The issue of climate change and its consequences has become the preoccupation of many media outlets, think tanks, governments and civil society organizations in the past. This rising interest coincided with the convening of the UN Climate Action Summit 2019 on 23 September in New York. With mass demonstrations around the world calling for urgent action to protect the climate, the summit is being held at a critical time ahead of the deadline set for Paris signatories to strengthen their national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.

In fact, when UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on all world leaders to come to New York, he asked them to come with concrete and realistic plans to strengthen their national contributions, which aim to reduce emissions by 45% by 2020 and zero emissions by 2050.

Over the past few years, several studies and analyzes have been issued dealing with the various direct and indirect impacts and risks of climate change, which have tried to help decision makers and support them with different visions and recommendations. Negative implications of climate change.

Time, for example, has devoted a whole number of issues to climate change. In fact, this is only one of five times the magazine has devoted its entire issue to one topic. While the issue has witnessed unprecedented media and political momentum, it notes the beginnings of concrete action in the coming period, while many developed and developing countries have taken several initiatives in this regard.

Indeed, climate change and its current and future impacts have been present over the past years; however, its presence has become very strong at the moment as it has shifted from being one of the future threats that may face humanity to a fateful issue that calls for immediate and urgent action, despite the momentum of the negative repercussions. There are many areas that have not been adequately considered, notably the implications of climate change for global security, and the extent to which they contribute to creating and fueling future hotbeds of conflict.

Although several studies have examined the relationship between climate change, the escalation of inter-state conflicts, and increased awareness of the relationship between climate change and security, the United Nations, the European Union and the Group of Seven, and an increasing number of countries, have pushed climate change to be a threat to global security. National analyzes and studies lack a holistic vision and methodological approach that sets clear and tangible indicators of the effects of climate change on global security and the future of conflict.

Climate change and conflict

Climate change is undoubtedly affecting basic resources, particularly food and water. These impacts contribute to increased vulnerability of states and security problems in many regions of the world. The relationship between climate change and conflict is often addressed by linking climate change with scarcity. The insights and analyzes of the effects of climate change on the conflict have been summarized in three main directions, including:

1. Internal violence and civil strife

The impact of climate change on natural resources, coupled with demographic, economic and political pressure, undermines the ability of states to meet the needs of their citizens and provide them with basic resources such as food, water, energy, etc., which in turn lead to the fragility of states and escalate internal conflicts that may lead to their collapse. Climate change may therefore be a serious challenge to the stability of States and the legitimacy of governments. According to Robert McCleman of Wilfried Laurier University in Canada, "countries that are already politically fragile are the most likely future centers of climate-related violence and forced migration." The risk is higher in the Middle East. Of the top 20 fragile states, 12 are in the Middle East, South Asia and Africa.

On the impact of climate change on the stability of countries, a comprehensive study, the first of its kind, conducted by a group of researchers in 2009, on the relationship between warming and the dangers of civil conflicts in Africa, pointed to the existence of strong historical relations between the escalation of civil wars and warming in Africa. The study noted that when combined with predictions calculated based on the “climate model” of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature indicates an increase of 54%. Soon in situations of armed conflict by the year 2030, or 393 thousand additional deaths in future wars.

2. Creating terrorist environments:

The effects of global warming often lead to geopolitical changes, the effects of which are evident if they occur in fragile areas such as the Horn of Africa, for example, according to the impact of climate change on natural resources, and may undermine the ability of nations to govern themselves, and increase the chances of Conflict, the potential consequence is to turn these areas into a breeding ground for terrorism, especially in the face of instability and rising poverty.

A study released by the Climate Diplomacy Foundation in October 2016 pointed to the specific role of non-state actors in the complex dynamics of climate change, and tried to determine how climate change acts as a risk multiplier for the growth and influence of these groups. She pointed out that the complex risks posed by climate change, vulnerability and conflict could contribute to the emergence and growth of terrorist organizations. The study concluded that the climate contributes to the growth and rise of armed groups, as follows:

- Climate change contributes to increased vulnerability of States, which is reinforced by conflicts surrounding natural resources and insecurity in access to livelihoods. In this context, terrorist organizations proliferate and facilitate their influence in fragile and conflict-affected environments, where the state has no influence and lacks legitimacy. In some cases, terrorist organizations try to bridge the gap left by the state by providing basic services in order to gain legitimacy and secure trust and support among the local population.

- Climate change has increasingly negative impacts on livelihoods in many countries and regions, for example with food insecurity or water and land scarcity, populations are more vulnerable not only to adverse climate impacts, but also to recruitment by terrorist organizations that can provide alternative livelihoods Economic incentives and respond to political, social and economic grievances.

Hence, there is no direct link between climate change, violence and conflict associated with terrorist organizations or non-state actors, but large-scale environmental and climate change may contribute to the creation of an environment in which armed organizations can flourish and open up to greater empowerment and influence. For example, the increasing water scarcity caused by climate change has opened the way for its use as a weapon for terrorist organizations in Somalia. A recent study by George King, at the University of George Washington, revealed in 2017 a clear link between climate, conflict and water arming. Somalia has been hit by a climate-related drought. Al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen has changed its fighting tactics, which were based on guerrilla wars, and attempted to isolate liberated cities from their own water sources.

3. Increased risk of armed conflict:

Based on the above, there is agreement on the implications of climate change for the future of global conflicts; and the difference over the magnitude of this impact.A study published in the journal Nature on June 12, 2019, indicated that as global temperatures rise, it is expected that The risk of armed conflict increases dramatically. The study found that climate has affected between 3 and 20% of armed conflicts over the past century, and is likely to increase significantly in the future. The study presented a number of future scenarios about the effects of climate change on the future. Conflict, noting that in h The four-degree Celsius scenario of warming (which is almost the path we are currently on if societies do not significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions), the impact of climate in conflicts will more than quadruple. Even in a scenario where warming is 2 ° C (the stated goal of the Paris Climate Agreement), the impact of climate in conflicts will more than double.

In the end, the researchers have not yet reached a comprehensive understanding of the impact of climate change in conflict, and the circumstances and circumstances of this impact, especially with the possibility of changing the nature and severity of these climate impacts in the future, compared with historical climate disturbances, and thus will be forced to face the circumstances Unprecedented experience, beyond known expertise and what it may be able to adapt to, which may maximize the risk of future impact, and impose obligations on think tanks and decision-makers to develop a future vision based on immediate plans and actions to reduce the negative consequences of climate change and its implications for climate change. Global security.

Different visions

Experts often disagree with a critical view of the relationship between climate change and conflict, and the visions ranged from intimidation to downplay. While several studies have tended to directly link climate change and conflict, others have tended to deny a direct relationship, arguing that conflicts are often the result of many of the most important and decisive predisposing factors in enhancing and sometimes creating their existence. The relationships between climate change, conflict and fragility are not simple and linear, and the increasing effects of climate change do not automatically lead to more fragility and conflict. Climate change doubles the threat, when climate change interacts with other risks and pressures. In a particular context, it can increase the likelihood of violent conflict or fragility.

The appropriate argument may therefore be a more moderate view, which views the relationship between climate change and conflict as a correlation, rather than a causal one, and despite the divergent views among researchers on how strong the relationship is, there is general agreement on a relationship (at the very least). This effect is escalating and becomes more pronounced if other predisposing factors such as poverty and low rates of social and economic development are available, and analyzes of the impacts of climate change have indicated that, for example, with the potential decline The global food production rate, and the dramatic rise in the sea level, climate change will increase the instability in the troubled areas, so the study of the security impacts of climate change is one of the main axes necessary to develop a vision and effective action on the issue.

“Assessing the role of climate change and its security implications is important, not only to understand the social costs of continuing our greenhouse gas emissions, but to prioritize responses, which may include assistance and enhanced cooperation,” notes Catherine Mash, director of the Stanford Center's Environment Department. ».

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Countries that are already politically fragile are the most likely future centers of climate-related violence and forced migration.