After US President Donald Trump announced the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in an operation carried out by US special forces in Syria, questions loom over who will succeed him in the leadership of the organization, and what remains of the organization and its organizational structure and capabilities.
In this context, press and research reports indicate that al-Baghdadi was not killed when the real leader of the organization and its operations, after working to delegate his duties to a commission authorized since his last video appearance in April.
The most widely-used name as Baghdadi's successor is Iraqi Turkman Abdullah Qardash, also known as Haji Abdullah al-Afri, from the Tal Afar district of western Mosul in northern Iraq.
Qardash has been described as Baghdadi's successor since the state-run Amaq media arm announced in August that Baghdadi had nominated him "to take care of the conditions of Muslims," according to the agency.
Newsweek magazine quoted a regional intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity or country, that Qardash would play Baghdadi. The official pointed out that Baghdadi had become a symbolic leader who does not lead the operations, adding that "all he was doing Baghdadi to say yes or no, but no planning."
Who is Abdullah Qardash?
Qardash was an Iraqi army officer under Saddam Hussein, the magazine said, adding that information about him was scarce.
According to Iraqi security expert Fadhil Abu Ragheef, he was previously held at Bucca Prison (Basra) and had previously held a legitimate public position for al-Qaeda, a graduate of the Grand Imam College in Mosul.
Abu Raghef added that Qardash was close to Abu Alaa al-Afri (deputy Baghdadi who was killed in 2016), and pointed out that his father was an outspoken and rational orator.
He said that Qardash was characterized by "cruelty, authoritarianism and militancy," and pointed out that he was the first recipients of Baghdadi during the fall of Mosul.
On the other hand, the researcher in the affairs of Islamic groups Hassan Abu Haniyeh that the Islamic State, despite its defeat in Iraq and Syria and the killing of its leader, Baghdadi, it still has a self-power. He said in a program on Al Jazeera that conditions would make the organization stronger and provide new momentum.
Abu Haniyeh added that the organization has strength in terms of the solidity of the organizational structure, referring to the process of restructuring the organization since the loss of the Baghouz pocket (Deir Ezzor province in eastern Syria) last March. Al-Baghouz was the last pocket of ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
Abu Haniyeh explained that the organization has adopted decentralization to conduct its operations since then, and pointed out that it is now in eight countries, and continues to control large areas in Africa.
The Pentagon estimates that between 14,000 and 18,000 operatives remain in Iraq and Syria.
"Just as bin Laden's death did not lead to the end of al-Qaeda, I expect that getting rid of al-Baghdadi will not be the end of ISIS," said former Pentagon official Dana Strawl.