Deviation from the agreements: what could the US decision lead to withdraw troops from the Syrian-Turkish border

The United States temporarily withdrawn troops from the Syrian-Turkish border. This is stated in a written statement by the White House press service.

“Today, President Donald Trump had a telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” the White House statement said. - Turkey will soon begin to carry out its long-planned operation in northern Syria. "The US Armed Forces will not provide support or participate in this operation, and the United States forces, having defeated the territorial" caliphate "of IG *, will no longer be in close proximity."

At the same time, the Trump administration’s statement clarifies that “now all IG fighters in the area captured over the past two years as a result of the defeat of the territorial“ caliphate ”by the US will take over Turkey.

On October 7, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also confirmed that the US is withdrawing its troops from the territory of northern Syria, bordering Turkey. The spokesman for the Turkish president, Ibrahim Kalin, quoted by Anadolu news agency, in turn, noted that Ankara’s actions will be aimed at "clearing the region of terrorists, securing our borders and ensuring a safe return of refugees."

According to Turkish media, during a telephone conversation, Trump and Erdogan agreed that they will meet in Washington next month.

The fact that the US military leaves the areas of Syria, located near the border with Turkey, is also confirmed by the Kurdish media.

In-Pictures: US forces withdraw from the # Turkish-Syrian border - 📷 ANHA. pic.twitter.com/7vebHKNhoQ

Commenting on information about Ankara’s readiness to begin a new operation in the SAR, Russian President’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that for Moscow the main thing is to preserve the territorial integrity of the Arab country.

“We know and admit Turkey’s actions to ensure our own security, we mean countering terrorist elements that may take refuge in Syria, but I repeat once again: first of all, we are talking about the need to respect the territorial and political integrity of Syria,” he emphasized. Sands.

The Kremlin representative also recalled that Moscow has traditionally advocated the withdrawal from Syria of all foreign troops illegally located there.

The EU restrainedly commented on the US and Turkish plans in Syria, noting the impossibility of solving the existing problems by military means. The representative of the German government, Ulrike Demmer, in turn, said that the introduction of Turkish troops in Syria will lead to destabilization of the situation in the country.

Assignment of Ankara

Yuri Mavashev, director of the Center for the Study of the New Turkey, suggested in an interview with RT that the United States decided to withdraw troops from a number of Syrian regions under pressure from Ankara.

“Faced with Turkey is not in the interests of the United States, especially at a time when this can be avoided," Mavashev said.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan talks about Ankara’s plans to launch a new military operation in northern Syria since the end of last year. Turkey is particularly concerned about the fact that these territories are controlled by Kurdish formations. They are united in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which enjoy the support of Washington. However, the Turkish side qualifies them as terrorists associated with the Kurdistan Workers Party, which is banned in the country.

All this time, Ankara was negotiating with Washington regarding the future of the border zone. From time to time, the Turkish leader announced his intention to start the military operation unilaterally, complaining that it was impossible to agree with the Americans. The last time such a statement was made on October 5.

Before speaking at a session of the UN General Assembly in Washington, Erdogan said that he intends to create a security corridor 30 km wide in Northern Syria. According to the Turkish leader, from 1 million to 2 million Syrian refugees can be resettled there. In addition, Erdogan promised that he would "deal" with the Kurdish Popular Self-Defense Forces (YPG), operating under the guise of Syrian democratic forces.

• © Carlo Allegri / Reuters

Yuri Mavashev believes that the decision to withdraw US troops from the Turkish border was made following the results of the process of agreeing on a common position between the Turkish armed forces and the Pentagon.

Back in August, Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar said that a joint Turkish-American coordination center had begun work in Syria. On September 8, Turkish and US military launched joint patrols in border areas.

Moreover, according to Yuri Mavashev, the United States is unlikely to completely leave the territory of Syria.

“You do not need to take this as the final withdrawal of American troops from Syria. It is only about the territory in which Turkey plans to conduct a ground military operation, ”the political scientist explained.

"They will not sit idly by"

Meanwhile, the Syrian Kurds have criticized the US initiative to withdraw troops from the border with Turkey.

• YPG fighters in Northern Syria
• © Rodi Said / Reuters

“Despite the so-called security mechanism deal involving the destruction of fortifications, US forces failed to fulfill their obligations and began to withdraw troops from the border region, allowing it to turn into a war zone. However, the Syrian Democratic Forces are determined to protect northeastern Syria at all costs, ”said Mustafa Bali, head of the Syrian Democratic Forces press service on his Twitter.

Despite the #securitymechanism deal and following destruction of fortifications, US forces did not fulfill their responsibilities and began withdrawing from border, leaving the area to turn into a war zone. But SDF is determined to defend NE Syria at all costs.

Also, the representative of the Kurds stressed that, in his opinion, the United States would not “defend” northwestern Syria.

In August, Syrian Kurds said they had destroyed their fortifications and diverted heavy weapons from the border with Turkey as part of the Ankara and Washington agreements.

However, on the official website of the Syrian Democratic Forces on October 7, charges were again brought against the Americans for failure to fulfill obligations. The SDF command called on Kurds, Arabs, and other ethnic groups to defend the region.

Recall, October 7, Trump said that the United States is time to "get out of endless wars", bearing in mind, among other things, the presence of American troops in Syria.

“The United States was supposed to be in Syria for 30 days ... But we stayed there and became more and more bogged down in hostilities for no apparent purpose,” the president wrote on Twitter. “We have to get out of these stupid endless wars, many of which are tribal in nature, and bring our soldiers home.”

At the same time, Twitter SDS contains statements that the withdrawal of American troops from the border with Turkey could lead to increased activity of the IS and Al-Nusra **. In turn, the journalist of the British newspaper Independent Richard Hall said that another representative of the SDS - Kino Gabriel - called US actions "a stab in the back."

SDF spokesman Kino Gabriel calls White House statement on planned Turkey operation "a stab in the back."

As President of the Society for Friendship and Business Cooperation with Arab Countries Vyacheslav Matuzov noted in an interview with RT, it is premature to draw conclusions about the consequences of this decision by the Americans, because so far there is too little information about the real scale of the US maneuver in Syria.

“It is not yet clear how deep the Syrian territory the Americans will withdraw their armed forces. And there are not only Americans, but also the French contingent. Therefore, the situation remains extremely uncertain, ”Matuzov explained.

Earlier, Mustafa Bali announced the readiness of the Syrian Kurds to wage a “full-fledged war” with Turkey, if Ankara brings its troops into the region.

“The operation of the Turks with the Kurds will not be simple,” predicts Yuri Mavashev. - Most likely, Turkey will be able to create a buffer zone, but not the fact that they will be able to advance 30 km inland of Syria. Kurds will not be idle either. ”

At the same time, Mavashev is confident that in general, the Turkish military machine will be able to “break its opponents”.

"Hour of reckoning"

As experts recall, it is not the first time that Americans have compromised the interests of their allies in the framework of the Syrian campaign. So, at the beginning of 2018, the United States did not support the SDF forces, when during the operation "Olive Branch" Turkish forces ousted the Kurds from the area of ​​Afrin. Washington later refused to help the forces of the Free Syrian Army in southern Syria. The winner at that time was the official Damascus.

• Turkish troops and parts of the free Syrian army in Afrin
• © Khalil Ashawi / Reuters

According to Vyacheslav Matuzov, reliance on the United States has become a "strategic mistake" for the leaders of the Syrian Kurds.

“The Kurds in vain had the illusion that the Americans would stand to the end and sacrifice their national interests,” said the political scientist. “They refused to cooperate with the Syrian authorities and Russia, and now they will have to face the consequences of such a decision.”

Back in August, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, during a briefing on the sidelines of the Eurasia Global International Youth Forum, noted that Russia stands for “achieving long-term stability and security in the northeast (Syria. - RT) through the restoration of Syrian sovereignty and effective dialogue of Damascus with Kurds as part of the Syrian people.

Speaking at a meeting of the Valdai Club on October 2, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that the United States is seeking to split Syria, trying to "use the Kurdish factor to solve its geopolitical problems."

According to Yuri Mavashev, for the Kurds, “the hour of reckoning” is coming for a unilateral orientation towards Washington. In the case of cooperation with Damascus, their positions would be much stronger, the expert said. Now the situation of Kurdish formations is extremely vulnerable, and their influence on the further development of events in Syria will be very limited.

As for the United States, according to the expert, the withdrawal of troops will partially affect their reputation.

“The United States will continue to perceive it as a major player whose opinion cannot be ignored,” says Mavashev. “But on the other hand, all countries in the region will be aware that the United States is extremely unreliable.”

* “Islamic State” (ISIS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.

** “Jabhat al-Nusra” (“Jabhat Fath al-Sham”, “Front al-Nusra”, “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham”) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014.