- Tracking (I). The PSOE drops three seats in five days and Vox relegates Citizens to fifth place
- 10-N. Pedro Sánchez offers the reform of pensions and financing to PP and Cs so that there is a government in December
- PP.Pablo Casado believes that the PP already has the 10-N victory "a stone's throw away"
Key week in the race to the polls with the sentence of the process and the last preparations for the exhumation of Franco. Two events whose derivatives will no doubt be felt in the electoral forecasts of the political forces. The first vibrations before the earthquake have caused slight changes, less than one point, in all the matches, but they have been enough so that between two of them - Citizens and Vox - a crack of up to 10 seats is opened for the benefit of the second.
The formation led by Santiago Abascal shoots at October 11, according to the tracking of Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO , until reaching 31 seats -28-A got 24-, stepping on the heels of United Podemos, which achieves 34 , and at a great distance from the party of Albert Rivera, who suffers a new decline and only scores 21 places against the 57 he won in the last elections.
The PSOE continues in its downward curve and loses four tenths in intention to vote in just two days, but this fall is not enough to push it back in number of deputies. It remains then in 124, one more than those achieved in April but far from the overwhelming victory to which he aspired a month ago. According to the survey, it receives mostly fugitive votes from Citizens; United We can steal practically the same that he gives, and with respect to the new party of Íñigo Errejón, he suffers a bite of almost 4%.
For now, the rosary of announcements that Pedro Sánchez breaks down in his continuous rallies and electoral acts - pension subsidies, disbursements to the autonomous communities, more ease to collect the PER ... - do not seem to make too much dent in the voter, perhaps suspicious of speeches that promise a horn of plenty.
If the tremor suffers the PP, which is left seven tenths and two seats to stand at 96, mainly affected by a forecast of abstention that in its case is close to 9%. The popular t also transfer votes to Vox, but at the same time they receive voters of this formation. In the end your balance in this exchange is positive but small.
Pablo Casado's party is undoubtedly, for the moment, the most benefited by the repetition of the elections. According to all polls, he will caress the bar of the 100 seats, but he seems to run into obstacles to overcome it because, even though he is very benefited by the flow of voters who leave Citizens, he is unable to block the slit through which the ballots escape to the party. from Santiago Abascal.
Vox, today, makes good revenue from the new call to the polls. He steals votes from Citizens - up to 6.4% -, which would allow him to increase his seats considerably more than 30%. Abascal's party has before it a week that could bring even more electoral benefits by attracting with its harsh speech those who consider the judgment of the process soft and renounce the decision to remove Franco from the Valley of the Fallen.
On the opposite side of the coin is the party of Albert Rivera, who fails to tie the important benefits that 28-A obtained. Since then citizens do not manage to retain their discourse by way of change. What was originally drawn as a clearly liberal party, well established in the center, has blurred its profiles by slipping to the right and rejecting contact with the left, but in the direction that the electoral space has taken it is firmly occupied by the PP and, beyond, by Vox.
The citizens also pronounce themselves in this new installment of the survey on the perspectives that open up on the horizon on account of the judgment of the process that the Supreme Court will foreseeably make public today. The question was asked before THE WORLD published the magistrates' ruling: sedition with embezzlement instead of rebellion, as requested by the Prosecutor's Office .
In any case, 51% think that the president of the Generalitat, Quim Torra, will not comply with it and, consequently, will again challenge the State, compared to 24% who think that this time there will be no arrests to rekindle a confrontation total. Half of the PSOE voters believe there will be a new episode of contempt. The same is true for two out of three electors of PP and Vox, and almost three out of four of Cs.
Likewise, more than half of those consulted believe that the economic slowdown will ultimately condition the election campaign.
According to the criteria of The Trust ProjectKnow more
- Albert rivera
- United We Can
- Supreme Court
- Quim Torra
- Pedro Sanchez
- Pablo Casado
- Iñigo Errejón
- General elections
The PSOE drops three seats in five days and Vox relegates Citizens to fifth place
Spain Pedro Sánchez will participate in a single five-way debate with Vox on November 4
The polls do not foresee changes after the 10-N elections