctuations in energy markets, and achieve economic takeoff based on specific growth strategies focused.

During the meeting organized by the Qatar Accountants Association today, Abu-Ghazaleh not only listed the bases on which he based his frightening expectations based on the studies of international research and thinking centers, but also drew up the post-crisis scenario, which would have a devastating third world war between China and the United States. It will end with the declaration of a new bipolar world order led by the two countries, with the adoption of a new world currency in place of the dollar, and the signing of clearer trade agreements, especially with regard to intellectual property laws.

Abu-Ghazaleh believes that the Gulf countries cannot implement unified plans to face the crisis, and that there are a number of options that vary from country to country, and vary according to companies and individuals, but would build specific and focused regional growth strategies based on technical competencies and innovation, and promote sustainability. These countries have greater flexibility in dealing with them.

In a statement to Al Jazeera Net, Abu-Ghazaleh said that the global crisis remains an opportunity that can be seized, and history has taught us that wars are mostly an opportunity to create wealth, and that the expected conditions can serve the Gulf and Arab region as well, in order to declare a renaissance of the economic Marshall Plan leading in turn to recovery and prosperity Global economists.

This view is in line with a series of actions initiated by some Gulf countries, including continuing efforts to diversify the economy, reduce dependence on oil and energy revenues, strengthen industrial sectors, reduce consumption and encourage local production, develop human capital in preparation for future jobs and enhance Competitiveness in global markets.

However, Abu-Ghazaleh disagrees sharply with other views that Gulf economies will inevitably be in the eye of the storm and that they will be affected by any war between China and the US, whether economic or military, given their overlapping interests and dollar pegs.

War .. Dialogue
Since the 1980s, US fears of a loss of global economic leadership have escalated, and China, whose economy is growing by 6% and betting its economy to be twice as strong as the US in 2030, is nearing a lead as the world's largest economy declines to The US budget deficit has risen to 20 percent, or nearly $ 1 trillion.

Abu-Ghazaleh said these figures would naturally frighten US policymakers, especially as the gap between the two countries' economies could grow in the coming years. To stop this decline, the US president may launch a war at any moment, with the Sea of ​​China likely to erupt ahead of the upcoming US elections, in order to get China to accept dialogue.

Among the indicators that keep this scenario in line, says Abu-Ghazaleh - American reports on the possibility of censoring the movement of the dollar in trade dealings with China, as well as the intensification of the war on intellectual property rights, where President Donald Trump has said that his country is losing huge amounts estimated In its trillions for the benefit of China, its rights to technology developed by Beijing, which registers half a million patents annually in the name of its companies, must be guaranteed in clear contradiction with the provisions of the laws of the World Intellectual Property Organization.

Abu-Ghazaleh also sees the escalation of the conflict between these two countries to lead the world, although Beijing is distancing itself from any aspirations in the leadership of the world, but is betting on the development of its economy, especially the transcontinental projects, including the revival of the Silk Road, and what will benefit Participating countries should strengthen infrastructure and move their economies.

Abu Ghazaleh said that one of the most dangerous plans in this war is to try to strangle China and prevent access to energy sources, which will affect global energy prices, threatening production and export operations, as well as boycotting Chinese products.

New Maps
The implications of any possible scenario for the bilateral conflict may be not only changes in the global political map, but also new economic maps.

He predicted that at least five European countries will suffer from the crisis next year for the above reasons, while Brazil, Russia, India, China and Korea will grow at a steady rate over the next ten years. Moreover, he predicted that in the next ten years some African countries will become more developed. Gulf cooperation will continue to grow mainly due to increased oil revenues.