• Attack: The United States says it knows from which bases in Iran the ships that hit Saudi Arabia came out

The president of the United States, Donald Trump, has turned to Twitter, capital letters and exclamation marks to announce strategic initiatives . "I have instructed the Treasury Department to increase the Sanctions on the country of Iran!" He has tweeted the head of the State and the US Government in that social network at 9 minutes to 7 in the morning of Washington. But he has not given more details.

The announcement came just minutes before the US president announced the appointment of Robert O'Brien , hitherto ambassador for the release of hostages, new National Security advisor. O'Brien has achieved some notoriety for the surreal mission that led Sweden in July to 'negotiate' with the judicial authorities of that country the 'liberation' of the rapper A $ AP - friend of Kim Kardashian and Kaye West, in turn friends of the president, who had been jailed for participating in a street brawl. O'Brien has described Trump as "the best negotiator for the release of hostages in US history."

The arrival of O'Brien replacing the hard John Bolton opens a period of uncertainty in the US and Saudi Arabia crisis with Iran. The US has ruled out the war. And it seems to opt for sanctions. According to The Wall Street Journal, Washington is studying the possibility of raising a Resolution before the United Nations to sanction Iran, although it is uncertain that this measure will succeed. In fact, most countries have refrained from making belligerent statements after the attack on the Saudi petrochemical complexes of Abqaiq - the largest in the world - and Khurais on Saturday.

The question is what does the United States have left to sanction in Iran . Since less than a year and a half ago Washington broke the agreement with that country under which Tehran had committed to 'freeze' its nuclear program for almost three decades, the US has been extending its sanctions to almost the entire economy Iranian. The United States has banned in practice the purchase of Iranian oil and also of metals produced in that country, which is the two main export items.

Washington has also prohibited the Government of that country from buying gold and precious metals in international markets, has tried to cut all ties of that country with the international financial system, and has sanctioned hundreds of people, businesses, areas of the State and even senior government of Iran . Even so, the sanctions are not complete. Iran, for example, exports between 300,000 and 500,000 barrels of oil per day, representing a decrease of between 81% and 89% in relation to its levels prior to the breakdown of the nuclear agreement by the United States.

Financial System Center

The United States has the capacity to impose these sanctions because it is the center of the global financial system, so that any entity, public or private, that violates them, can see its access to the US market closed, which in practice would mean that could not carry out international operations. Washington may freeze the assets of public companies or States that violate the sanctions , and also act against other entities that it deems facilitating those operations. "For example, if a Chinese company imports oil from Iran, the US could sanction that company more than any entity - say, a Chinese bank - that it considers has contributed to the operation," explains an expert of a 'hedge fund 'from Wall Street.

So, in principle, the US does not have much to ban in terms of trade with Iran. But in practice, however, it does have room for action. "The sanctions are not completely clear, and, technically, not all Iranian banking entities, nor all metal exports, are targets of these," explains one person with knowledge of the situation. The reason, according to that thesis, is that "the United States tries to operate by creating a situation of uncertainty and widespread fear among all the potential partners and customers of Iran." That legal ambiguity could be easily reduced if the US Treasury imposed specific penalties. But that would also cut Washington's room for maneuver with Iran.

A possible target of Washington's sanctions could be Europe. In June, the EU created, under the auspices of Great Britain, France and Germany, the INSTEX (Trade Exchange Support Instrument), which in practice is a barter system under which companies Europeans and their Iranian counterparts do not use money in their exchanges. INSTEX is limited to medicines, medical equipment, and food , which are three areas that theoretically are not affected by US sanctions, although this Wednesday information that could not be verified indicated that small Italian, German and French banks might be interested in entering in the system. However, to date no one has clarified whether INSTEX has been employed in transactions with Iran or not.

But, even if the new US sanctions on Iran did not affect that mechanism, they would have consequences for the EU, three of whose member states - Germany, Britain, and France - are also signatory to the nuclear agreement with Iran that the US broke in 2018. As a result of that decision in Washington, the EU decided to include possible US sanctions on its companies and citizens in the so-called "Statute of Blockade" which, according to José María Viñals, partner of the US firm Squire Patton Boggs and specialist in trade and sanctions international, "aims to counteract or limit the extraterritorial effects of the sanctions imposed by third States, protecting EU citizens and companies when they carry out legal commercial or investment operations in or with the States subject to the sanctions." Under the Statute of Blockade, the community companies are obliged not to collaborate with the US in the sanctions to third parties imposed by that country to Iran after the rupture of the nuclear agreement by Washington. The courts of the EU member countries also consider all US judicial decisions in that area void.

But, even if the new US sanctions against Iran did not affect that mechanism, they would have consequences for Europe. As explained to EL MUNDO.es José María Viñals , partner of the US law firm Patton Boggs, where he works in the area of ​​sanctions, "the current EU legal status in relation to US sanctions refers to the measures imposed by Washington after its abandonment of the nuclear agreement. " If a new wave of sanctions were carried out, "it could be assumed that these are a consequence of a different event", that is, the bombing of the petrochemical plants in Saudi Arabia. That would force the EU to create a new response framework. At present, community companies are obliged not to collaborate with the US in the sanctions against third parties imposed by that country on Iran after the rupture of the nuclear agreement by Washington. The courts of the EU member countries also consider all American judicial decisions in that area void .

US sanctions have had a devastating impact on Iran's economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has calculated that the GDP of that country will fall this year by a spectacular 6% , although the decline could be even greater, according to Adnan Mazarei, an analyst at the think tank Peterson Institute for the World Economy and former deputy director for the Middle East and North Africa of the IMF. Inflation is 42%, but, according to Mazarei, Tehran "has managed to save the exchange rate", so that the rial has not collapsed. This expert considers that the Iranian economy has strong points in its favor, including the fact that it is "a middle-income country with a diversified productive activity."

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