The congress of the British Conservative Party has started. Prime Minister calls for unity.

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At the end of next month, the EU-European Union's withdrawal deadline is approaching, and the party convention of the ruling and conservative parties in the UK has begun. Prime Minister Johnson is expected to appeal for unity within the party in order to realize withdrawal at the end of next month, but in the opening parliament, the opposition party is also moving to submit a cabinet distrust plan, and the politics will be mobilized It is also expected.

The party ruling of the British ruling party and conservative party started on the 29th in Central Manchester.

When the Johnson Prime Minister's car arrived at the venue, there was a voice protesting that the Prime Minister is a liar.

On the first day, Foreign Minister Raab addressed, “Let's seize historical opportunities under the leadership of the prime minister and connect with the world,” and showed the idea of ​​realizing a withdrawal at the end of next month.

Prime Minister Johnson said in a public broadcast BBC interview in front of the party convention, "It is my responsibility to lead the party and the country even in difficult times," and withdrew from the EU. He stressed that there was no plan to resign if he could not agree.

Prime Minister Johnson is expected to address the party's solidarity towards the withdrawal by giving a speech on the second day of the party convention next month.

The British Parliament, which is open during the convention of the Party Convention, has continued to fight intensely between the ruling party and the opposition party seeking postponement of the deadline in order to avoid disagreement without consent, and moves to submit a cabinet distrust plan The government is also expected to be fluidized.

What will happen in the future?

The deadline for the UK to leave the EU = European Union is 31st of next month.

The focus for the rest of the month will be the EU Summit held on the 17th and 18th of next month. If the UK and the EU agree on the terms of withdrawal at the final summit meeting held before the withdrawal deadline, they will leave on time.

If you do not agree, it is expected that withdrawal on time will be very difficult.

This is a law that was enacted in the UK this month, because Prime Minister Johnson is obliged to ask the EU to postpone the withdrawal deadline if it cannot agree with the EU by the 19th of the day after the summit.

However, Prime Minister Johnson argued that he will “withdraw at the end of next month” and repeatedly emphasized the idea of ​​not extending the withdrawal deadline. There are also voices questioning whether or not to seek.

Withdrawal scenarios

There are various scenarios for the departure from the EU, which is due soon at the end of next month.

Agreement with EU

Prime Minister Johnson is currently in discussions with the idea that he would like to agree with the EU by the deadline. However, there is a wide range of disagreement over border management in Northern Ireland, and it has been reported that there has been no significant progress in the discussion so far.

Can you postpone withdrawal?

The withdrawal postponement law enacted this month requires the prime minister to request a postponement of the withdrawal deadline if the EU cannot agree with it by the 19th of next month.

Therefore, according to the law, “no withdrawal without agreement” at the end of next month will be avoided.

However, Prime Minister Johnson has repeatedly stressed that there is no postponement, and there is a voice saying “I am looking for a way out of the law”.

If Johnson finds a way out of the law in some way, there is a possibility of withdrawal without agreement.

Also withdraw withdrawal

The UK can also tell the EU about withdrawal.

However, Prime Minister Johnson has repeatedly said that he will always withdraw, and the possibility is unlikely.

To the general election

On the other hand, the general election is being held.

The ruling party has lost a majority in the parliament, and the policy cannot be decided, and Prime Minister Johnson wants to secure the path to withdrawal that he will draw by conducting a general election and obtaining the majority .

Several possibilities have been pointed out to advance the general election, which is normally held every five years.

(Pattern 1)
Prime Minister Johnson submits a motion requesting the implementation of a general election, which requires at least two-thirds of the parliament.

Prime Minister Johnson submitted motions twice this month, but none of them were approved by opposition parties.

The opposition party will respond to the general election if it can avoid the withdrawal without agreement, and depending on the trend of the opposition party, there is a possibility of submitting a third motion.

(Pattern 2)
A distrust plan against the Johnson administration may be filed and passed.

If the Johnson Prime Minister is re-established within 14 days, or if a new Prime Minister cannot be formed, a general election will be held.

If a general election is to be held, the situation regarding withdrawal may become more opaque.