The Government hides the truth about employment for fear of influencing the election campaign

• 10-N. The Government assumes that the cooling of the economy will also affect Spain
• Government.Hacienda deceived the communities and denied them 7 days ago the financing announced now by Sánchez

"The labor market is still dynamic" and the pace of Social Security affiliation "exceeds 2%", a figure that demonstrates this vigor. In addition, "it is very seasonal" and the Government expects "that in the coming months the data will improve", so the rest of the parties should refrain from making an "electoral use" of employment.

Based on this description that Nadia Calviño made at the press conference after the Council of Ministers yesterday, one might think that the labor market is only going through a timely moderation, which is far from overly worrying, and that the pace of creation of jobs will remain notable in the coming months. The problem is that the Minister of Economy did not include in her description some aspects that indicate that the context is not exactly like that, and that they also draw a situation that clashes with the electoral discourse of President Sánchez.

To find the first sample you just have to go to the same Social Security statistics that Calviño cited. According to data published last Tuesday by the Ministry of Labor , membership in September grew by 2.4% compared to the same month last year, a fact that effectively exceeds 2% but, at the same time, is the lowest since 2014 .

The minister also preferred to ignore another figure that offers the same publication, and is the one that refers to the inter-monthly evolution, that is, between August and September. In this case, the increase is only 0.02%, which means the lowest rate of job creation in terms of membership since 2013, that is, when Spain was still in full crisis. And of course, Calviño also said that the average membership increased by 3,224 workers, a figure that contrasts with the 22,899 of September 2018.

But there is more. The agencies' forecasts do not support that hope that "in the coming months the data will improve." The Bank of Spain published its new macroeconomic forecasts last week, a document that Calviño cited to demonstrate that the economy "is in an expansive phase" and that the downward correction of its growth estimate is due to a methodological review that, a in turn, previously carried out the National Statistics Institute (INE).

However, once again, the Minister of Economy only addressed a part of the figures and made no reference to the new estimates for the labor market. Thus, the agency headed by Pablo Hernández de Cos warned that "the rate of job creation has been reduced by half since May", that during the summer there has been a "more intense" moderation than expected and that there is a "General deceleration by branches of activity" which is especially notable in sectors such as construction.

The result is that the Bank of Spain worsened its employment estimates and now expects that the unemployment rate will continue to exceed 14% at the end of this year, which in 2020 will still be 13.2% and that in 2021 will barely retreat until 12.8% An obvious stagnation that coincides, in addition, with what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) already warned months ago.

On that occasion, Calviño downplayed the figures of the agency that later chose to preside, stating that the IMF is limited to "putting a number in a model and see what result gives" and that it was not "accurately reflecting what may be happening in the labor market ».

There is also a characteristic of the Spanish economy that Juan Ramón Rallo recently explained in this newspaper. This doctor in Economics recalled that Spain needs to grow at rates close to 1.5% to be able to create employment, and that from that level the economy begins to destroy jobs.

The electoral debate of November 4

This year and next, the GDP will rebound above that point and a half, but in 2021, according to the Bank of Spain, the advance will be 1.6%. That is, there is a real risk that, in just two years, the trend of job creation will not only slow down, but that it will be reversed, and at that time the unemployment rate will still be far from the minimums that were marked before. of the great recession.

To all this we must add that the date chosen by the Government to hold the electoral debate will be on November 4, just one day before the data of a month that traditionally yields little positive figures are known. And finally, although probably more revealing than much of what has been pointed out, there is the warning that Octavio Granado also launched this week. The Secretary of State for Social Security is characterized by "saying what he thinks", even when he does not agree with the Government and although he has already suffered more than one public correction, and what he thinks about the labor market is that there is a " evident »cooling in job creation.

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