Analysis: Oil war is moving closer

Once again, the Middle East risks being thrown into an unnecessary war where military solutions may replace diplomacy and talks.

"We are charged and ready," President Donald Trump tweeted late Sunday night, and his message today is that Iran is most certainly responsible for the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil depots.

The United States has been waiting for Saudi Arabia to say who they believe is behind the attack and be told "under what conditions we will then progress". The message from the US president is astonishing in itself, the world's largest military superpower awaiting the message of one of the world's most closed, undemocratic countries, ready to make available its military resources. Saudi Arabia is used to counting on the support of the United States and must somehow respond after the attack this weekend. This in a Middle East that is currently boiling over several, parallel conflicts.

Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo, the most threatening tone, called the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil depots "an incredible attack on the world's energy resources". He also hinted that Iran would be behind and dismissed the idea that the attack would come from Yemen. Aerial photos suggest that the western sides of the Saudi depots are attacked, which would indicate that the attack comes from Iran and not from Yemen in the south. The US is now preparing to collaborate on intelligence information with Saudi Arabia, a message that will lead to strong reactions among US elected politicians.

Thus, the tone between the United States and Iran is escalating into one of the world's most dangerous potential military conflicts right now. Tensions have escalated steadily in recent years.

Donald Trump rescinded the nuclear agreement that six countries, including the United States, signed with Iran in 2015. Since then, President Trump has made the freezing of Iran one of the cornerstones of US foreign policy, with both economic sanctions and a ban on oil exports. Macron mediate between US and Iran. In a typical surprise maneuver that he made to his signature, Trump and his co-workers suddenly said that a meeting with Iran's President Hassan Rouhani at the UN meeting in New York next week would be conceivable. But a spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry said at a press conference in Tehran on Monday that a meeting is now unthinkable unless the US begins to lift the economic sanctions.

In June, it was very close for the US to attack Iranian targets after oil tankers were shot in the Persian Gulf. But just ten minutes before firing, Trump gave counter-orders, saying afterwards that a military strike had hindered diplomatic negotiations.

Iranian Air Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh has warned that the United States has military facilities within reach of Iranian defense missiles and that Iran is constantly preparing for a "full-scale war".

A US military attack would trigger a domestic political crisis in the United States and become a bat in the presidential campaign.

Representatives of the US Democratic Party, including Senator Bernie Sanders, have said that neither the Senate nor the House of Representatives will approve a new oil war in the Middle East.

"Mr. President, the United States Constitution is very clear. Only Congress - not the President - can declare war. And the congress will not authorize you to start another devastating war in the Middle East, ”Bernie Sanders tweeted.

The question is what the United States has to gain from a military strike against Iranian interests. The US does not risk being significantly affected by the fact that Saudi Arabia's oil production is currently halved. The US currently has a completely different preparedness to cope with oil shocks. The United States is almost 90 percent self-sufficient in oil and the world's third largest exporter of crude oil after Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Already President Obama has decided that the United States must invest more in domestic energy production in order not to be vulnerable when crises and conflicts send shock waves through Arab oil production. It is a policy that Donald Trump has developed by making a big investment in coal. Today, the United States has significant own production of oil, natural gas and a growing proportion of solar and wind power energy. The country also has large own depots of oil.

Saudi Arabia's missing message about how serious the damage is to their oil depots also contributes to the nervous situation. That's five percent of the world's total oil production, which is now down. The price increase is the biggest rush since the Kuwait War for nearly three decades.

A military attack on Iran is also driven by other motives, perhaps together with its ally Saudi Arabia winning a proxy war against Yemen and their ally Iran.

From political leaders all over the world there are calls for reflection. Only in Washington and Ryad do you know what will be the best step now.