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The Argentineans will vote this Sunday for the presidential election but also legislative and partial senatorial. Elections taking place in a context of serious economic and social crisis. Inflation and poverty have risen sharply.
► What are the chances of re-election of Mauricio Macri?
President Mauricio Macri is standing for re-election and, according to polls published in recent weeks, the current leader is not in a good position for Sunday. The center-right president, who is highly criticized for his handling of the economic crisis, is credited with 30 to 35% of the vote, against 50% for his main opponent, Peronist Alberto Fernández.
During the mandatory primaries in August, a sort of general rehearsal of the presidential, Alberto Fernández had obtained 49% of the vote, ahead of 15 points Mauricio Macri. If this trend is confirmed, it would mean that Alberto Fernández could be directly elected this Sunday. Because in Argentina, it suffices that a candidate gets 45% of the votes to be elected in the first round.
► Should we fear a return of Peronism?
Peronism is the broad Argentine political movement, little indefinable as it actually brings many currents. It is a popular movement that has been in power for twelve years between 2003 and 2015 during the governments of Néstor Kirchner first, then his wife Cristina Kirchner. The former president of the left appears today on the ticket of Alberto Fernández, as a candidate for the vice presidency.
She chose to stand aside for this election because she knows that her personality is particularly divisive. Many Argentineans criticize him for being involved in numerous corruption scandals. Cristina Kirchner is currently indicted in thirteen cases.
► What is the situation that the next government will inherit?
Argentina is on the brink of economic abyss. With 55% inflation, a high unemployment rate, 35% of Argentines living below the poverty line, the next president will have to face a critical situation. Alberto Fernández promised investments in education and scientific research, but in fact, if he is elected, he will have little leeway to turn his back on the austerity policies put in place by the current president.
To deal with the crisis, the Macri government sought the help of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which decided to grant him a loan of 57 billion dollars. But most of this money has already been paid to the country, and there is almost nothing left today. The government used a large part of it to repay other debts. With a recession of over 3% of GDP projected for 2019, Argentina will need time to emerge from the crisis.