“Reanimated the process”: how the integration of Russia and Belarus will go

The integration process between Russia and Belarus is now at the final stage. This was in an interview with RT, said Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS Countries Vladimir Zharikhin.

“This does not mean that integration has reached the end point, but at the level that will be implemented is the maximum possible,” said the expert.

Earlier it became known that Russia and Belarus completed work on a program of action to implement the union agreement. As Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said, “the work that results from these documents does not end there, it only begins.”

According to the ambassador of Belarus, the special representative for integration cooperation within the Union State, Vladimir Semashko, said that the program for further integration of the two countries could be approved by December 8. According to the diplomat, by November 1, roadmaps should be developed.

“And by the anniversary, on December 8, when the 20th anniversary will be celebrated, on the eve, I think, the presidents of our countries should approve the program and, accordingly, someone will sign road maps on their instructions,” he said.

Semashko added that after signing the “whole system of work” will begin.

Belarusian Prime Minister Sergei Rumas noted that the parties approved a list of 31 “road maps” of the integration process.

Closing problematic issues

In a conversation with RT, Sergey Margulis, a lecturer at the Department of International Politics and Foreign Regional Studies at the Institute of Social Sciences of the RANEPA, recalled that in 2007 the process of integration of the two states was actually stopped.

“For a long time, the Union State both in Russia and Belarus was considered a temporarily frozen process. Since December 2018, integration through the Union State has been reanimated, ”Margulis said.

At the end of 2018, Russia and Belarus agreed to create a working group to resolve issues and develop the process of integration between the two countries.

In June, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko expressed confidence that joint work to deepen integration would help to enhance the traditions of friendship between Minsk and Moscow.

“I’m sure that our joint work to deepen bilateral relations and integration cooperation will help preserve and enhance the rich traditions of Belarusian-Russian friendship,” the congratulatory message that Lukashenko sent to Vladimir Putin on the occasion of Russia Day was said.

In July 2019, negotiations were held by the heads of state at which the Belarusian leader invited the Russian president to “resolve all problematic issues” in bilateral relations by December.

By the beginning of November, it was decided to develop 28 so-called “road maps” - plans for the integration of Russia and Belarus in various fields, including the unification of legislation, as well as the launch of the oil and gas, industrial, agricultural and transport markets, working on uniform rules.

Deep integration

A few days before Vladimir Semashko’s statement on the approval of the integration project, the Kommersant newspaper reported some details of the project “The Program of Actions of Belarus and the Russian Federation for Implementing the Provisions of the Treaty on the Establishment of the Union State”, which was agreed on September 6 by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and his Belarusian colleague Sergey Rumas.

• Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister of Belarus Sergei Rumas
• RIA News
• © Dmitry Astakhov

According to the publication, roadmaps suggest the transition to a unified tax code by 2021, the creation of a single energy market regulator, the unification of customs policy, as well as the unification of currency control and banking supervision.

Now in the field of energy and energy, formulas are being developed with the help of which economic relations between countries in this field will be determined, Vladimir Zharikhin explained.

“I’m sure countries can find a compromise,” the expert suggested.

In general, Kommersant reports, economic integration will be comparable in level with that which exists between the countries of the European Union. This process includes the development of the already mentioned “roadmaps” for the unification of economies and the preparation of legislative steps for integration, which the parties agreed to submit to each other by November 1 of this year.

The publication also indicates that from 2021 the Bank of Russia and the National Bank of Belarus should go to work under the interstate agreement on unified financial supervision, and one of the “roadmaps” will be the plan of the ministries of economy of the two states to unite industry regulation.

The program does not affect the defense sector, as well as state security, the judicial system and law enforcement, education, medicine and science, and public administration itself.

At the same time, according to the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov, information about the economic integration program of Russia and Belarus is preliminary.

“Until the plan was published, it was not disclosed, so all this information is purely preliminary,” Peskov told reporters.

The main problem in this process may be precisely the economic sector, said Sergey Margulis.

“In my opinion, Moscow and Minsk still have to do tremendous work in the economic sphere, since the Russian and Belarusian systems are different. The volumes of the Russian and Belarusian economies, which in principle are not comparable, are the main obstacle to the integration process, ”the expert explained.

The different levels of economic development of the two countries require careful elaboration of all plans for integration in these areas, Vladimir Zharikhin also believes.

“The whole process required a rather serious discussion in the selection of compromises, because Russia and Belarus are countries with a slightly different economic structure. It was not easy to coordinate some points, but now we have managed to do it, ”the political scientist believes.

Reaction of the West

Experts recall that the integration process between Russia and Belarus has caused dissatisfaction from Western countries. In a conversation with RT, Vladimir Zharikhin recalled that representatives of Western political circles tried to convince the political Belarusian elite that the movement to the West is more profitable than to the East.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
• RIA News
• © Alexey Danichev

“However, they are unable to circumvent the fact that Ukraine, which has actively moved to the West, today has a per capita GDP of 2.5 times lower than that of Belarus. Our task is not to pay attention to the attempts of the Atlantic establishment to impede this process, ”the expert noted.

Recall that over the past few weeks, two high-ranking representatives of the US administration have visited Minsk at once.

At the end of August, Belarus was now visited by the former adviser to the US president on national security, John Bolton, who held talks with Alexander Lukashenko. And on September 17, Deputy Secretary of State of the United States David Hale arrived in Minsk. During a press conference following talks with Lukashenko, he announced Washington’s readiness to discuss the relaxation of sanctions against Minsk “with progress in the field of human rights and democracy.”

The West is not interested in implementing a full-fledged agreement on the Union State, said Sergey Margulis.

“But so far they do not regard this project as something real. However, the latest statements by the heads of Russia and Belarus will probably change the situation and force Western partners to look at it in a slightly different way, ”the political scientist concluded.