By RFIPalled on 18-09-2019editing on 18-09-2019 at 10:01

An unpredictable second round is announced in Tunisia between ultra-controversial lawyer Kaïs Saïed and businessman Nabil Karoui, imprisoned for money laundering. According to the official figures, the first obtains 18.4% of the votes, the second 15.5%. The negotiations of the between-two-turns are announced complicated. The alliances may also be blurred by the legislative 6 October that could come between the first and second round, the date has not yet been fixed.

In Tunisia, the position of heavyweights beaten on September 15 during the first round of the presidential election is eagerly awaited. Especially that of the Islamist party Ennahda whose candidate comes third. His societal model approaches that of Kaïs Saïed , but his institutional project much less.

For their part, the modernists, especially those who gravitated around the late President Beji Caid Essebsi could be attracted by Nabil Karoui , from the same circle and the same system. But for now, no one has spoken.

A real dilemma is looming for parties and unfortunate candidates. Kaïs Saïed is the favorite with first place but has no political structure. He did not present a list in the legislative elections. Joining him is therefore potentially risky for a party like Ennahda seeking a majority in Parliament.

Nabil Karoui, himself, has the means to weigh to the Assembly by presenting numerous lists. But rallying it means getting involved with a personality who has no good reputation and whose candidacy raises multiple legal questions, which is not trivial in terms of political image.

For the Al Bawsala political observatory, most candidates will opt for caution and wait for legislative results to make their choice. The tone of the second round campaign could also influence some political leaders.

The legislative complicate the deal

For the moment, only two unfortunate candidates have positioned themselves. Mohamed Lotfi Mraihi and Seifeddine Makhlouf, who together account for just over 10% of voters, joined Kaïs Saied, who also received the support of former President Moncef Marzouki. As for Nabil Karoui, we are waiting to see if he will have the support of the deeply divided " family " of which he is descended. With a participation rate of 49%, the games are still very open.

Presidential candidates have two days to file appeals in the administrative court. Then, after studying these requests, the ISIE, the body in charge of elections, will determine the date of the second round. As Farouk Bouasker, Vice President of the ISIE, explains, " There are three possible dates, September 29, October 6 or October 13, but we can not decide this date until after all appeals against the preliminary results reported today ".

In terms of logistics, the ISIE believes that it can, if necessary, organize two elections at the same time. The electoral calendar is therefore loaded because the campaign for the legislative started since 14 September. And some unfortunate presidential candidates are also in the running for this second ballot.

In the meantime, it will be necessary to determine the status of Nabil Karoui and to know if he will be able to participate in the televised debate with Kaïs Saïed or to give interviews to the media. The ISIE will ask the judicial services to allow it to participate in the campaign for the second round. This body considers that Karoui is presumed innocent. As long as he has not been sentenced by the courts, he remains a candidate.

►Also read: Tunisian presidential election: Kaïs Saïed, a "UFO" on the political scene

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