“The search for an independent development model”: what political consequences may protests in Ecuador

In Ecuador, a complete ban on movements in “strategically important” areas is in effect for 24 hours. This was reported in the Command of the Armed Forces of the republic. The restrictions took effect at 15:00 local time (23:00 Moscow time) on October 12. They apply to communication facilities, ports and airports, as well as police and military institutions.

Earlier, President of Ecuador Lenin Moreno agreed to revise the fuel decree, which led to a wave of mass protests in the country. This was reported to reporters by Mayor Quito Jorge Yunda, who took on the role of mediator between the head of the republic and the demonstrators.

“Mr. President, given the complexity of the situation, agreed to analyze Decree 883 once again. In the coming hours he will meet with protest leaders, which is also one of the protesters’ demands. We urge Quito and all regions of Ecuador to stop the violence, ”said the mayor of the capital of Ecuador.

• Lenin Moreno
• Reuters
• © Carlo Allegri

Lenin Moreno also confirmed this information in a personal speech.

“At the request of local organizations and the social sector, we will analyze and revise Decree 883, examine the possible consequences to ensure that resources reach the regions, and communities and beneficiaries (recipients of benefits and allowances) manage their own resources,” the politician said.

Presidente @Lenin anuncia que el Gobierno analizará y revisará el Decreto 883. Mientras tanto el alcalde de Quito @Lorohomero y la AME median en los diálogos. pic.twitter.com/oEr87mAkq1

The protesters have already responded to the decision of the authorities: as stated by the Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Ecuador (CONAIE), the organization will take part in a direct dialogue with Moreno on the abolition or revision of Decree 883. However, this does not mean the cessation of protests - in this way the protesters intend to obtain guarantees from the authorities that the unpopular reform.

Social explosion

Recall, a wave of protests swept Ecuador in early October. The citizens were outraged by the reforms of the Moreno government, the most painful of which was the decision of the authorities to abolish state subsidies for fuel.

The protesters began to block roads, oil fields, and also blocked access to the capital's airport, disrupted the work of a number of enterprises. Workers of transport and public organizations joined in the protests, and unlimited mobilization was announced among indigenous peoples.

• Bus stop in Quito
• AFP
• © RODRIGO BUENDIA

Protesters took hostage police and military personnel. It was reported that in total during the street clashes, about 550 people were injured, hundreds were detained, five were killed.

The president was forced to leave the troubled capital and move his headquarters to the city of Guayaquil. In addition, amid growing protests, the Ecuadorian parliament suspended its work, citing a lack of security guarantees.

The head of state declared a state of emergency in the country, on October 9, Ecuador’s authorities sent a letter to the UN stating that official Quito was ready to accept “UN support that would contribute to a return to social peace and mutual understanding within the country.”

At the same time, on October 11, the President of Ecuador called on the protest leaders to discuss fuel reform with them, but the demonstrators announced that they would be ready for dialogue only after the authorities cancel the unpopular decree and stop using violence against participants in the demonstrations.

It is worth noting that in December last year, the Ecuadorian authorities already reduced fuel subsidies for the population: according to Moreno’s decree, then gas prices rose immediately by 25% - from $ 1.48 to $ 1.85 per gallon (3.78 liters). At the same time, state subsidies for fuel were then preserved for public transport and taxis.

Unpopular reforms

Earlier, the Ecuadorian authorities refused to take responsibility for the crisis, saying that the influence of external forces led to the events of recent days. Moreno stated that the leader of neighboring Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, with the participation of former President of Ecuador Rafael Correa, allegedly relates to the organization of the riots.

In an interview with RT, Correa rejected these allegations. According to him, Lenin Moreno is trying to relieve himself of responsibility for what is happening. The true cause of the crisis, according to the politician, is the neoliberal economic course that the Moreno government has chosen.

A similar point of view is shared by Nicolas Maduro, who wrote in his Twitter that the responsibility for the protests in Ecuador lies not with Caracas, but with the International Monetary Fund.

• IMF Headquarters
• Reuters
• © Yuri Gripas / File

Unpopular reforms of the Ecuadorian authorities are really carried out with the support of the IMF. This country is far from being the first one to which the fund recommends abolishing the subsidization of tariffs for energy and utilities for the population. The fund claims that such measures can increase the stability of the economy and contribute to its growth in the future. It is the reduction of state subsidies in some cases that has become one of the key conditions for the provision of IMF loans.

“Moreno adheres to the classical neoliberal policy, which involves putting everything at the mercy of the free market. But these recipes are not suitable for everyone - in some countries people are historically used to the fact that the state bears social responsibility, ”explained Boris Martynov, head of the Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy of Russia, MGIMO.

This point of view is shared by the deputy director of the Institute of Latin America, Russian Academy of Sciences Nikolai Kalashnikov. As he noted in a conversation with RT, Moreno expected to carry out unpopular reforms in exchange for IMF loans.

“The Fund always insists on measures to normalize the economy that do not take into account the interests of the population. And in practice, these reforms always cause discontent. Most likely, the authorities did not expect that an increase in gas prices would trigger such an outbreak of protests. But the population of Ecuador is characterized by social mobility and is ready to assert its rights, ”the expert explained.

“Turned politics 180 degrees”

Although in the 2017 election, Lenin Moreno ran for the ruling left bloc "Alliance Country" with the support of Rafael Correa, taking the presidency, the politician began to distance himself from former associates. He headed for liberal reforms, and also began to review Ecuador’s foreign policy ties, breaking off relations with Quito’s former allies and orienting the country to cooperate with Washington. So, one of the landmark steps of the new Cabinet was the extradition of the British police to the founder of the WikiLeaks website, Julian Assange, who, since 2012, took refuge in the territory of the Ecuadorian Embassy in London.

• Members of the Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Ecuador
• Reuters
• © Guillermo Granja

According to experts, Quito's new course has long been irritating in society.

“Moreno turned the country's policy 180 degrees, which hit its image, especially in Latin America. He headed for a dependent foreign policy, which was not to the taste of the country's population, accustomed to feeling sovereign, ”explained Boris Martynov.

Especially citizens were outraged by the fact that Moreno's reforms were carried out according to the instructions of the IMF, Nikolai Kalashnikov believes.

“In order to carry out such initiatives, you need to sit quite firmly in the presidential chair,” the expert emphasized.

Now Moreno’s position has been shaken, because the decision to revise the controversial decree means that the protesters prevailed, experts say

“Moreno’s agreement to revise the fuel decree means defeat. I think the intensity of the protest movement will begin to subside, and Moreno will be able to maintain his post until the next election. In general, the political trends in Ecuador resemble a pendulum - when a society gets tired of the left, it chooses the right, and vice versa. So there is a possibility that in the future left-wing politicians will return to power, ”Kalashnikov said.

The same opinion is shared by Boris Martynov. He believes that Ecuador should be expected to gradually return to its former policies under Correa.

“There is every chance for the left forces to regain power in Ecuador, since the country is searching for an independent political, economic, social model of development,” Martynov summed up.