London (AFP)

The world's fleet of airliners will more than double in the next 20 years, Airbus said Wednesday, although it expects a smaller increase in growth than before.

The need for aircraft will be 39,210 new aircraft and cargo ships by 2038, bringing the global fleet to 47,680 aircraft, said the European aircraft manufacturer, which published its new Global Market Forecast (GMF) 2019-2038 .

The aerospace group expects an annual growth of air traffic of 4.3%. By publishing its forecasts at the age of 20 in July 2018, Airbus forecast annual growth of 4.4%.

Of the 39,210 new aircraft required (+ 4.9% compared to the forecasts established in July 2018), 25,000 will meet the growth needs (-5,8%) and 14,210 will replace existing equipment more fuel-hungry (+31, 0%).

The aircraft manufacturer thus significantly revised up its predictions of replacement of existing aircraft, relying on the need for companies to have less fuel-hungry and therefore more competitive aircraft.

"Advances in fuel efficiency are further boosting demand for replacement of existing aircraft by others that consume less fuel," the aerospace group said in a statement.

To meet future needs, the aerospace group estimates that 550,000 new pilots and 640,000 new technicians will be needed.

- Resilient aeronautical sector -

Air traffic has "more than doubled since 2000" and should continue on this trend, thanks to increasing urbanization, the development of the middle classes, particularly in Asia, and the liberalization of air transport, said Christian Scherer, Airbus sales manager at a press conference in London.

"Not only are the mature mature markets continuing to grow, but most of the strong growth comes from Asia, India and mainland China," he said.

Domestic air traffic should be multiplied by 3.2 in China and 4.8 in India, Airbus predicts.

Despite the geopolitical uncertainties and the trade war between China and the United States, which raises concerns for global growth, "the annual growth of 4% reflects the resilient nature of the aerospace industry," believes Christian Scherer.

"Yes we are worried about the (development of) protectionism, it's obvious, but we hope and think it will be short-lived," he said.

Contrary to last year when he estimated the value of devices to build to 5.800 billion dollars, the aircraft manufacturer has not made such a calculation this year.

Its competitor Boeing, whose latest 20-year forecasts date back to July 2018, estimates the total demand for new aircraft at 6,300 billion for a global fleet of 48,000 aircraft in 20 years.

Airbus has revised its classification of aircraft according to their capacity in terms of passengers and their range of action. It thus distinguishes the "small" devices ("Small" segment), in which it includes single-aisle aircraft (families A220, A320 and A321), "means" (segment "Medium") which include the longer A321 LR and XLR. range but also the A330 and "large" (segment "Large") (A330neo, A350 and A380).

The requirements for "small" aircraft are estimated at 29,720 aircraft, those with "average" aircraft at 5,370 and those with "large" aircraft at 4,120.

The European aircraft manufacturer intends to carve out the lion's share and expects a market share "of just over 50% thanks to the quality of our product range", according to Christian Scherer who does not believe in a fundamental breakthrough on the market of a new competitor such as Chinese COMAC by 2038.

The European aircraft manufacturer aims to deliver between 880 and 890 aircraft in 2019 and seems online to achieve it with 500 aircraft delivered in the first eight months of the year. His rival Boeing, however, accused a plunge of 42.6% of his deliveries over the period due to the grounding of his flagship aircraft, the 737 MAX, grounded since March after two accidents that had 346 dead.

At August 31, Airbus' order book had 7,172 aircraft.

© 2019 AFP