The deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine Dmitry Sologub said that the Russian Gazprom will allegedly be forced to continue pumping gas through the Ukrainian gas transmission system (GTS) in 2020, due to its contractual obligations.

He claims that Kiev made such a forecast based on current contracts of the Russian state corporation, the volume of gas in Ukrainian storages, and the process of commissioning pipelines bypassing Ukraine.

“Given all these factors, the incoming data in order to fulfill its obligations, Gazprom will have to pump about 50 billion cubic meters through Ukraine. At a minimum, ”Segodnya.ua publication reports its words.

However, Sologub recognized the likelihood of a “temporary" interruption of transit. According to him, the Naftogaz of Ukraine and Ukrtransgaz are preparing for this scenario.

It is worth noting that, according to statistics cited by Naftogaz, in 2018, 86.8 billion cubic meters of Russian gas passed through Ukraine to Europe. At the same time, the combined throughput capacity of Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream, the commissioning of which is scheduled for the end of this year, is 86.5 billion cubic meters per year. Thus, these indicators are almost equal.

If necessary, Gazprom will be able to do without transit through Ukraine - with the help of gas storage facilities in Europe, said Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies. In his opinion, such statements indicate that Kiev is trying to bargain for itself more favorable conditions.

“For some time Russia will be able to operate due to gas storages located in Europe. In my opinion, Ukraine is trying to bargain in a situation where no one is bargaining with it, ”he told RT.

According to the Ukrainian political scientist and economist Alexander Dudchak, the way in which Sologub commented on the situation could adversely affect the negotiations on a new treaty.

“Such statements do not contribute to a constructive solution to the problem and the completion of disputes to the benefit of both parties. The tone of the statement is not clear, ”he emphasized in an interview with RT.

"Ball on the Ukrainian side"

Russia has repeatedly emphasized its readiness to continue transit through Ukraine even after the end of the current contract on December 31. In order to conclude a new agreement, trilateral negotiations are being held between Moscow, Kiev and Brussels.

The last consultations in the framework of the negotiation process took place on September 19. According to their participants, they passed in a constructive manner.

“In my opinion, the consultations were very constructive, in a working order. Maybe this is the first time in many of our recent tripartite consultations of this kind, ”said Alexander Novak, head of the Russian Ministry of Energy.

At the same time, Ukraine insists on an agreement on European law. To this end, Kiev seeks to adopt appropriate standards and create the structures necessary to work according to new standards.

According to the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, Ukraine does not have time to switch to European legislation before the end of the year, and therefore, he sees the only option is to extend the current contract to bring prices to market conditions.

“We are in contact with them and the questions that are asked - they know. The ball is on the Ukrainian side, ”Miller said during a conversation with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on October 18.

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At the same time, Alexander Dudchak recalled that Ukraine is more interested in continuing the transit. Earlier in Europe they warned that the situation with the country's gas transportation system could lead to the collapse of all systems.

“This is just Ukraine that does not have the right to stop transit through its territory. For her, stopping transit will be a powerful blow to the entire economy. The statement that Russia will be forced to pump gas in the future is a wrong statement of the issue, ”the political scientist stated.

“We look forward to studying this issue”

The fact that Russia agrees to extend the existing contract for one year was also noted by President Vladimir Putin. According to him, such an option is available if Ukraine does not have time to adopt European legislation.

There are also unresolved legal disputes between Gazprom and Naftogaz. The Russian side emphasized that in order to conclude a new transit agreement, it is necessary to refuse claims mutually.

“We are waiting for them ... to study this issue and evaluate our proposal, because we believe that this is, indeed, the basis for normal relations in the future, from January 1, 2020. In order to continue interaction, to work in accordance with the legislation that will be adopted in Ukraine, ”said Novak.

At the same time, according to the head of the Russian Ministry of Energy, Kiev did not send Moscow any notifications to this effect.

It is worth noting that Russia also offers Ukraine to switch to direct purchases of blue fuel. According to Miller, this will reduce the cost of energy for consumers by one fifth.

“At the same time, we must understand that our deliveries will, of course, be much cheaper than reverse supplies from Western Europe - this is practically the same Russian gas. And we said that the price of gas for end consumers in Ukraine for direct deliveries can be up to 20% minus in relation to the current level, ”said the head of Gazprom, noting that Kiev should“ give a clear and clear answer ”on the issue of direct supplies.