Canada's legislative elections on Monday, October 21, look like a referendum for or against the Trudeau government. Four years after a surprise victory, Justin Trudeau and his Liberal party are neck and neck with their main rivals, Andrew Scheer's Conservatives.
The campaign has indeed ended on a near perfect equality in voting intentions between the two major parties that alternate to power since 1867. Never seen for decades according to commentators. A poll by the Nanos Research Institute for the Globe and Mail and CTV, released Saturday, gives the Liberals in power, 32.6% of the vote, before the Conservatives, to 30.3%. The New Democratic Party (NDP), which fights the same voters as the Liberals, would come third with 18.4%.
After blowing a wind of youth and modernity on his country, the outgoing Prime Minister is in disgrace and should have trouble recovering. The former rising star of Canadian politics has tried to mobilize his troops, recalling that if the polls say it is true, it is the end of the absolute majority he has had since 2015. "It is possible that Canadians wake up on the 22nd. October with a Conservative government that will aim to eliminate the only plan Canada has ever had to fight climate change and cut budgets and bring back austerity measures, "he said Thursday, October 17 at a meeting in Trois Riviere, Quebec.
Beautiful promises to scandals
The 47-year-old Prime Minister came to power after ten years of Conservative rule with promises of change and new politics. During the first months of his tenure, he worked hard to deliver on his commitments through a series of reforms. He then surrounded himself with a parity government, opened wide the doors of Canada to tens of thousands of Syrian refugees. He has also improved relations with the Aboriginal community and has become a champion of the fight against global warming. The whole world has watched with interest, if not admiration, the first steps in power of this multilateral leader who was crying out that "Canada is back" on the international stage. He even drew the compliments of his counterparts, including then US President Barack Obama.
This state of grace now seems far away as his government faces a series of scandals. Trudeau's popularity dropped after a first deal. In August 2019, an official report accused him of a conflict of interest for putting pressure on his Minister of Justice to intervene in legal proceedings against a Quebec company, Snc-Lavalin, prosecuted for corruption.
A few weeks before the legislative elections, his popularity rating continued to drop after Time Magazine published several photos and a video showing him the face of black faces at private parties. These images go back to the 1990s and 2001 for the most recent. Justin Trudeau apologized for these "blackfaces", but the damage was already done.
Its contradictions in terms of the environment have also weakened it over the months. In 2018, the decision to nationalize an oil pipeline attracted the wrath of ecologists. That year, the Liberal government bought Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipeline, which links Alberta to British Columbia, for C $ 4.5 billion (€ 3 billion). Objective: accelerate Alberta's export of oil to new foreign markets. In exchange, the government promised to invest the profits in green technologies. This nationalization was seen as a betrayal by many Canadians committed to the environment, and could cost some votes.
According to observers, by wanting to please everyone, Trudeau could lose on all fronts. "He is criticized by the right for not going far enough in economic development and by the left for buying this pipeline," said Daniel Beland, a political scientist at McGill University in Montreal.
Who to govern?
In addition to being a test for Justin Trudeau, this vote can lead to no party being able to govern alone. Liberals or conservatives should contend with the support of small parties to hope for a majority.
The Prime Minister can still hope to win if he manages to convince the millennial generation that has already largely supported it in 2015. But Justin Trudeau faces competition from the leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP) Jagmeet Singh, one of the revelations of the election campaign. This 40-year-old lawyer, elected in 2017 at the head of his party, manages to garner votes among the youth of the left. In recent weeks, he has had harsh words for the prime minister, accusing him of putting the blinker "on the left" when he is campaigning, "but turning right" when it comes to making decisions. "Progressive voting is us," he told AFP. Justin Trudeau "protects the profits of big companies instead of helping families If you want someone who really wants to fight the climate crisis, cancel oil subsidies and deal with social inequalities", then it's the NDP that it is necessary to elect, assures Jagmeet Singh.
Justin Trudeau remained discreet about his options if he does not manage to obtain a majority. In Canada, minority governments have rarely been in power for more than two and a half years. If such a scenario looms, the Prime Minister could slow down even more his reforms that have already after a single mandate disappointed his most loyal supporters.