Muhammad Mohsen Wad-Occupied Jerusalem
Official Israel is silent about demonstrations in Egyptian cities calling for the overthrow and departure of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Israel's strategic ally.
Israeli analysts and researchers estimate that the renewal of the revolutionary movement was only a matter of time, and they believe that the Egyptian army will remain in control no matter what the developments, and exclude the departure of Sisi at this stage.
The Israeli media reported on the developments and demonstrations in Tahrir Square and the Egyptian cities as regular news. The Israeli media scene dominated the decision of the Fund for the elections of the 22 Knesset, the identity of the next Prime Minister, and the possibility of forming a national government among the Kahul-Lavan list headed by Benny Gantz. The Likud party, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, is the biggest supporter of the Sisi regime.
Despite the conclusion of Israeli research centers that demonstrations erupted in Egypt after the death of President-elect Mohamed Morsi in the prisons of the regime, it doubts that the demonstrations pave the way to overthrow Sisi.
The fall of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is the fall of the civil state in Egypt and the return of terrorism to rule Egypt again. |
Research centers argue that even if Sisi's departure scenario comes true, the Egyptian army will remain the final word, ruling out the return of the Muslim Brotherhood to power or even any anti-Israel figure.
A matter of time
Tamar Press, an Arab affairs correspondent for the Israeli newspaper Hume, which is close to Prime Minister Netanyahu, believes that the renewed demonstrations in Egypt and the strikes against the Sisi regime were just a matter of time, attributing this to the deteriorating economic conditions and the high cost of living and tightening the noose on citizens.
Under the title "After eight bad years, the Egyptian people are fed up", Press wrote an article reviewing the years of Sisi's rule, based on his assessment on six visits to Cairo.
His first visit to Cairo was in 2014, about a year after the overthrow of the late President Mohamed Morsi, and was a trekking in Egypt's main cities and the capital, which was free of foreign tourists.
The fall of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is the fall of the civil state in Egypt and the return of terrorism to rule Egypt again. |
The reporter for Arab affairs described the situation in Egypt and his impression of his recent visit to Cairo in 2018 as a “honey day and an onion day.” You can say that “things have improved since then, others have changed, and others have remained under radar and censorship.”
He asserted that the popular movement and demonstrations against the Sisi regime were not surprising and it was only a matter of time. The videos of businessman Mohammed Ali served as the straw that broke the camel's back.
The Scarecrow of Terror
The strike was likely to have been postponed by the Sisi regime's suppression of the horror of terrorism in Sinai, mass arrests of Egyptians, and hundreds of death sentences imposed after the January 25, 2011 revolution.
He pointed out that the Egyptian people during the years of Sisi rule with fire and iron to remain silent, and wanted to take a rest and gather strength after eight years to start again towards the popular movement to overthrow the regime.
"After decades of frustration and the bad years of Sisi's rule, it was enough to invite the construction contractor to bring thousands to Tahrir Square for the first time in eight years. The Egyptians know that the end of these demonstrations may be like previous demonstrations. But the Egyptians are fed up with Sisi."
The explosive event
The same position was predicted by researchers Orit Berlov and Ofer Venter, from the Center for National Security Research at Tel Aviv University, where they expected strikes in Egypt after the death of President Morsi in the prisons of the Sisi regime, and explained that this is only a matter of time, even if the death of Morsi again demonstrated the state of polarization In the Egyptian street.
He drew an assessment of the situation to the National Research Center that the Sisi regime managed to contain the explosive event with the death of Morsi and his son Abdullah later.
Do you expect the fall of the rule of military leadership over the Arab Republic of Egypt (which lasted 67 years fully and perfectly, since the 1952 coup against the monarchy) until the arrival of Sisi in New York ..? - Eddie Cohen אדי כהן 🇮🇱 (@EdyCohen) 21 September 2019 |
But at the same time, they argue that the pro-Islamist rhetoric on social media platforms, although not translated into widespread protests, is a reminder that the Muslim Brotherhood remains an important part of Egyptian public opinion.
The researchers explain that official Israel was right when it remained silent and did not comment on the death of Morsi in prison, as Israel is convinced that the concept to promote Israeli-Egyptian peace and rapprochement between peoples in the Middle East and Israel is mandated to weaken and fragment Islamic movements and forces, and strengthen the role and status of political forces and pragmatic civil And liberalism at the expense of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Despite the pragmatic behavior of the Muslim Brotherhood during Morsi's tenure, it is doubtful to say that their fundamental hostility toward Israel would have allowed the peace agreement between Tel Aviv and Cairo to be maintained over time, and their absence facilitated the consolidation of Sisi's booming cooperation on strategic issues. Security, energy and containment of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict. "
Support Israel
The Israeli proposal is reinforced by the ability of the Sisi regime to maintain stability in Egypt, as expressed in a paper issued by the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic and Security Studies. "In some respects, Sisi's chances of achieving stability in Egypt are better than they were two years ago," she said.
Dr. Eran Lerman, deputy director of Al Quds Institute, attributed the paper to Israel's continued support for Sisi and the influence of Tel Aviv in Washington, and the use of this to strengthen the strategic alliance in the Middle East and financial and military support to Cairo, with the renewal of the UAE and Saudi Arabia pumping money and help the Egyptian economy.
Security alert .. |
Nevertheless, researcher Lerman believes that the biggest challenges facing Sisi are the renewed demonstrations and revolutionary movement, as well as the fight against terrorism, especially in Sinai, how to continue and accelerate economic growth, the development of energy resources in his country in relation to other initiatives in the Eastern Mediterranean in cooperation with Israel, and encourage national projects. Great.
Given the alternatives to Sisi, even if they are under the army's umbrella, whose seriousness and regional repercussions cannot be underestimated, Lerman says, "it is in Israel's interest and its allies in the region to continue to help Sisi stabilize the Egyptian regime."
At the same time, he believes, "it is better for allies to advise Sisi, even sometimes secret, to encourage him to continue governing and ease the regime's repression mechanisms against the people, which may indicate tensions within the ruling military establishment."