According to the results of the elections held in the country, the new president of Argentina was opposition leader Alberto Fernandez, ally of ex-head of state Christina Kirchner. According to preliminary estimates, already in the first round of elections, the politician managed to gain more than 48% of the vote, while about 40.5% of the citizens expressed support for the current leader Mauricio Macri. According to the electoral law of Argentina, the victory in the first round is won by the candidate, who has gained either more than 45% of the vote or ahead of the nearest rival by more than 10%.
Mauricio Macri has already congratulated his opponent on the election victory, inviting him to a meeting, and Fernandez accepted this offer.
60-year-old lawyer Alberto Fernandez led the Argentine government in the mid-2000s during the presidency of Nestor Kirchner, and then his wife Christina Kirchner, who won the election in 2007 and was in power until 2015. It was with her support that Fernandez entered the election race in May 2019. Now Kirchner will take the post of vice president of Argentina.
Thus, the political block of the Peronists returns to power after several years in opposition, experts say. Recall that the followers of the ideas of President Juan Peron, who pursued a socially oriented policy while maintaining market relations, are called Peronists in Argentina. Peronists are traditionally opposed in Argentina to neoliberal ideas.
- Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner welcome their supporters in Buenos Aires
- Reuters
- © Agustin Marcarian
Pre-default state
Leftists will form a government in a difficult period for Argentina - the country is balancing on the verge of default. At the end of September, IMF acting head David Lipton said in an interview with Bloomberg that the financial program for Argentina would be suspended due to serious economic and political uncertainty in the country. As Lipton noted, the IMF will "work for the subsequent resumption of relations" with Argentina.
Recall that in 2018, the Macri government agreed with the International Monetary Fund on an unprecedented $ 56 billion stand-by assistance program for several years.
However, in the early summer of 2019, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde admitted that an agreement with Buenos Aires was concluded without taking into account all the circumstances of the economic situation in Argentina.
“I think we underestimated (problems. - RT ) when, together with the Argentine authorities, they began to develop a program aimed at stimulating economic growth,” Lagarde said, speaking at the American Institute of Entrepreneurship in Washington.
In late August, leading international rating agencies downgraded Argentina's rating to a pre-default level.
- People get food rations in Buenos Aires
- Reuters
- © Enrique Marcarian
According to experts, one of the key problems of the Argentinean economy is the budget deficit. To overcome it, Macri began to cut government spending, which provoked a wave of social protests in the country. However, government measures still did not help to get the economy out of the crisis and overcome the budget deficit - the country's leadership was forced to seek help from the IMF.
Predictions about the upcoming Macri defeat in the elections began to appear in August, after the politician was behind Alberto Fernands following the results of nationwide primaries.
As explained in a conversation with RT, Doctor of Economics, professor, head of the Center for Iberian Studies of the ILA RAS Peter Yakovlev, The reason for the loss of Macri is due to the fact that he could not fulfill the promises given to voters.
“He did not have enough time to rectify the situation, and in addition, he made a number of strategic mistakes. It was necessary to act surgically, not therapeutically. At the same time, Argentina was noticeably affected by the policy of Trump, who limited the import of Argentinean goods as part of his protectionist policy, ”the expert explained.
The new president of Argentina promises to abolish the unpopular austerity measures introduced by Macri. Fernandez plans to stimulate economic growth according to John Keynes's recipes - through stimulating demand by raising salaries and pensions. At the same time, the politician hopes to remain within the framework of a balanced budget and prevent default.
However, experts are not sure that he will be able to carry out the planned program.
“It is difficult to imagine how Fernandez will solve the problems that have accumulated in the economy. It cannot be ruled out that the new government will be forced to default, ”said Pyotr Yakovlev.
A similar point of view is shared by the head of the Center for Economic Research, ILA RAS Lyudmila Simonova. According to the expert, those problems in the financial sector that the right had to face will have to deal with the left, because IMF loans will still need to be repaid.
“Therefore, the left is unlikely to be able to return to increasing social spending now. Fernandez has very little room for maneuver and he will have to fulfill obligations to the IMF, ”the expert explained in a comment to RT.
“Normal development of relations”
The election victory for the protégé of Christina Kirchner may lead to a certain correction in the foreign policy of Buenos Aires, experts say. As Juan Tokatlian, a professor at the Argentine University of Torquato di Tella, previously noted in his article, the Macri government emphasized rapprochement with Washington, demonstrating a clear pro-Western position. In relations with Moscow, on the contrary, there has been a cooling period.
At first, this course contrasted with the policies pursued by the predecessor of Macri, Christina Kirchner, who, during her years in the presidency, built strong relations with Russia. In 2015, Kirchner and Vladimir Putin signed a statement by the Presidents on the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership between the countries following the results of negotiations in the Kremlin.
However, over time, Mauricio Macri also came up with the idea of the need to establish cooperation with Moscow.
- Vladimir Putin meeting with Mauricio Macri in Buenos Aires
- Reuters
- © Marcos Brindicci
In early 2018, the politician made his first official visit to Russia to negotiate with Vladimir Putin. The visit was the starting point for enhancing cooperation between Moscow and Buenos Aires: at the end of 2018, the parties signed a strategic document on the Russian-Argentine partnership in the peaceful use of atomic energy, and in October 2019 agreed on cooperation in the field of research and use of outer space in peaceful purposes.
According to Peter Yakovlev, the proximity of Argentina and Russia is largely predetermined by economic factors.
“If Argentine companies have to compete with US manufacturers on the world market, since they produce similar goods, then Argentina is developing organic cooperation with Russia. Argentina exports what Russia buys, and vice versa - we supply those goods for which the Argentine side is in demand. Therefore, cooperation continued under any regime. Now we can predict the normal development of relations between the two countries, ”Yakovlev explained.
Social abyss
Speaking about the development of political processes in Latin America, experts note their asynchrony. In some countries of the region, left-wing parties and politicians are in power mainly - for example, in 2018, Manuel Lopez Obrador won the election in Mexico, whom opponents compared with Hugo Chavez. In Uruguay, where the first round of presidential elections was also held on October 27, Tabare Vasquez, a member of the center-left Broad Front, led the country for four years. The outcome of the current election is still unknown - leftist candidate Daniel Martinez gained a little more than 40% of the vote, while his opponent from the center-right camp received about 30%.
At the same time, a few years ago, in a number of Latin American countries, center-right came to power. As part of this cycle, liberal economic reforms were launched in several large countries of South America, designed, according to the authors' intention, to improve the economy.
These efforts came up against serious resistance: while in Argentina, the left managed to take revenge following the results of legitimate elections, in some countries the contradictions between the proponents of the market and social courses resulted in street battles.
- Protests in Chile
- Reuters
- © Pablo Sanhueza
In early October, a wave of protests swept Ecuador - the population was outraged by the plans of the Lenin government Moreno to abolish state subsidies for fuel. Protesters began blocking roads, oil fields, access to the capital's airport and other infrastructure. As a result, under pressure from the population, the authorities were forced to repeal the decree on increasing retail fuel prices.
A similar conflict between the country's leadership and the population flared up in Chile, where the center-right government of Sebastian Pinhera tried to raise the price of travel by metro. This caused a storm of protest from citizens; some days over a million protesters took to the streets of the Chilean capital.
On October 26, the President of Chile was forced to appeal to the government to resign to form a new cabinet against the backdrop of ongoing street protests.
As Nikolai Kalashnikov, deputy director of the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained in an interview with RT, in Chile, Ecuador and Argentina, the political pendulum swung to the left after the “right turn” that happened in Latin America several years ago.
“It is not a fact that street appearances in Chile and Ecuador will eventually provoke a change of power, but this is a clear signal that the politics of the right are failing,” the expert noted.
According to Lyudmila Simonova, the protests are associated not so much with ideological contradictions as with attempts by civil society to influence specific decisions of the authorities.
“Latin America has a very strong civil society that instantly responds to any attempts by the state to step on its rights. But it is unlikely that a general roll to the left will take place on the continent now, the protests simply correct the actions of the authorities in the context of a large social gap, ”the expert explained.
Peter Yakovlev also called social inequality a key reason for protests and the change of the ruling parties in the framework of legitimate elections. According to the expert, despite the stormy street performances, the traditional distinction between left and right in Latin America has slightly smoothed out.
“The problem is that only very limited segments of the population have benefited from the fruits of economic development, even in a relatively rich country like Chile. And most citizens did not see a significant improvement in their living conditions. Inequality and social injustice are the biggest problem that neither right nor left governments can solve, ”the expert summed up.