Sports halls, gardens and churches suggest a long stay of Russian soldiers in Syria

Four years after Russia began its military intervention in Syria, Russian soldiers enjoy a lavish life at their base in the port city of Tartus, and nothing suggests that this stay will not be long.

A Russian officer points to small plants planted inside a garden at the naval base, confidently saying he "will have time to grow."

Russia is gradually withdrawing troops and significantly reducing its operations, without affecting its long-term presence in Syria, which seems essential to the country's future.

In Tartous, as in the Hmimim airbase in neighboring Latakia province, the Russian army is firmly present and does not mind presenting its facilities to a group of journalists.

Russian soldiers can go to the gymnasium, sauna, bakery and laundry, as well as an Orthodox chapel. A Russian officer, who preferred to remain anonymous, says the soldiers have "all the necessary amenities."

The Russian Air Force's intervention since the end of September 2015 in the Syrian conflict has tipped the balance in favor of Damascus, and regime forces have managed to make significant progress at the expense of opposition factions and regain control of much of the country.

Russian soldiers are now appearing in public, such as military police patrols patrolling the streets of Syrian cities, as well as "advisers" wandering in front of media lenses while training a Syrian army elite battalion near Damascus.

Stay longer
According to official statistics, 3,000 Russian soldiers are deployed in Syria, in addition to planes, helicopters, warships and other submarines, and modern S-400 air defense systems provide protection for their facilities.

The Russian base of Hmeimim, which was hastily set up on the outskirts of a civilian airport, became a permanent base from 2017, and the same happened in Tartus, where this facility of the Russian Navy on the port became a "permanent naval base."

Moscow has 49 years of lease on both sites, which will consolidate its presence in the Middle East and enable it to exert influence, especially against the United States.

"With these bases, Russia has strengthened its position, and as long as (Syrian President) Bashar al-Assad has the presidency, there will be no alternative, movement or group that can defend the Russian presence in such a way," Alexei Mashchenko, director of research at Moscow's Institute for Dialogue of Civilizations, told AFP. Enthusiasm".

Russian President Vladimir Putin was clear in June 2018 that the Russians would stay in Syria as long as Moscow "sees an interest in it," and his success in Syria and his rapprochement with Iran have restored Russia's position as a key player in the region.

On the military level, the Syrian war, involving 63,000 Russian troops, allowed Russia to test its forces and advanced weapons, such as Kaliber missiles and long-range bombers, under real conditions.

By carrying out about 100 sorties a day in the darkest conditions of war, about 90% of the pilots of the Russian army gained combat experience.

No Way Out
To stabilize the Syrian regime and ensure its continued existence, Russia must face the thorny reconstruction file, which the UN estimated last year at more than $ 400 billion.

Efforts in many cities are not paying off now, given Western sanctions against Damascus and the international community's reluctance to fund the post-war period because there has been no real progress towards a political solution to the more than eight-year conflict.

In Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, the war-ravaged city, Russian support by providing high-voltage wires and pipelines has provided electricity and water to homes, but neighborhoods controlled by opposition factions remain mired in destruction.

It is unclear whether the political process that began with the recent formation of a constitutional committee is capable of resolving the question of Assad's future survival, which domestic and international parties are demanding his departure.

Idlib (northwest), which is controlled largely by HTS (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), is subject to a fragile agreement between Moscow and Ankara that requires a ceasefire to avert a bloody attack by the Syrian regime, but the sustainability of the situation cannot be guaranteed. Currently being.

"There is no way out for Russia, it has a good tactic but without any strategy," Malashenko said, believing she knew what it would be like "the next step but no one knows what will happen next."