• At October 21, Sanchez continues to fall and Vox makes the 'procés' sentence profitable
  • At October 17, the PSOE falls below 28-A, the PP is approaching and Vox is placed as the third force
  • 10-N. So are the polls

The troubled waters of street violence in Catalonia have entered a phase of tense calm, perhaps waiting for the weekend, while the public focus is now directed to the exhumation of Francisco Franco, a new event in full pre-campaign capable of provoking shakes in the intention of the voters.

At the moment, the PSOE seems to pick up some fruit of the Catalan distension and contains its downward slide, although the brake is not powerful enough to allow it to recover the ribbon of the 123 seats that won the 28-A.

According to the tracking of Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO, a real turnaround in the forecasts would be necessary for Pedro Sánchez to see his aspiration to win the elections again with a result substantially better than last spring. The prediction, on October 23, is 122 deputies, one less than those occupied so far by the PSOE in Congress.

The PP, meanwhile, is consolidated at the level of one hundred deputies. The survey gives him 99. The popular move, one up one down, on this level since the beginning of the month. The party seems to have found comfortable ground by moderating the discourse, tempering the tone of its leader's interventions and tweaking the lists that seem to have pleased his potential voters.

Pablo Casado flees in this campaign of the inflamed verb and without a doubt, judging by the prognostic forecasts, the image of greater maturity that he projects benefits him.

Just the opposite happens to Citizens. The formation led by Albert Rivera has entered auger. Tracking reserves bad news for each delivery. His fall is unstoppable for now. A little more than two weeks for the polls to open, their prospects are appalling. Now he would barely get 8.8% of the votes and his harvest of seats -18 seats- would not even reach a third of what he obtained in April.

The speech of its leader, unlike the one that Casado threads, exceeds in decibels. The voters who managed to bring together in the April campaign with a liberal offer with clear progressive nuances and far from ideological dogmatism, now flee in all directions.

Citizens bleed to the right and left as if those who were excited in April had lost confidence in the proposals of a party that was called to be the balancing piece of multiparty.

Citizens already lose 14% of their voters in favor of the PP; 8% in favor of the PSOE and 9% in favor of Vox. Conversely, the percentage of voters who transfer these political forces is almost negligible. In no case reaches 2%.

Rivera's party is also, along with the PSOE, the one that registers a larger bag of voters tempted by abstention. Almost 11% of its former voters could stay home on 10-N. In the case of the PSOE the percentage amounts to 12%.

Vox, on the other hand, still has the hope to end up being the third political force of the Congress. It is true that the expected percentage of votes that is recorded is slightly lower than that of Unidos Podemos, the party located in the antipodes of the political globe, but the geographical distribution of its electorate benefits it to the point that, in seats, those of Santiago Abascal continue to surpass those of Pablo Iglesias. The survey predicts 35 seats for them, one less than those predicted last week, but 11 more than those achieved in their election premiere last April.

The radical right-wing party, in any case, could take advantage of Franco's exhumation, agglutinating voters who flatly reject it, either out of nostalgia for the dictatorship or by repudiating the way in which the process has been carried out by the Government of Pedro Sánchez.

Be that as it may, if something catches the attention of the Vox voters, it is the firm loyalty that, on this second occasion, they are willing to show the party. A solid 80% say they will choose their ballot again. No other political force can boast of such fidelity.

The electoral forecasts for the rest of the formations barely register changes. Thus, the new party led by Íñigo Errejón, Más País, seems to have reached its ceiling between 4% and 5% of the electorate. If he did, he would occupy seven seats in Congress.

The independent forces, ERC and JxCat, have remained at the same levels for several weeks. The first with huge advantage over the second.

With these wicks, the formation of government after the elections remains uncertain. The left-wing bloc - PSOE, United We Can and More Country - is far from the absolute majority. The help of independence continues to be necessary. Nor is there enough sum on the right. Between the two blocks the difference is 10 seats in favor of the first.

Sánchez and Casado, the best rated

The Spaniards are demanding and strict. The assessment that current political leaders deserve is rather poor. None of them, in the opinion of the voters, get close to the approved one.

Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) and Pablo Casado (PP) are the two politicians who get the best score. To the socialist leader, current president of the acting Government, the voters grant a 3.78. The PP leader is awarded a 3.62.

The ranking of notes closes with the leaders located at the ideological extremes. Pablo Iglesias (UP) achieves a 3.24 and Santiago Abascal (Vox), a 2.97.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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  • PSOE
  • Citizens
  • Vox
  • United We Can
  • PP
  • More Country
  • Iñigo Errejón
  • Pedro Sanchez
  • Pablo Casado
  • ERC
  • Albert rivera
  • Politics
  • General elections

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