Two weeks before the date set for the Brexit, October 31, London and Brussels announced Thursday an agreement but its adoption by the British Parliament next Saturday, looks complicated, making the following very uncertain. In any case, "the Brexit is a marathon with hurdles" warns Alexandre Holroyd, LREM deputy of the French from abroad and rapporteur of the draft law on Brexit in the National Assembly. And a very high hedge comes Saturday ... Here are the different scenarios depending on what the British MPs decide.
The British Parliament approves
The British Parliament, meeting exceptionally on Saturday, approves the Brexit agreement. This means that Boris Johnson, by lack of an absolute majority, managed to win by then Eurosceptics DUP (Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland), his camp with the Conservatives but also the opposition, whose leader Labor's main party, Jeremy Corbyn, called for "rejecting" the text. It may be tight.
According to Isabelle Ory, Europe 1 correspondent in Brussels, the British Prime Minister told the Europeans that he was "rather confident". "He would have counted the deputies, one by one, and he thinks he has a chance that passes," says Isabelle Ory.
Some elected Labor and independent deputies of constituencies having voted "Leave" in the referendum of June 2016 are likely to support the text to avoid a "no deal". And "the side exasperation can play in favor of the agreement," said Emmanuel Duteil, head of the economic service of Europe 1. "Everyone wants to finish." Once approved in Westminster, the agreement has yet to be ratified by the European Parliament before 31 October, the date of the planned divorce.
British Parliament rejects text
Boris Johnson can not convince enough MPs. His Conservative Party in power does not have an absolute majority in Parliament, where it occupies 288 of the 650 seats. And the small Northern Ireland party DUP and the Tories called to vote against ...
For all that, do not worry about Alexandre Holroyd. The rapporteur of the draft law on Brexit in the National Assembly explains: "It was likely that the leader of the opposition calls to vote against, ditto for the North Irish.This does not mean that Parliament will reject this agree, there is a strong desire in the UK to end it. "
There could also be a new postponement of the Brexit date. Even if Boris Johnson never ceases to trumpet that the UK will leave whatever happens the European Union on October 31, a law passed last month forced him to ask for a postponement of three months Brexit lack of agreement on October 19th. If Parliament rejected the text, Boris Johnson would be forced to ask for a postponement, a perspective he abhors.
Among the solutions also possible: a Brexit without agreement. It would intervene if the British Parliament rejects the agreement and the European Union refuses a new postponement of Brexit. The exit without agreement would then take place on October 31st.
Emmanuel Duteil, Head of the Economic Department of Europe 1, concludes: "We are only at the beginning, if the agreement is validated on Saturday, it does not change anything in the immediate future. at the end of 2020. And this delay could be pushed back from one to two years ... "