- 10-N. Errejón challenges Colau by presenting a list for Barcelona and will attend a total of 18 provinces
- Candidates.Más País elects former deputies from the orbit of Podemos and IU for their Andalusian lists to Congress
The Spanish political map is evaluating the aftershocks of the earthquake caused by the entry of a new party in the national sphere, Más País by Íñigo Errejón. The surveys predict that its fishing ground is in United We can and the PSOE, mainly, but there are other keys that explain the thoughtful strategy of ex- number two of Podemos: it looks for fertile feuds for the left and it trusts a collapse of Citizens.
"The appearance of Errejón, with its More Country , intensifies the competition and leads us irretrievably to a trench warfare, even if it is arithmetic. Errejón, ladino strategist, has decided to attend only in some provinces and that is why about 11 million Spaniards do not they will be able to choose the ballot with the face of the new applicant ", reflects Andrés Medina , political analyst and founder of the consulting firm Gravitas .
A decision that is not accidental and hides motives and arguments beyond the search for the provinces that distribute more seats. More Country is presented in 18 provinces, in which 210 seats are distributed, representing 60% of the total number of deputies, and where 69.4% of the total number of people with the right to vote vote.
This Spain of Errejón has a reason. Medina breaks it down: "In the areas where there will be More Country lists, the block on the left (PSOE, United We Can and Compromis) outperformed the block on the right by more than 2 points (2.2%)"; in addition, in the rest of the provinces the right was 3.7 points above. "The founder of Gravitas also points out the factor of the nationalist parties: in the provinces chosen by Errejón, the nationalists (ERC, JxCAT, PNV and Bildu ) they only obtained 7.5% of the votes, about 3 points less than in the other zone. " And, of course, the strength of United Can is key to steal votes: "In the territory where Errejón will attend, United We obtained much better result than in the rest of the provinces, where he got 4 points less (15.6% compared to 11.5%) ".
The conclusion for this analyst, who has scrutinized the territories and votes based on the results of April 28, is that "the pitch where the More Country candidacy is presented is favorable to Errejón's interests. It concurs in places with the lowest effective entry barrier. The behavior of its main voting sources was positive, United We were above the average and the PSOE barely fell. In addition, the eventual decline of Citizens, along with the lower specific weight of the Nationalist parties in these areas facilitate their competitiveness. "
The 18 provinces where there will be a ballot for More Country are, therefore, "a more paid ground for their claims. The block formed by the left-wing parties exceeded the right-wing by more than 2 points. However, in the other territory the left it was almost 4 points below. " In addition, "in most of the provinces chosen the number of opponents facing More Country is five, the parties that will be represented in the televised debate. That will make the task a bit easier, especially if we make the comparison with the places that have competitive nationalist forces, read Barcelona or Biscay . "
The strategists of Errejón, who will have had very much in mind the demographic tendencies, have not let the situation of Citizens pass , a formation that the surveys put down now. Medina explains the relationship: "The collapse of citizens who polls the polls in unison would represent good news for Errejón. For More Country to participate in the distribution of seats it is necessary to double in votes the fewer parties better. A fall of Albert Rivera , for example, in Cádiz , it can distract Citizens from a seat, and that Errejón's list intercepts it.With transfers similar to those indicated in the studies, Citizens would lose the second place they conquered, and would greatly facilitate the combat of More Country in Kichi's domains. "
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- United We Can
- We can
- José María González Kichi
- Iñigo Errejón
- Basque Country Elections
- CIS Survey
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