Media Bart: Oil markets discover the fragility of Saudi Arabia

Attacks on Saudi Aramco's facilities have killed Saudi energy, with half of Saudi production cleared, pushing up prices and warning of a global recession, the French media website said.

It showed that the kingdom's oil infrastructure is far more vulnerable than it had imagined, even in the case of unequal conflict.

The site added that the oil market - even at the time of the invasion of Kuwait or the Iranian revolution - did not happen to have seen such interruption in the supply witnessed after these attacks.

The site - in an article for Martin Orange - that the mere reminder of what happened in these moments is enough to fuel all fears in the oil market.

He explained that the global oil market is still in uncertainty after the attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, while experts are trying to guess the consequences of the destruction in the short and medium term.

Uncertainty
What he described as the shock in the oil market adds further uncertainty in an already volatile geopolitical and economic environment.

"These attacks are a new negative element for the global economy, which is already experiencing a deterioration in manufacturing activity and high trade tensions," the website quoted Ivan Petrella, investment manager at Swiss investment bank UBS, as saying.

Petrella added that "high oil prices may be the straw that broke the camel's back, leading to a recession at a time of signs of slowdown in most developed and developing countries."

It is noteworthy that oil prices rose Monday by about 20%, before falling after easing fears.

Economic analysts have lost speculation about how long the increase will last, and whether it will be sustainable, because it all depends on Riyadh's political response, whether it will follow the strategy of tension or not, as well as the conflict advocated by US President Donald Trump.

A global recession
On this basis, the site says everything is possible, and some even expect a "scenario" similar to the invasion of Kuwait, which led to a 170% increase in the price of a barrel, and a global recession, and even some are thinking of the scenario of the Iraq war.

However, the website pointed out that by pausing at market figures alone, the situation does not appear to be very disturbing in the short term at least, especially as the Saudi government has tried after the attacks to reassure the world that it is always ready to play its role as a stabilizing factor in the oil market, saying it is able to provide Trump also said he had authorized the use of strategic stocks if needed.

Long-term risk
The site says the situation will be complicated if half of Saudi oil production continues to be absent, which will necessarily affect prices.

Analysts warn that the oil market can not do without 5.7 million barrels per day, and some risk venturing prices of between $ 80 and $ 100 a barrel.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at a news conference that half of the production disrupted by the attacks had been restored and production capacity would return to 11 million bpd by the end of September.

The embargo on Iran
According to Martin Orange, some analysts believe that the embargo on Iranian oil may not last long, because countries like China and India in particular need large quantities of oil, and may break the embargo imposed by Trump on the purchase of Iranian oil.

The Media Bart report concluded that the attacks on Saudi oil sites illustrated the fact that everyone wanted to ignore or underestimate them: that Riyadh's market capacity to protect its oil facilities in all circumstances, and to convince everyone that Saudi production is determined by the global oil market; In fact, the oil infrastructure seemed much more vulnerable than he had imagined, even in an unequal conflict.