US President Donald Trump has turned American policy in Syria upside down, perhaps in the Middle East as a whole, in a single blow.His unilateral decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria, thus allowing the Turkish invasion of the region, puts all American objectives in grave danger. These goals include protecting the autonomous Kurdish enclave as a reward for the contribution of the Kurdish militia to the elimination of ISIS and the capture of Raqqa at the expense of thousands of lives. It also includes preventing the government of President Bashar al-Assad from regaining control of northern Syria (a very important US goal in Syria is to put an end to Iranian and Russian influence in this country), one of the main objectives of US policy in Iraq and Syria. Not to allow ISIS to reappear. But now all these goals have gone unheeded.
Washington let down
After being let down by Washington, the YPG entered a desperate alliance with the Syrian government to counter the Turkish invasion. Syrian government forces reportedly moved quickly to the Kurdish region towards the Turkish border. The Kurds justified their decision by declaring that it was the duty of the Syrian state to protect the territorial integrity of the state. This is in stark contrast to the position of the YPG, while imposing autonomy away from the Damascus government, and as a result they have to prevent Syrian government forces from entering the Kurdish autonomous region. The YPG was betting that the presence of US troops would not only deter any Turkish attack, but would prevent the Syrian government from sending its troops to the Kurdish region. The YPG and its political arm, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), appear to have abandoned their goal of autonomy in isolation from Damascus, in return for ensuring that the Kurdish people survive the Turkish offensive they fear could result in genocide.
Until recently, the YPG and its umbrella forces, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), were seen by Washington decision-makers as a barrier to Russian and Iranian military intervention, as well as their political influence in northern Syria. But now that the YPG has allied itself with the Syrian government, it is only a matter of time before Russian advisers and Iranian-backed militias can be seen operating in the Kurdish region. Russia and Iran are the main allies of the Syrian government. Russia managed to turn the civil war to the benefit of the Syrian government after providing air support, not to mention the support provided by Hezbollah, which is supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Quds Force.
Russia and Iran are clearly interested in gaining a foothold in northern Syria. Russia is also interested in gaining access to the area near the Turkish border to strengthen its negotiating power over the Idlib region in northeastern Syria. Although the Idlib region is under nominal protection of Turkey, there are many hardline Islamist factions, which Turkey faces difficulties in controlling.
Enemies
These Islamist groups are considered to be the archenemies of the Russian and Syrian governments. Moscow wants to eliminate these groups altogether, or even expel them outside Syrian territory. To this end, it carried out several air strikes on the Idlib region, in violation of the Sochi Agreement signed with Turkey in September 2018. It is still unable to impose order in Idlib. Russia's strategic position is likely to be strengthened once it enters the Kurdish region of northern Syria, bordering Idlib.
Iranian gains
Iran will also make significant gains by asserting the Syrian government's control over the Kurdish region. Iran itself faces problems with the ambitions of Kurdish separatists. Kurdish autonomy in Syria has been a source of inspiration, not only for Kurds in southeastern Turkey, but for Kurds in northwestern Iran, who have long rebelled against Iran. To the control of the Syrian government, it is in Iran's interest, as a source that Iranian Kurds could have been attracted to has been eliminated. In addition, the expansion of the Assad government's control in Kurdish areas indirectly means the spread of Iranian influence and presence in a region bordering Turkey, which Iran could not reach. This would give Iran greater influence in Syria, as well as Turkey, whose relations have always been contradictory.
Mohamed Ayoub - Professor of International Relations at the University of Michigan
Mess
Ultimately, the chaos of the Turkish invasion, coupled with the US military's withdrawal from northern Syria, would be a gift to IS. This organization not only has dormant cells in the region, but also has thousands of fighters who were locked up in the Kurdish region, under the protection of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Able to guard ISIS detainees and their families, many of these detainees managed to escape from their places of detention. It is certain that these fighters will regroup and can form the nucleus of the new IS. Many of the terrorist attacks attributed to IS have occurred in northern Syria, and such attacks are likely to increase in the near future. Some fear that this could lead to a repeat of what happened in Iraq after the US invasion in 2003, which resulted in large areas in chaos, insecurity and order, which allowed terrorist groups to multiply.
The Turkish invasion of northern Syria and US involvement in this action could herald the return of the Iraqi scenario, which in turn led to the emergence of al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia and later turned to ISIS.
If part of this scenario is to become reality, it means more suffering and chaos in a region that has so far received more than its share of both. It is clear that the hasty decision to withdraw US troops from the Kurdish region in Syria, paving the way for the Turkish invasion, not only left the Syrian Kurds with a tyrannical sense of being betrayed, but also destroyed most of the goals Washington had set for itself in Syria and the rest of the Middle East.
• Although the Idlib region is under nominal protection of Turkey, there are many hardline Islamic factions, which Turkey faces difficulties in controlling.
• The Kurdish People's Protection Forces (YPG) and its political arm, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), seem to have abandoned their goal of autonomy in return for ensuring the survival of the Kurdish people in front of the Turkish attack, fearing genocide.