The Volatile Model: The UK government has published the “worst case” Brexit scenario without a deal

The British government at the request of parliamentarians unveiled the "worst" scenario of Brexit without a deal.

A statement called Operation Yellowhammer, published on the cabinet’s official website, notes that a “hard” brexit may lead to significant interruptions in transport and trade connections on the French border - up to 85% of trucks crossing the English Channel may not be ready to the introduction of customs control.

“The unpreparedness of trading companies (for customs clearance. - RT ) , combined with the limited ability of French ports to contain“ unprepared ”heavy vehicles, can lead to a reduction in trade flow to 40-60% of the current level in one day, since unprepared heavy vehicles will fill ports and block the flow, ”the statement says.

The authorities of the kingdom do not exclude that this state of affairs will last at least three months, however, the unstable situation may persist “much longer” - trucks will have to wait about three days to cross the border.

The document emphasizes that such a situation can adversely affect the supply of a number of medicines with a limited shelf life. This, in turn, can lead to a shortage of veterinary drugs, and, as a result, to outbreaks of some dangerous diseases. The supply of “certain types of fresh produce” will also be reduced, prices will rise, which will hit “vulnerable groups”.

“Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by any increase in food and fuel prices,” the authors of the document state.

According to the forecast, brexit without a deal will negatively affect the level of law and order in the country.

“Protests and counter-protests will take place throughout the UK and may require significant police resources. There may also be an increase in public unrest and tension in society, ”said a statement published by the British government.

In addition, the cross-border communication between Spain and Gibraltar will suffer, the inhabitants of which will have to wait about four hours - this situation will continue "for at least several months."

• UK Government Headquarters
• Reuters
• © Toby Melville

In addition, in a promulgated scenario, the British government recognized that a border would have to be established between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the independent Republic of Ireland, even though this option was previously excluded.

“This model is likely to be unstable due to significant risks in terms of economics, law and biosafety. In addition, we will have no effective unilateral measures to mitigate such consequences, ”the document says.

At the same time, according to the British newspaper The Guardian, the British government has not yet disclosed materials on the exit of the kingdom from the EU without a deal in full, refusing to fulfill the second part of the request of parliamentarians. According to the publication, the deputies also demanded to publish messages regarding the suspension of parliament sent by senior adviser to Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings and other assistants on WhatsApp, Facebook and other social networks.

“Accustomed to stability”

Having forced the government to publish a negative scenario of “hard” brexitis, parliamentarians who oppose such a scenario are hoping to influence public opinion, said Vladimir Schweitzer, head of the department of social and political research at the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

“Such forecasts have a strong effect on ordinary citizens. People are accustomed to stability and do not like to live in the unknown, ”said the expert in a conversation with RT.

According to him, a large-scale information war has unfolded around the situation with Brexitis.

“This happened because there are different points of view in British politics. The Laborites believe that a second referendum is necessary, Johnson - that the kingdom needs new elections, and most parliamentarians want to leave things as they are so as not to lose their seats, ”the analyst explained.

Vladimir Schweitzer also added that "the Brexit story is breaking the configuration of European economic relations."

“In addition to other aspects linking the UK and the EU, the parties have a lot of common mutually beneficial programs that will be abolished. However, the overwhelming majority of the British consider themselves to be a self-sufficient nation that can exist autonomously, ”Schweitzer said in an interview with RT.

At the same time, he predicted that the process of Britain’s exit from the EU would take a long time, since the parties had still not been able to reach a consensus.

"The fact that the deputies managed to get the British government to publish a negative Brexit scenario without a deal, as well as the events of recent weeks, indicate that the deputies took all measures to prevent the" tough "option for the kingdom to leave the European Union," said in an interview with RT Senior researcher at the Center for British Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences Kira Godovanyuk.

• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
• Reuters
• © Phil Noble

The expert also noted that the EU has never encountered a situation when one of its member countries leaves the union, so even now it is impossible to make a more or less accurate forecast regarding the effects of Brexit.

“The fact that Britain’s unregulated exit from the European Union is associated with extremely serious problems, ambiguity, interruptions in the chains of transportation and movement of people is obvious. First of all, Brexit will hit the states bordering the kingdom, ”Godovanyuk believes.

Labor reaction

The Labor Party of Great Britain said that a document published by the British government confirms "the presence of serious risks with Brexit without a deal."

“It was completely irresponsible on the part of the government to ignore these persistent warnings and prevent the public from familiarizing themselves with the facts,” said Cyrus Starmer, a member of the British Parliament, shadow Brexit minister for Labor.

According to him, now Johnson must admit that he was dishonest to the British people with regard to the consequences of Britain’s harsh exit from the European Union.

“In addition, now more than ever it is important that parliament resume its work, be able to familiarize themselves with these documents and take all necessary measures to prevent brexitis without a deal,” Starmer said.

Earlier, the head of the parliamentary intelligence committee, the country's former prosecutor general, Dominic Grieve, who initiated parliament’s adoption of a resolution requiring disclosure of the negative effects of Brexit, accused the government of violating democracy and called for a second referendum on Britain’s EU membership.

Earlier, the British parliament repeatedly rejected the initiative of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to hold early parliamentary elections in mid-October. At the same time, Johnson decided to suspend the work of the British government until October 14 and said that he would not ask Brussels to postpone Brexit.

Earlier, Queen Elizabeth II approved the opposition bill, requiring the government to request from the EU another postponement of the exit of the kingdom from the EU in case the parties fail to reach an agreement.

As noted by Kira Godovanyuk, despite the fact that Johnson promised not to ask the EU to extend the UK exit from the European Union, he cannot but follow the recently adopted law on the impossibility of conducting Brexit without a deal on October 31, 2019.

• UK residents vote in referendum on Britain's EU membership
• AFP
• © ADRIAN DENNIS

“In the opposite case, his resignation will be a foregone conclusion. The main question now is how Johnson will try to circumvent this law, whether he will find any loopholes in it, ”the expert said.

Moreover, even if the British Prime Minister still asks the EU to extend the UK exit from the EU, it is not a fact that Brussels will be ready to do it, Godovanyuk believes.

“In order to postpone this date again, we need a good reason - for example, new proposals or early parliamentary elections. Therefore, the situation with Brexitis is unpredictable, everything is in limbo - a lot now depends on procedural issues, ”Godovanyuk explained in an interview with RT.

She also suggested that after an "unplanned vacation" of deputies in mid-October, the issue of holding early parliamentary elections, and possibly a vote of no confidence in the government, proposals for a new version of the transaction would again arise.

At the same time, according to Vladimir Schweitzer, with Johnson's premiership, a second referendum is excluded.

“He has repeatedly stated this, and no one will force him to change his mind,” said the expert.

However, in the case of repeated parliamentary elections, the results of which could form a new government, the situation is likely to change, Schweitzer believes.