Analysis: "SD favored by debate on deaths and blasts"

The Swedish Democrats are going up for the second poll in a row after the summer and are now supported by 20.7 percent of the electorate. This is a significant increase of 2.3 percentage points.

The party has on some occasions previously been at these levels, or higher, which means that one should be careful about drawing any long-term conclusions from the investigation.

It is obvious, however, that SD has been favored by this summer's debate about the shooting deaths and blasts. One explanation is that SD has a strong position among voters on issues related to law and order. At the same time, the party's position is facilitated by the fact that it has been isolated by the other parties for so long. Thus, SD can relinquish all responsibility for the social problems being discussed.

Interesting if you look at voter flows is that SD now not only takes voters from the Moderates, the Social Democrats and the Christian Democrats but also from the Center Party.

The moderates, in turn, take voters from the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, but thus lose in turn to the Sweden Democrats. Overall, however, the Moderates increase by 1.9 percentage points, but this is not a significant increase. Still, many moderates are breathing out today. This is the first time since September 2018 that parties will receive voter support in excess of 20 percent.

Here, too, is the explanation, in all likelihood, that the party has benefited from the debate about serious crime. The Moderates are the party that has the highest confidence among voters when it comes to law and order and should therefore be favored by such a social discussion.

For the Social Democrats, the situation is more worrying. The decline compared to the last survey is not statistically certain, but the party is now 3.6 percentage points below last year's election results.

The Social Democrats have recently been criticized internally for being a workers 'party without workers' politics. Obviously, the party's core voters have the same attitude, which should reflect the party leadership. The Social Democrats continue to lose voters among the LO members. According to the SVT / Novus voter barometer, the Social Democrats are losing voters to the Left Party, the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Sweden Democrats.

The Left Party is slightly on the plus, while the Environment Party is back somewhat. The decline for the Center Party is indeed greater, but nonetheless not statistically certain. The Liberals are also losing a little and are thus still under the parliamentary block. In the SVT / Novus voter barometer, the party lands at 3.5 percent. So far, the change of party leader has not been a lottery for the party. The re-start has been absent at the same time as voter confidence has fallen sharply for the new party leader Nyamko Sabuni. Thus the crisis stamp consists.

SVT / Novus voter barometer is based on interviews with 3,716 persons during the period 26 August to 22 September.