Washington - An unstable Iraqi political system cannot diminish Iranian influence at this stage, it will not benefit stability in the Middle East or international energy markets, nor will it reduce extremism in the region, the National Interest magazine reported.
During their visit to Iraq last month, Robert Ford and Randa Salim noted that life there has been steadily improving, and there is a traffic jam during rush hour at noon, and streets and restaurants are filled up late.
On the other hand, there is still a problem in the power supply, as there is a regular interruption, while the water supply in the capital has improved significantly. In addition, Basra, the country's second largest city, has seen improvements in infrastructure services enough to prevent a recurrence of riots in the region in the summer of 2018.
Indeed, the political process may not be perfect, but in the past year Iraq has been able to change its president and prime minister without resorting to major violence or arrests. Earlier this summer, there were peaceful protest marches against government inefficiency and corruption in many provinces, but security forces merely monitored and not intervened. All Iraqis active in political affairs outside the government confirmed that none of the government's opponents had been arrested.
The Iraqis are slowly learning new political habits for years and even generations, but compared to the situation 10 years ago, there is significant progress. For example, the relationship between the government in Baghdad and the increasingly volatile Kurdistan region of Iraq has improved thanks to the efforts of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi and Kurdish Finance Minister Fuad Hussein.
| Life in Iraq is steadily improving, the authors say. |
A sign of hope
During their visit to a major political salon in Baghdad, the authors noted another sign of hope for political development.During the civil war and the period immediately following, Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds rarely socialized, and there was a similar split between Islamists and secular politicians. In contrast, the saloon attracted more than 100 men and women from diverse backgrounds, all of whom were present to listen to former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi during a wide debate on the role of the opposition in Iraqi politics.
In this context, there were two particularly important issues that were publicly addressed. The first issue was corruption, with Iraq leading the list of the most corrupt countries in the world. For example, Health Minister Ala Alwan resigned and returned to Geneva, saying on his Facebook page that he had to resign because he could not gather enough political support to stop corrupt practices in his ministry. In fact, none of the Iraqi officials with whom the writers interviewed was able to devise a plan that would begin to address this corruption.
The authors point out that Iran and its allies are mired in corruption, in addition to the weak influence of the prime minister, and his top advisers were linked to Tehran. In contrast, the prime minister's orders had no effect, failing in July 2018 to remove militia checkpoints outside Mosul. In the end, he was forced to accept the presence of the remaining militias. On the other hand, Americans have imposed sanctions on militias, but checkpoints still exist today and militias are collecting taxes.
Due to shrinking Iranian financial resources as a result of US sanctions, pro-Iranian militias have set up their own companies and smuggling gangs to ensure their financial safety, and are also receiving significant revenue from the Iraqi government, as they are part of the Iraqi security establishment. At the same time, the Government is trying its best to contain the militias.
| Abdul Mahdi recently visited Saudi Arabia in an attempt to ease tensions in the Gulf (Anatolia) |
Avoid war
All the Iraqis they interviewed were hoping the United States would not fight the war with Iran because they believed their country could not afford to survive for long. On September 25, Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi traveled to Saudi Arabia to discuss with its leaders the role Iraq could play in easing tensions in the Gulf region.
In addition, Iraqis stressed that there are areas where Iran cannot help Iraq at all, such as education, reform, development of the banking sector, and employment of technology in the economy. All those who spoke to the writers in Baghdad and Erbil, including Iraqis with deep ties to Iran, are aware that Iraq benefits from relatively balanced relations with both the United States and Iran, and does not accept being forced to choose between the two countries.
To advance this goal, the relationship between the United States and Iraq cannot be about competing with Iran and defining its independence from Iranian influence. Instead, the United States should consider working with like-minded Iraqis to help the volatile political system gradually expand its roots and stability.
In conclusion, there are some positive and negative indicators about the development of Iraqi policy, but the success of Iraq is not guaranteed despite the US interest in the matter and help to move forward. On the other hand, Iraqis have made it clear that without such attention and assistance, their nascent efforts at good governance, reconstruction and peaceful relations with all their neighbors will be rock bottom.