“Radicalism in words”: how Iran assesses the likelihood of a military conflict in the Middle East

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif did not rule out the outbreak of hostilities in the Persian Gulf region. He stated this in an interview with the American television channel CBS.

“I’m not sure that we will be able to avoid war. I’m sure that we won’t untie it and that it’s not the one who starts it, ”the head of Iranian diplomacy said.

The minister also added that, in his opinion, "there will be no limited war." In addition, Zarif stressed that the United States and its allies "have done everything in their power."

Earlier, Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, announced his readiness to answer any provocations.

“We will not allow the limited act of aggression to remain limited and intend not only to repulse any aggressor, but also to continue military operations until it is completely destroyed,” he said.

Iranian Foreign Minister commented on his country's position regarding attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia on September 14. He confirmed that Iran was not involved in them, and drones with explosives were sent by the Yemeni group Ansar Allah (Hussites). It was she who took responsibility for this terrorist act, calling it the answer to the bombing of the objects of the group in Yemen by Saudi aviation.

Recall that the official Riyadh does not blame the Hussites for the explosions of its refineries, but Tehran. The blame for the September 14 attacks was blamed on Iranian authorities and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Donald Trump, in turn, introduced new sanctions against Iran and approved the Pentagon’s decision to transfer additional military troops to the Middle East, as well as speed up the process of delivering military equipment to the region. Diplomatic contacts between Tehran and Washington were virtually interrupted.

Earlier, Trump announced his readiness to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on the sidelines of the 74th session of the UN General Assembly, which started this week. However, after the September 14 attacks and Pompeo’s statement, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei ruled out any high-level negotiations with the United States until the Americans completely change their minds.

“Strengthen anti-Iranian activity”

However, according to experts, neither the American nor the Iranian leadership is extremely disadvantageous.

“Trump under no circumstances will give an order to start military operations against Iran. Next year in the US elections. In addition to Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria, getting a war in Iran for Trump is tantamount to political suicide, even if he wins an easy and quick victory, which is unlikely, ”Said Gafurov, an orientalist in an interview with RT.

• Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iranian Foreign Minister
• globallookpress.com
• © Rouzbeh Fouladi

Senior researcher at the Center for the Study of the Near and Middle East, Vladimir Sazhin, also believes that the White House is not interested in another war, especially since its consequences are unpredictable. Iran is an influential state, and a military conflict with it can lead to "tectonic changes" throughout the Middle East, the expert notes.

However, if no one is interested in the war, this does not mean that it will not start, Sazhin believes. He recalls that the September 14 bombing investigation is actually "in its infancy" - it is not even determined who will conduct it. The Saudi Arabian Foreign Ministry said earlier that it would involve UN representatives in clarifying all the circumstances of the attacks at the refinery. Mohammad Jawad Zarif calls for similar actions. However, when and in what quality the UN will participate in the investigation of the September 14 terrorist attack, neither the Saudi authorities nor the Americans have yet clarified.

“The conclusions that the investigation will receive are very important. Evidence that the drones were launched by the Islamic Republic is an incident of the bell, that is, the basis for Saudi Arabia to declare war on Iran, ”says Sazhin.

However, in his opinion, Riyadh will not fight the Iranians on its own: the war in Yemen has demonstrated that the Saudi armed forces are not in the best condition.

“The kingdom can conduct hostilities only with the hands of the USA and Israel,” the expert suggested in an interview with RT.

At the same time, according to Vladimir Sazhin, despite the current political situation, it is now difficult to say whether Trump will be able to evade military operations if, according to the results of the investigation in Saudi Arabia, it will be clearly and unequivocally stated that Iranians can be behind the terrorist attacks at the refinery.

“If the investigation concludes that Iran is allegedly guilty, then the American president will be in a very difficult situation, because he will have to somehow respond to this. If no reaction follows from Washington, then the United States risks losing credibility among allies in the Gulf region and the Middle East as a whole. And this may affect the outcome of the upcoming presidential election, ”Sazhin believes.

The expert added that in this case, Trump may try to “soften” the results of the investigation or even make them secret.

“The White House would be quite happy if the conclusions of the investigation allowed the United States and Saudi Arabia to strengthen anti-Iranian propaganda activities, the Cold War, with the guarantee that it would not turn into a“ hot war, ”Sazhin believes.

"Scare each other"

Given the current situation, when any careless action can lead to an unfavorable ending for all potential participants in the military conflict, the Americans and Iranians will carefully weigh their every decision, experts say. According to analysts, "radicalism will be more in words than in deeds."

Said Gafurov believes that Zarif’s statement, as well as the deployment of American troops to the Persian Gulf, is not a preparation of public opinion for a real war, but a “part of the verbal confrontation” that the USA and Iran have long waged. Both states, through threats alternating with negotiations, want to make concessions related to the Iranian nuclear program.

“The goal of any war, including verbal war, is peace. Now Iran and the United States scare each other in order to agree on more favorable terms for themselves, ”Gafurov said.

A constraining factor for both parties, according to analysts, will be the realization that, as Zarif put it in an interview with CBS, "there will be no limited war."