As late as the 22nd of August, it was a cheerful Magdalena Andersson who, at Harpsund, despite seeing a recession, held on to her analysis of the labor market and unemployment.

But since then, much has happened in the Swedish and international economy.

The imminent risk is that if the government's own forecasts do not keep up with the bleak economic reality, the policy that is pursued will not get the desired result.

What stands out today is the government's optimistic view of the labor market.

According to the government's analysis, unemployment is expected to land at 6.3 percent in the full year 2019. But the other day, figures came out showing that unemployment has already gone up to 7.1 percent. Despite this, the Ministry of Finance maintains its forecast of an unemployment rate of 6.3 percent for the full year 2019.

Rather, according to the government's own budget, the total cost of labor market policy programs should decrease somewhat in the coming years. How does that work?

Public consumption

It is being moved to the right and left of the budget for both municipalities, rental housing and for labor market measures. But in its own forecast, the Government expects that as we now enter into a recession, public consumption in the next year and next year should not increase but instead decrease. Exports are also falling. At the same time, central government debt will fall below 30 per cent of GDP in 2022, compared with the average for the euro area countries, which is around 85 per cent.

Instead, households, that is, you and I, through consumption - Christmas presents and renovations, vacations and car purchases will drive economic growth. Our consumption will decline substantially this year and then increase by 2.7 per cent in 2020.

This is usually not the case when the labor market is perceived as more uncertain and the world economy is falling. Instead, people tend to save, amortize and generally make a little more careful financial choices. The government may need to come back with several measures. The Riksbank, which already has a negative interest rate, can hardly help too much.

There is a risk that Magdalena Andersson's budget was obsolete at the time it landed.