• Exit from the EU. The United Kingdom and the EU reach an agreement for Brexit

Brexit has depleted virtually all political oxygen in Brussels. In the process of preparing the agenda for the European Council, the EU leaders had no idea if what was expected of them was to analyze a Brexit agreement or to discuss the terms for a new extension.

In the end, it seems that they will have to deal with both: defined the general lines for an agreement, now the EU must establish how much court it gives to the Parliament of the United Kingdom to accept or reject it.

This is because Boris Johnson is fighting on two fronts at the same time. One could make the mistake of thinking that the key negotiations have taken place between the British Prime Minister and the Michel Barnier team in the European Union. But just as important are those that the British Government is carrying out at home to achieve a majority in the House of Commons that supports the closed pact.

The analogy most used in the United Kingdom to explain what is happening is that of three-dimensional chess, with a prime minister playing on several boards at the same time. To understand the dilemma he faces, one must understand the complicated and contradictory strategies involved in keeping power at home and conducting international negotiations outside it.

Johnson not only had to think of an acceptable plan for the EU. He also had to make sure that whatever the agreement was, he would have the support of a stable majority in Parliament.

At the level of negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union, the Prime Minister's move has been surprising. He has accepted the basic principle that if he really wants a relationship with Brussels free enough for the United Kingdom to be outside EU regulations and with the ability to secure its own trade agreements, then Northern Ireland - which is part of the United Kingdom - it will not necessarily be an integral part of that economic future. It is the foundation of an agreement that was first discussed in February 2018, and which Theresa May, Johnson's predecessor, said "no British prime minister could accept."

But by incurring these sacrifices, Johnson could put himself in a checkmate situation on another board. It will be difficult for an agreement considered acceptable by the EU Member States to get Parliament's approval. The necessary steps are politically complicated. The most important piece is the DUP and make sure they don't leave the ship. In addition, Johnson would need to attract almost his entire party, 28 of whose members have already voted no to an agreement three times. Finally, everything suggests that in order to reach the agreement, he would need the support of a few parliamentarians of the Labor opposition. And it is very likely that this meant for them to lose their seat.

So why is the premier in such a hurry? If parliamentary approval of an agreement is not secured, a law passed by the House of Commons would force Johnson to request an extension to the EU this week. This involves a fundamentally electoral risk. At this time, conservatives enjoy an advantage in the polls, as Mr. Johnson brings together Brexit defenders around his Conservative Party. Meanwhile, supporters of the permanence are divided between Labor and a resurgent Liberal Democratic Party pro EU. The big electoral bet seems to be to reach an agreement and call elections.

However, the fear in Downing Street lies in whether the current conservative coalition would endure an extension, as Johnson could be subject to the wrath of the Nigel Farage Brexit Party, a powerful electoral figure in British politics that aims to outdo Johnson with the Brexit theme, which has already begun to raise its voice about what it considers "a word-only Brexit".

In the same way, bringing an agreement that results in a new rejection of Parliament poses a huge risk to the prime minister. He would face all the counterparts of having tried to agree, with Farage criticizing the commitments made with Brussels. Also, Brexit might not bring you anything good. A compromise rejected by Parliament would represent the moment of greatest vulnerability for Johnson.

Therefore the premier faces a circle that may be impossible to square. He hopes above all that this week is his first and last Council as prime minister. Even so, it is very likely that Parliament will reject its agreement and end up having to request an extension to activate Article 50. And then? Nobody knows. But elections are coming, and while the United Kingdom is in the EU, you may have to fight them. It plays a lot.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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