Great Reform of Economic Statistics September 12, 20:29

Rugby World Cup opening in Japan on 20th of this month. This tournament is also a competition for advanced sports technology. Player performance is converted into data through various devices and is subject to analysis in real time, which is reflected in tactics.
Self-diagnosis based on highly accurate data to overcome weaknesses and increase their value. This dynamic movement extends to all economic activities, not just sports.

A major reform of economic statistics in the era of big data Economic statistics cannot fully grasp the actual situation of the paradigm shift. The government has decided to work on the “major reform of economic statistics” over the next 10 years.
What should economic statistics be in the age of “digital capitalism” where data creates value? How will our livelihood and economy be reflected by statistical reforms?
With our awareness of these issues, we want to approach the true picture of the economy and society. (Toshingo Arai, Reporter, Statistics and Data Coverage, Economic Department)

Rugby World Cup pays attention to data analysis

Last time, at the 2015 Rugby World Cup, the Japanese national team grabbed the victory that was said to be the greatest miracle in sports history against South Africa.

Eddie Jones, the head coach of the national team, stresses that there was a “thorough preparation” behind the victory.

One of the “thorough preparations” was the analysis of so-called “location data” through advanced equipment.

Using GPS (Global Positioning System), based on data obtained from a terminal attached to the back of the athlete's jersey, the athlete's distance and speed are analyzed. The video taken from the drone was also analyzed, and the analysis results were used to improve the player's performance.

From this tournament, it is said that data such as heart rate has also been collected through the terminal, enabling real-time analysis.

Like Rugby representative, the movement to improve data analysis performance has spread to various organizations ranging from companies to local governments.

Economic statistics do not reflect changing times

Data is also referred to as “modern oil”, and businesses that use data are steadily expanding.

However, the country's economic statistics that show the actual conditions of our lives and the economy point out that the renewal has been delayed and we have not been able to capture these major changes.

Of course, the country wasn't too busy. Over the next decade, we plan to incorporate it into major reforms in economic statistics represented by GDP.

GDP is the total value of goods and services produced within a certain period of time in Japan, and is the most important indicator for understanding the country's economic scale. It is also a measure to know how much the economy has grown, that is, the economic trend.

However, current economic statistics are not enough to capture the economic activities that represent the era of digital capitalism, such as sharing economy such as private accommodation and flea market apps, and online shopping. If we cannot accurately grasp the life-size figure of the country, we cannot come up with effective measures.

Mr. Kiyohiko Nishimura, chairman of the Statistics Committee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the national statistical management headquarters, shows a sense of crisis in the current state of economic statistics that has not captured the changes of the times.

“If you are told that government statistics are in a critical situation, then you have to say that. There have been a lot of big problems in GDP statistics. Cooperating with the ministry and fighting, we were dealing with it.To put it another way, we started to take time-consuming work to gradually restore and recreate the “bridge” of statistics in various places. The “bridge” of statistics is also the link between our perception and the true state of the economy and society.Without the “bridge”, we cannot see the true figure. The work is extremely important. ''

What is the reality of the sharing economy?

What does it mean to “can't see the real figure”?

Let's look at an example of the sharing economy, one of the economic activities that symbolizes digital capitalism.

In addition to private accommodation, this includes services such as flea market apps and car sharing. Many people have used it.

The Economic and Social Research Institute of the Cabinet Office estimated the market size in July this year, and it is about 630 billion yen to 670 billion yen in 2017.

Currently, it is estimated that 80 billion to 100 billion yen is not captured.

Compared to the size of Japan's GDP (nominally about 550 trillion yen), it is not so large, but considering that the sharing economy is growing rapidly, the portion that cannot be captured will expand further in the future. The

How to reflect new economic activities in statistics is a common issue not only in Japan but around the world.

In Ireland, where corporate tax rates are low and many multinational corporations are based, calculations based on financial statements reported by companies have resulted in a significant increase in GDP in 2015 to approximately 26% over the previous year. is.

The progress of globalization as well as digitization has become a major variable factor in statistics.

Difficult to understand statistical reform

How will Japan's economic statistics change in the future?

For example, in the GDP statistics, we adopt the methods introduced by G7 countries other than Japan, and grasp the movement in which value is created from the supply side for each company and business establishment. This aims to further supplement new economic activities such as sharing economy.

What happened when the direction of these reforms became apparent was the statistical misconduct around the monthly labor statistics that was discovered last December.

As a result, of the 56 “core statistics” that the government considers to be particularly important statistics, problems were discovered in 23 statistics.

The government is taking measures, but Chairman Nishimura says it is not easy to understand the importance of statistics infrastructure.

“If the“ bridge ”of statistics falls, everyone will make a fuss, but nobody complains while the“ bridge ”goes around. It ’s important to protect the infrastructure when everyone does n’t. Actually, it is difficult for everyone to understand that it was protected, and it would be a gorgeous job to create a new infrastructure, but the statistical reform is a story of recreating the old infrastructure to make it better, so the public knows that It ’s hard to get it. ”

Does that number reflect the truth?

Some say economic statistics are a “mirror” that reflects the economy and daily life.

Collecting accurate data is the most important thing as it provides the basis for economic measures and social security policies.

To what extent do statistics and data accurately represent the economy and society, and do the numbers reflect the truth?

The news gathering team will proceed with the news gathering by taking statistics and data as the starting point and facing various issues facing Japan.

Economic Department reporter Toshiaki Arai Joined Kitami Station in 2005