Lebanon: Five questions to understand what is happening

The crises are not unusual for Lebanon, writes Dana Khraish and Lynn Noueihed in an analysis published in The Washington Post. They have been hit by a 15-year civil war that ended in 1990.

This time, however, the unrest is different. It is a result of issues of high cost and citizens' pockets, not of sectarian violence or regional conflict.

The authors believe that there are:
Five questions to understand what is happening :

1. What is the cause of the outbreak of violence?
The immediate cause of the protests was a government plan to levy a tax - estimated at 20 US cents from 2020 - on the user's first daily call using WhatsApp, which has become a major means of communication throughout the Middle East and elsewhere around the world.

Some media have gone so far as to describe Lebanon's protests as a "WhatsApp revolution", but the new cartoons were merely a turning point to months of public frustration at the government's inability to break through an impending debt crisis.

2- Why this passion about WhatsApp?
Mobile phone charges in Lebanon are among the most expensive in the region. To save money, many Lebanese rely heavily on WhatsApp and other free communications applications.

3. How bad is the economic plight?
Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world and is struggling to find new sources of funding as the inflows on which it has traditionally depended are over.

The government also discussed a gradual increase in VAT, which currently stands at 11%, and imposes gasoline duties as part of its planned austerity budget.

Many Lebanese blame decades of nepotism, corruption and exploitation among the political class for the economic plight of the nation.

4. What happens if the government falls?
The Hariri administration is a fragile coexistence of most political groupings.

Opposition to austerity measures, for example, are ministers allied to Hezbollah.

One concern is that if Hariri and his allies resign, Lebanon could end up in a Hezbollah-dominated government, making it difficult to attract investment and aid.

Even Hariri's main rivals within the government have warned that the collapse of the government could hit the economy and lead to chaos.

What does this mean for the Middle East?
A power vacuum or other government failure will have implications for other conflicts that keep the region on the brink, including the war in neighboring Syria, the wider power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the conflict with neighboring Israel.

The broader divisions in the region of this small country often lead to bloody results.

Finally, Israel considers Hezbollah a major threat with its vast arsenal of missiles and support from Iran.