Washington (AFP)

Trade agreement or declaration of good intentions? On the eve of the meeting between Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, skepticism grew over their ability to sign a real treaty on the sidelines of the UN Assembly in New York.

Wanted by the US president to rebalance trade between the United States and Japan for the benefit of American farmers, the final negotiations would stumble on the delicate automotive issue, according to Japanese media.

In exchange for a significant reduction in tariffs on US agricultural products, including beef and pork, Japan would require a firm commitment from the Trump administration that it will not impose tariffs of 25% on its car exports, vital for its economy.

Last year, Washington accused Tokyo of a trade deficit of 56.8 billion dollars. Japan exported $ 51 billion worth of cars, according to data from the US Trade Representative (USTR).

For now, the Trump administration has remained silent about its intentions. The Republican President, who is seeking a second term, has given himself until 17 November to decide whether or not to impose new tariffs on cars not only from Japan but also from European Union countries.

At the UN rostrum, Trump alluded to the treaty with Japan: "Tomorrow I will meet the Prime Minister of Japan (...) to finalize a trade agreement."

- Farmers -

Negotiations began in April. And, at the end of August, Donald Trump announced, at the G7 summit in France, the conclusion of an agreement "in principle" between the two countries, with the hope that the text be formally initialed at the UN General Assembly. United which is being held this week.

"With regard to trade negotiations, we have finished all negotiations today, it's over," Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said after a meeting with USTR Robert Lighthizer on Monday.

"I think we're going to have a nice ceremony" at Wednesday's meeting with Donald Trump and his ministers on Japanese television. The former minister of the economy, at the heart of trade negotiations, however, did not mention the signing of an agreement.

According to the Japanese press quoting sources close to the case, the terms of the treaty are still under discussion, subject to the scrutiny of the lawyers of both parties.

The New York Times, citing sources close to the case, adds that Tokyo wants to include in particular a "sunset clause" that would invalidate the agreement and all the benefits granted to American agricultural producers if Donald Trump followed up. its threat to impose punitive tariffs on cars.

Without an agreement, leaders could announce that they continue to work towards the conclusion of an agreement in the coming weeks, continues the American daily.

On Monday, the spokeswoman for the US executive said that trade negotiations should lead to the signing of a text "in the two days to come" during an interview on Fox Business.

This agreement is particularly expected by American farmers and breeders.

Last year, pig farmers, highly dependent on foreign markets where they export 25% of their production, sold $ 1.6 billion to Japan.

Japanese consumers bought more than $ 2 billion worth of US beef, which represents about a quarter of total US beef exports.

At the end of August, the beef producers' federation (NCBA) had called for the elimination of "massive" tariffs of 38.5% on American beef that would make American exports attractive.

The first agricultural export to Japan, however, remains maize with $ 2.8 billion in 2018.

This agreement "is very important for us," said AFP Veronica Nigh, an economist with the main agricultural federation, the American Farm Bureau Federation, while beef and pork producers are weakened by recent trade agreements. free trade signed by Canada and the European Union with Japan.

Ottawa is indeed a Tokyo partner in the Progressive and Global Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (the new TPP) that came into effect in December 2018 that Donald Trump rejected, much to the chagrin of farmers.

The Economic Partnership Agreement between the EU and Japan has been implemented since 1 February 2019.

Veronica Nigh points out that without an agreement with Japan, the deterioration in the market share of US farmers in the Japanese market could be very rapid.

© 2019 AFP