The number of supporters of the idea of Scottish independence is growing, while the number of calls for a new referendum on this issue is increasing. This was announced on September 19 by Prime Minister Nikola Sturgeon during a conversation with the co-chair of the Scottish Green Party, Patrick Harvey.
“When Scotland gets the right to choose, it will make it in favor of independence,” the British newspaper quoted The Guardian as citing the first minister.
Earlier, the head of government said at a press conference in Germany that Scotland intends to secede from the UK and, in the case of Brexit, remain part of the European Union.
“Even if Scotland is forced to leave the EU, we will make every effort to comply with European standards, which will give us, I hope, more chances to return to the EU in the future,” Sturgeon said.
At the same time, according to her, “within the framework of the existing system” the possibilities of the Scottish government are limited.
“In this connection, I believe that it will be the right step to invite the people of Scotland to make a decision on transformation into an independent state and independent accession to the EU,” the politician said.
According to Sturgeon, Scotland will always be a European country and a staunch supporter of the European Union.
“Not because we consider the European Union to be ideal and that EU membership is obviously consistent with our interests. Probably the most compelling reason is that EU membership exactly corresponds to the values of our country, ”Sturgeon explained.
- First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon
- Reuters
- © Russell Cheyne
Similar ideas were made by the Minister of Economy of Scotland, Derek Mackay. His statement is published on the Scottish government website.
"Scotland did not vote for Brexit, but our economy has to pay for it, and we are likely to have a long period of instability, and in the meantime, companies are trying to prepare for the upcoming Brexit deadline in October in the face of a growing threat of leaving the EU without a deal," stated Minister
According to him, the Scottish government is already taking steps to preserve jobs and protect the economy from the effects of Brexit, "but not all of them can be mitigated." According to the minister, brexit without a deal will have “catastrophic consequences” for Scotland and may push the country to a recession. And the responsibility for these negative consequences will lie "solely with the UK government," Mackay emphasized.
“We will continue to strongly oppose attempts to withdraw us from the EU against our will,” the politician said.
Small coin
In the ranks of the Scottish Tories, Sturgeon was criticized for a trip to Germany, where she announced Scotland’s desire to become independent and remain part of the EU. So, a member of the Scottish Parliament from the Conservative Party, Jamie Halcro-Johnston, accused the first minister of not solving a problem in her own country.
“Today, Nicola Sturgeon is in Germany, because by the fifth anniversary of the referendum on independence, the Scottish National Party clearly realized that it looks much better when playing on a European audience than in parliament, where its government is required to answer for the scandal surrounding state hospitals,” - stressed the politician.
The Tories have no other opportunity for political struggle than just making loud statements and criticizing the current Scottish prime minister, Natalya Yeryomina, professor at the European Studies Department at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, believes.
“The Scottish National Party occupies a leading position in Scotland, while the regional branch of the Conservative Party always gets fewer seats than other political forces. Therefore, the Tories play the role of ardent opposition in the Scottish parliament, while not being able to form a real opposition, ”the expert explained in an interview with RT.
- Scottish Independence Referendum 2014
- © Russell Cheyne / Reuters
According to Eremin, criticism of conservatives against Sturgeon and her ideas will only grow.
“The Tories will pay attention to the fact that the Prime Minister of Scotland should first of all solve internal problems, and not go to Germany and declare the separation of the country,” the analyst said.
Meanwhile, it would be much more profitable for Scotland to remain within the framework of the pan-European market, since there are quite strong economic ties within it, Yeryomina said.
“For Edinburgh, relations with the EU have become more significant than interregional contacts within the UK. This also applies to the issue of subsidies for innovative projects. Scotland received investments directly from the European Union, and not from London, ”the expert said.
According to Eremin, the Scottish authorities often thanks to the help from European funds solved their problems.
“These investments have created a large number of jobs in Scotland,” said the analyst.
If Scotland manages to remain part of the EU, it will not have to wait for funding decisions from London, says Eremin.
“In addition, their lack of confidence in the ruling Conservative Party of the United Kingdom also affects the Scots’s desire to secede from Britain and join the European Union. Residents of Scotland believe that conservatives traditionally spread rot for them, and therefore do not count on the privileges and preferences of the Tories, ”the expert notes.
According to Kira Godovanyuk, a senior researcher at the Center for British Studies at the Institute for Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences, the British exit from the European Union has become a bargaining chip for politicians who are trying to play this and get extra points.
“Sturgeon is trying to take advantage of the confusion in relations between the EU and the UK to gain the support of Brussels and gain independence. At the same time, the Prime Minister of Scotland is a representative of Scottish nationalists, which is why she became an object of criticism from the Tories, who in turn want to strengthen their positions, ”the expert said in a conversation with RT.
On the way to the referendum
According to experts, Scotland's independence will be possible only if a new referendum is held on the country's withdrawal from the United Kingdom.
Recall, a referendum on the independence of Scotland has already taken place in 2014. Then more than half of its members spoke in favor of maintaining an alliance between Edinburgh and London. However, the Scottish National Party, ruling in the region, began to promote the idea of a new referendum on independence, citing the results of an all-British referendum on further EU membership, according to which the Scots did not support Brexit.
As noted by Natalia Eryomina, Scotland “has a chance of secession” from the UK and the preservation of membership in the European Union.
“If the central British government does not offer Scotland support options for Brexit, then more and more Scots will support the idea of independence. Already, on an ongoing basis, the number of these people exceeds the number of those who want to remain part of the United Kingdom, ”said the expert.
A similar opinion is shared by Kira Godovanyuk. According to her, “Scotland’s chances of gaining independence will increase significantly” if Brexit without a deal does happen.
At the same time, formally, London will try to prevent Scotland from secession, but most of the ordinary British are ready to recognize the country's right to independence, notes Eremin.
“The population of Great Britain for the most part realizes that Scotland only puts sticks in the wheels of the United Kingdom, which impedes the development of the country. In addition, if Scotland, in the event of separation, maintains production and economic ties with the UK, this will not hit the interests of the British, ”the analyst explained.
Eremin also emphasized that Brussels will not interfere in the issue of the separation of Scotland, but at the same time it is not going to impede the implementation of this process.
- European Commission Headquarters in Brussels
- © Yves Herman / Reuters
“And if independent Scotland wants to remain part of the EU, Brussels will not mind, as the Scots have made a great contribution to the development of European integration,” the expert believes.
However, as Kira Godovanyuk notes, Scotland will take a long time to become an independent member of the European Union. In addition, Brussels will not support Scotland if Edinburgh holds a referendum without the approval of the British authorities, the analyst believes.
“The referendum should be held according to the approved procedure with the consent of London. Otherwise, the question may arise about its legitimacy. Any doubts in this regard will become an occasion for the European Union not to accept Scotland. In particular, Spain will speak out for this, which will not want an example for Catalonia to follow, ”the expert summed up.