Al Jazeera Net poll: 82% believe that Arabs will lose from the economic war between America and China

Mohammed Afzaz-Doha

The vast majority in a poll conducted by Al Jazeera Net that the Arab countries will not profit from the trade war and currency war sparked by US President Donald Trump.

Eighty-two percent of respondents from September 5 to 12 were convinced that Arabs would lose out of the US-China economic war.

About 1,000 respondents in the poll asked: "Do you think Arabs will win from the currency war and trade dispute between America and China?"

Only 18% of respondents in the Al Jazeera Net poll appeared convinced that Arabs would profit from the adult conflict.

The two economic giants, the United States and China, have entered a trade war since 2018 by imposing billions of dollars in tariffs on their imported goods, affecting the rest of the world.

While Trump announced that his country is reaping large sums of duties on Chinese products, which could total up to $ 100 billion, he pointed to talks between the two countries to reach an agreement to end this war is going well.

The role of spectator
"Consumers are on the winning side only because they are created to buy the goods of the economically strong, especially the Arabs, and the Gulf states," said one respondent.

"Arabs are always losing," said Ford. "We are just consumers and we are the spectators."

One participant described the trade war and the currency war between America and China and other countries as "a new American method to get what is left in the pockets of the poor for the wealthy." "If they were going to win, they would have won," said another.

On the other hand, one participant called for investing the trade war and said, "It is necessary to exploit it of course," while another said "there is only a slight benefit."

Trade between Arab countries and China reached about 244 billion US dollars last year, up 28 percent year on year, according to a report by China's official Xinhua news agency.

Chinese exports to Arab countries reached $ 104 billion, while Chinese direct investment in all Arab sectors reached $ 1.2 billion in 2018.

The new contracts signed by Chinese companies in the Arab countries amounted to 35.6 billion dollars, an increase of 9% compared to 2017.

Why currency war?
Currency wars often occur among industrialized countries in order to boost their foreign exports and support competition among their companies.

They resort to devaluing their currencies against other currencies so that they can export as much of their products abroad at preferential prices.

Aldar Exchange Chief Executive Officer Juma Al-Madadi said in an interview with Al Jazeera Net that the currency war between China and America is due to the desire of both sides to improve the terms of their economic agreement, which is currently unclear but will have an impact in the Middle East markets.

China and the United States account for more than half of the world's export and consumption markets.

The same spokesman believes that America, with its great potential, especially in the laws of supply and demand, continues to dominate the economic, financial and monetary operations in the world.

However, he said, "China can become a dominant power if it changes its laws. If it and its laws remain in the current and guided form, their hegemony over the world will be delayed.

In August, the administration described China as a currency manipulator by allowing the yuan to fall below seven yuan per dollar, while Beijing denied the accusations, as confirmed by the International Monetary Fund.

Impact on Arab Markets
Al-Madadi believes that the currency war between the US and China will have little impact on the Arab markets at the moment, but if this war continues in the future there will be a positive impact, as the Arab markets will benefit from Chinese or American products because of the possibility of lower prices.

As for the Gulf markets, he says, they rely on the fluctuation of the relationship between the dollar and the yuan, because the currencies of these countries are pegged to the US currency. If the yuan depreciates, Chinese goods will become available, and vice versa if the dollar falls, Gulf markets will be boosted by US goods.

Not far from these convictions, says the Director General of the "consultants coalition" Qasim Mohammed Qasim "Look at the positive aspects of foreign exchange wars on importing countries, especially for the Arab world."

Such wars, he adds, help reduce the cost of imports from the low currency area and raise the cost of goods from the high currency area.

Despite the Trump wars, trade rivalry between the United States and China - the focus of the Trump administration, which raises America's slogan first - increased to its highest level in six months, with the US goods trade deficit with China rising 9.4% to $ 32.8 billion in July.

Oil Exporting Countries
For oil-exporting countries, the effects are determined by the value of the dollar in the markets, up and down, because the oil is denominated in US dollars, as Qasim Mohammed Qasim believes in an interview with the island Net.

Economic adviser Abdul Rahim Al-Hor believes that the Arab world is part of the global economic system, and therefore everything that affects this system affects the Arab world in terms of consumption, manufacturing and oil and gas exports.

He adds in an interview with the island Net that the impact of global trade because of the conflict between the United States and China will necessarily affect the oil-exporting countries and consumer countries that depend on imports.

Al-Hor seemed convinced that the current trade conflict and the ensuing currency war would eventually lead to the emergence of new cryptocurrencies globally.He said what he described as labor would lead to the birth of cryptocurrencies and the spread of blockchain technology, which he believed would become dominant in the near future.

US trade with MENA countries exceeds $ 100 billion, while US-Arab Chamber of Commerce data show that US exports to Arab markets exceeded $ 60 billion by 2017, but these exports are declining.