• Campaign.Benjamin Netanyahu agitates the vote of fear

Five months later, the Israelis return to the polling stations with the question that accompanies them in the last decade around the most praised and criticized figure in the country: will Benjamin Netanyahu remain prime minister? After failing to form the Government and three weeks after the appointment with the attorney general to avoid a trial for alleged corruption , the Likud leader multiplies in interviews and direct on Facebook to mobilize his people with an alarm message that he will repeat until ten at night when the last of the almost 11,000 ballot boxes closes. "We are losing. If you are not going to vote each of you thinking that we have won, we will have a leftist government with the support of the Arab parties!" He warns in a gale of promises.

The arithmetic margin of the leader of the Blue and White centrist block , Benny Gantz, is more limited due also to the demographic changes in Israel that benefit the right. The options of the former army chief pass not only because he is the most voted but also because 'Bibi' does not achieve 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he would have to devote himself to preventing the disintegration of Blue and White (three parties) while Netanyahu would face the national challenge (imminent peace plan of President Donald Trump, the promise of annexation of colonies in the West Bank, tension with Iran ... ) and personnel (imputation) under the umbrella of a right-wing and religious coalition.

"We will change the direction of Israeli democracy to end the attempt to divide to govern. We will govern for all and not only for sectoral groups. Netanyahu wants to create a coalition that helps him and I a coalition that serves the inhabitants," says Gantz. .

In such a polarized society, the 6,394,030 voters agree at least that there should be no other elections. Their disgust for the blockade will pressure politicians to hard-to-digest pacts so that Israel can leave the interim situation in which it has lived since the electoral advance nine months ago. 'Bibi' ensures a government on the right with the 'jaredim' (ultra-Orthodox) and Gantz promises a lay liberal .

Beyond the electoral alliances created in the right and left and whose impact can be decisive in the battle between blocks, the big difference with respect to April 9 is Avigdor Lieberman that frustrated the Government of Netnayahu in summer . Now, he flies the flag against the influence of the Orthodox in the coalition to demand a government with Netanyahu and Gantz.

Virtual tie

The latest polls give a virtual tie between Gantz and Netanyahu without forgetting that traditionally the Likud gets more votes at the polls than in the polls. The Arab bloc would be the third force, followed by the religious Zionist right and Lieberman. The two ultra-Orthodox parties, which already guarantee their support for Netanyahu, maintain their strength while Labor-Gesher and Meretz-fight on the left for their existence before the great flight of voters who bet on Gantz to knock Netanyahu. One of the questions is whether ultra-rightist Otzma Yehudit reaches the threshold (3.25%) to have the four minimum seats.

According to the polls, participation will be far from April, when 68.5% voted, due to fatigue after three elections in a year (two legislative and municipal), to the malaise towards politicians and a summer that has not ended.

The participation of the Arab minority (21%) is key . In April it had a 49% participation, in contrast to 63% in 2015. "I anticipate that we will reach 58%. Bibi is good for the Arabs because every time he uses us in the elections to cause fear among the Jews, the sector the strategist of the labor campaign in the Arab public, Jalal Banna, is mobilized to EL MUNDO.es.

According to various media, Netanayahu raised a very forceful response against Gaza militias a week ago after the missiles fired into southern Israel that forced him to be evacuated at a rally in Ashdod. He reversed the warning of the military leadership and the legal advisor that such retaliation could lead to a broad offensive and perhaps the annulment of the elections that will finally rule today the last name of the prime minister and the face of Israel in the coming years.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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