After the Ethiopian warning .. Is Egypt using force to defend the "lifeline"?

Negotiations on the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam between Egypt and Ethiopia have reached a dead end amid escalation from both sides, where pro-regime Egyptian media have raised the frequency of their threats and allusions to the military option to prevent Addis Ababa from damaging Egypt's share of the Nile water. A force that can prevent it from completing the dam.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed's warning came at a critical time, with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi expected to meet in Russia. Of course, the dam file is the most prominent topic of discussion between Ethiopia and Egypt, which appears to be seeking Russian mediation to resolve the negotiations.

It was clear from the tone spoken by the Ethiopian Prime Minister before his country's parliament on Tuesday, that he wanted to send a message to Egypt without mentioning explicitly. Despite his friendliness in front of the cameras, this is the first time in Addis Ababa that statements have been made about war, a willingness to use force and the mobilization of millions of troops to defend the dam.

Egypt, which considers the Nile as the lifeblood of the Nile, proposed to Ethiopia to release 40 billion cubic meters of water each year, and to release more water if the water level behind the High Dam in southern Egypt drops to 165 meters, but Ethiopia rejected the proposal without debate and said it violates its sovereignty. It also violates the agreement signed with Egypt and Sudan on the fair and reasonable use of the Nile water.

Addis Ababa says it is not aimed at harming Egypt's interests, and the purpose of the dam is to generate electricity. Egypt, which receives about 90% of its fresh water needs across the Nile, fears the negative impact of filling the dam reservoir on the flow of its annual share of water, and seeks international intervention through a fourth party (along with Ethiopia and Sudan) to resume negotiations, Addis Ababa also rejects it and considers it unjustified.

In a statement, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said in response to the Ethiopian statements that it had received an invitation from the US administration to a meeting of the foreign ministers of the three countries Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in Washington, and Cairo expressed its acceptance of the invitation in an effort to "break the stalemate surrounding the negotiations."

Regardless of what Sisi and Abi Ahmed's talks in Russia on the dam could produce, or this expected meeting in Washington, talking about Egypt's options if mediation and diplomacy fail is geared toward the military option, considering the dam the way the Ethiopians want to fill it, is dangerous. Raiding on the Egyptian national security. But can Egypt actually resort to this option?

Constraints
There are facts and facts that will greatly affect any Egyptian decision regarding the military option, including with regard to geography and politics, as well as military capabilities and the overlapping of regional relations and internal problems of both Egypt and Ethiopia.

The most prominent of these obstacles is the distance between Egypt and Ethiopia, which exceeds 2500 km, which is reflected in the choice of the way that the dam will be attacked.Although Egypt beats Ethiopia militarily in quantity and quality, the fighter aircraft owned by Egypt cannot fly all this distance without refueling. .

If the problem of refueling is solved by providing aircraft in this regard, the Egyptian aviation has to go through the Sudanese airspace, which is a second problem. The current political conditions in Sudan may make Khartoum prefer not to get involved in such a problem with its neighbor Ethiopia.

If Cairo chooses to attack the dam via special forces, it will also need Sudan, which was evident in the early days of the crisis. The Stratfor Center for Security Studies published e-mails dating back to 2010, detailing a conversation between then-General Intelligence chief Omar Suleiman and then president of the republic. Mohammed Hosni Mubarak.

According to these letters, Egypt obtained Sudan's approval to build an Egyptian military base in the Kosti area to accommodate Egyptian special forces "which may be sent to Ethiopia to destroy water facilities on the Blue Nile."

If Egypt chooses to attack its dams through other neighboring countries such as Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia, it will also face obstacles, most notably that these countries may fear the Ethiopian reaction, as well as that Addis Ababa has recently improved its relations with its neighbors politically and economically.

Naval power
It remains for Egypt to use its navy, the largest in the Middle East and North Africa, with German submarines, two French helicopter carriers, a French frigate and four US frigates. But as Ethiopia is a landlocked country with no seas or oceans, Egypt will not be able to attack it by sea, but it can use this fleet to send troops and equipment to Eritrea.

Another factor that will determine the nature of the Egyptian response is the most appropriate time to hit the dam.According to experts, beating it after filling its reservoir will have catastrophic effects on Ethiopia's neighboring countries, including Sudan, which may be exposed to flooding caused by the collapse of the dam, which may reach Egypt. The dam is hit in its final stages of construction and before filling the reservoir, so that its reconstruction becomes almost impossible.

Ethiopia, in turn, is a significant country, not to mention the network of international and economic relations in which the dam itself had a major role. Major and influential states, such as China and France, have common interests, and Egypt's military strike against the Renaissance Dam may be an angry reaction from these countries.

Adding to this is Egypt's internal problems, as it suffers from a difficult economic situation, as well as the worsening political situation of the Sisi regime, which may rule out the idea of ​​a war that could pose a threat to its survival, especially if the process fails or does not resolve the crisis.

Internationalization of the crisis
For these reasons, observers are unlikely to take Egypt on any military step in the current situation, and may resort to the internationalization of the issue as the crisis threatens regional stability to reflect negatively on international security.

In this context, Egypt may resort to many international bodies - including the United States and the World Bank - know the problem well, and interested to have an agreement between the countries of the Nile Basin. If Ethiopia refuses, Egypt will still have to complain to the Security Council, considering that Ethiopia is violating water rights, which threatens international peace and security.