The presidential election in Tunisia, Sunday, September 15, promises to be the most unpredictable in the history of the young democracy of the North African country, pioneer of the Arab revolutions of 2011: no obvious candidate stands out in a strongly economic context degraded.
If outside observers, especially Arab countries, will be interested in the outcome of the moderate Islamist party Ennahda, many Tunisians seem seduced by the controversial figure of the advertising Nabil Karoui, self-proclaimed champion of the poor arrested last month as part of an investigation for tax evasion and money laundering.
>> Report: These young Tunisians who want to make their voices heard
But years of unemployment, inflation and cutbacks in public spending are fueling a sense of frustration and disillusionment with politics, which is further heightening uncertainty.
"I do not see a single qualified candidate who deserves to govern Tunisia," admits Houda Ben Ayed, a woman met at a tram station in Tunis.
In the case - probable - where no candidate will obtain Sunday the absolute majority, a second round will be organized on October 13th. The outcome of the vote is also expected to influence parliamentary elections scheduled a week earlier, on 6 October.
>> Report: Tunisian voters say: "We live with the hope that it can change"
The electoral campaign that ends, however, has dramatically illustrated the vibrancy of democracy in Tunisia, which has seven million registered voters. More than eight and a half years after the overthrow of autocrat Zine Ben Ali in January 2011, at the end of the "Jasmine Revolution", televised debates between the 24 men and two women who seek the supreme nomination have been widely followed .
Candidates want to expand presidential powers
The candidates - including current Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, two of his predecessors, Mehdi Jomaa and Hamadi Jebali, or former President Moncef Marzouki - represent a broad political spectrum unimaginable in other Arab countries: secular left versus Islamists moderate, liberals against protectionists, supporters of the revolution against defenders of the old regime.
Most elections since 2011 have led to power-sharing agreements between rival parties seeking to avoid a dangerous polarization between Islamists and secularists, or to present a united front in the face of the economic crisis.
>> Report: The inhabitants of Tunisian rural areas disillusioned
But the durability of this consensual model is not assured. The result of the first round of the presidential election Sunday could indeed push the parties to outbid before the legislative.
Although he remains the most important personality on the Tunisian political scene, the president exercises direct control only over foreign affairs and defense. Elected by Parliament, the Prime Minister oversees most other portfolios.
Several candidates questioned this division of tasks, calling for a constitutional amendment to expand presidential powers.
A Prime Minister candidate who embodies the difficulties of the country
The case of Nabil Karoui adds to the confusion. He is the owner of a television channel and a charity that he uses to heal his image as a defender of the lower classes, and is accused by his critics of demagoguery and the threat to democracy.
His supporters, on the contrary, denounce the persecutions of which he would be the object of power and which they see evidence in his arrest last month, while the investigation against him for tax evasion and money laundering was opened many years ago.
>> To see: The economic slump weighs heavily on the Tunisian presidential election
Facing him, the candidate who presents himself as that of continuity is Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, whose government in office since 2016 applies the economic reforms requested by the International Monetary Fund in exchange for financial assistance.
He embodies the difficulties that will face the next president, between the demands of international donors and the economic hardships endured daily by a large part of the population.
>> Feature: Mobilizing Tunisian voters, one of the issues of the poll
Banished under the presidency of Ben Ali, the Ennahda party has greatly smoothed its image since the Revolution, posing as a party "Muslim Democrat" and participating in various governments, although many Tunisians continue to suspect him to hide his game.
His candidate, Abdelfattah Mourou, 71, is part of the moderate wing of the party. This is the first time that Ennahda, who relies on a device without equal in the country, presents a presidential candidate, while it is said above all interested in the legislative. Ennahda's leader, Rached Ghannouchi, nonetheless called on other conservative candidates to withdraw.
With Reuters