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Anti-Brexit demonstration this Saturday in London. REUTERS / Henry Nicholls

Twelve days before the European Union's exit date, British MPs imposed on Boris Johnson on Saturday to request a postponement of Brexit without taking a decision on the agreement reached in Brussels. Here are the 5 possible scenarios.

1. Report
This assumption became more likely on Saturday since the Boris Johnson deal was not voted. According to a law passed in September, the Prime Minister must ask the European Union for a postponement of three months, until 31 January 2020. If the European Union proposes a different date, Boris Johnson must accept it. The Prime Minister has always opposed any postponement and said Saturday that he does not intend to "negotiate" a deadline with the European Union. Without explaining what he meant by that. Europeans must accept a postponement unanimously.

2. Exit with agreement
Parliament rejected its decision, but did not reject the Brexit agreement. Boris Johnson assured that his government would introduce next week the draft laws implementing the compromise. Even if a postponement is requested and accepted by the EU, the UK can theoretically leave the European Union at the end of the month if all the necessary texts are adopted by then. The United Kingdom would leave the European Union on 31 October at 2300 GMT. A short extension can also be granted to allow MPs to vote the agreement.

3. Exit without agreement
This is the default assumption if the agreement is not approved by the end of the month and no postponement is decided, either because Boris Johnson refuses to request it despite the law, or because that the Europeans refuse it. This scenario is particularly feared by economic circles, who fear a plummet of the pound (causing a ricochet price increase), or even a recession, with the restoration of tariffs and the specter of shortages of food, gasoline and medicines. The Boris Johnson government has been actively preparing for this scenario, multiplying the billions of pounds announcements intended to cushion the shock.

4. Early elections
Regardless of the form chosen for Brexit, the political crisis in which the United Kingdom is plunged is such, as was shown again on Saturday, that early parliamentary elections seem inevitable. All political parties are actively preparing for it. Elections can be called if the main opposition party, Labor, supports a motion of censure, which it has so far refused, wanting to rule out the assumption of an exit without agreement. The prime minister also made two attempts to call the elections but failed because of opposition support. For him, this election is the only chance to regain the majority he has gradually lost over the defections or exclusions of rebel deputies.

5. New referendum
This is the option advocated by the Labor Party, the main opposition party, which tens of thousands of people on the streets of London demanded on Saturday. The idea is supported by former Prime Minister John Major (Conservative) and Tony Blair (Labor). The support of a majority of deputies in a referendum, which could revive the divisions a little more, is far from certain. And the polls do not allow to draw a clear trend as to the result.

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