The most important message today is that the interest rate will remain at a very low level for a long time to come. The Riksbank has one goal - a lasting inflation rate of 2 percent over time. At the same time as inflation expectations have fallen, the Riksbank considers in its analysis that inflation should steadily tick upwards. Above all, the Riksbank believes that we will “import” inflation through a continued weak krona.

It is understandable that the Riksbank wants to leave the negative interest rate policy behind. It is tricky to explain in a situation where we have had a boom. But at the same time, it is a strange situation where Sweden and the outside world are now entering a slowdown and then there is no hike in interest rates.

Longer than before

According to Stefan Ingves, we are now in a normal business cycle - he expects inflation to be around 2 percent and then he can also raise interest rates. But it will be strange mathematics that the Riksbank then finds a slowdown in the economy and great uncertainty and with the same reasoning decided to leave the interest rate at 0 percent all the way into 2021. It is considerably longer than previously stated.

Braces and waistband

As usual, it is also the case that the Riksbank has chosen both braces and straps in its analysis. Should the financial uncertainties change, the bank opens up to both lower and raise interest rates. The repo rate should work so that it controls our other interest rates that we meet in society - savings rates and mortgages and either increase the activity in the economy or slow it down.

In a situation where the wheels of an economy are starting to spin more slowly - to signal then that it is time to raise interest rates and then let it remain record low is strange math.