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The Argentineans have resumed barter and soup kitchens, a law on food emergency is under consideration. For months, the Argentineans are going through a terrible economic crisis. The country is in recession, especially it is indebted: it owes nearly 100 billion euros, more than half of which to the International Monetary Fund. A situation reminiscent of the monumental crisis of the early 2000s. How to explain this gear and this repetition of history?
The crisis had been brewing for months, and it accelerated this summer, when Argentina asked the IMF at the end of August to reschedule its debt , that is to say to give it more time and more facilities for lending. 'to honour. A request that has somehow formalized what the markets already feared: the inability of Argentina to repay its debts, starting with a slate of 57 billion euros corresponding to the loan granted a year earlier by the IMF. The most important loan in the history of the institution.
Today, the failure of this loan is obvious. Nobel economist Paul Krugman denounces a " lack of discernment ". Christine Lagarde, president of the IMF at the time, more soberly acknowledges having " underestimated " the Argentine case. In the spring of 2018, the IMF is trying to help Argentina regain investor confidence, which it has lost since the crisis of the early 2000s . " Argentina wants to return to the international capital market, " says Gabriel Gimenez-Roche, professor of economics at the Neoma business school and specialist in Argentina, she wants to have access to creditors, and for that she is committed to repay the debts it had incurred even before the crisis of 2001. The IMF therefore rewards Argentina with this loan. It's daring, admits the economist, but it was difficult to obtain foreign currency otherwise to meet its obligations. "
" Old recipes that do not work "
In exchange for this loan, the IMF imposes on Argentina austerity measures very painful. In an attempt to balance its finances, the government cuts subsidies in energy, water and transport. As a result, prices are reaching new heights, the population - more than 30% poor - can not afford anything. A scenario that Argentina had already experienced during the crisis of the early 2000s: the same ingredients (debt and inflation), the same players, starting with the IMF, and the same mistakes ... In fact mistakes, Jean- François Ponsot speaks plainly of a " retreat ", a " regression " on the part of the IMF.
" In recent times, we have the impression of a return to old neoliberal dogma, old recipes, explains this specialist monetary and financial issues at the University of Grenoble, which does not spare the institution of Bretton Woods. We put in place structural adjustment programs that are very old in their design, as in the 80s and 90s. We know that it does not work but we put them still in place. So we see again, with the Argentine case, that it does not work. "
Shared responsibilities
The IMF did not apply the right recipes. A posteriori, hard not to see it. But Argentina is a sovereign country, and President Macri has made his own political choices, leading a neoliberal policy called " gradualist ", that the economist Jean-François Ponsot equates to a " total failure " " Macri wanted to reduce the public debt, he analyzes, it has finally increased; between his election and today, the external debt rose from 52 to 89 percent of GDP; Inflation is on the rise again, now reaching more than 50%. On the exchange rate policy, that is to say the ratio of Argentine peso and international currencies, here too it failed! When he came to power, he took pride in ending the exchange control, but the measure he has been forced to take recently, it is precisely to restore this exchange control! "
The Argentine economy is structurally very dependent on the price of raw materials - soy and meat in particular. It is also very exposed to the value of the dollar. When he came to power in 2015, President Macri inherited an already indebted Argentina.
The problem, according to economist Gabriel Gimenez-Roche, is precisely that he avoided the problem: " What was needed was to stop the deficits. To do this, either increase taxes or reduce expenses: Macri chose neither. It opened the markets and committed itself to international creditors, without achieving a balanced budget. Obviously, investors do not trust Argentina yet, so the rain of dollars promised to his constituents never arrived. On the other hand, the deficit is still there, and it has widened. "
Presidential coming
In the early 2000s, hundreds of thousands of Argentinians took to the streets to protest against the IMF. There had even been deaths. Today, the government is trying to limit popular anger and especially to save time until the next presidential election. It will be October 27, and the favorite is not the liberal Mauricio Macri but Alberto Fernandez. A Peronist perceived by his future interlocutors of the IMF at worst as a populist, at best as a dangerous leftist.