Defeated for the sixth time in six days by the deputies. Boris Johnson suffered another setback on Monday (September 9th) after the rejection of early elections. The beginnings of the British Prime Minister resemble a way of the cross. To the point of wondering if he did not lose his head by launching his big offensive of re-entry against Parliament?

No need to turn to psychiatry to answer this question. Game theory - a branch of mathematics that, for simplicity's sake, focuses on situations in which players must make decisions that take into account the reactions of others - can help to understand Boris Johnson's strategy.

"Crazy Theory"

More specifically, the Prime Minister seems to have been inspired by the US economist and 2005 Nobel economist Thomas Schelling, inventor of the "irrational rationality" that US President Richard Nixon called the "crazy theory". According to this concept, "it is reasonable, in a crisis, to raise the stakes to push the other to make concessions," says Abhinay Muthoo, economist and dean of the campus of the University of Warwick in London, contacted by France 24.

And according to him, this is exactly what the British Prime Minister is doing in his many fights, with Parliament, but especially with Brussels. "His strategy is to appear a little crazy, capable of making improbable decisions.It suffices to convince Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel that he is ready to go to the end of its logic to hope to obtain concessions on the conditions for leaving the EU, "said Abhinay Muthoo.

His decision to suspend Parliament for five weeks, to exclude prominent members of the Conservative group from the House of Commons or to push for early elections to the dregs are, in fact, as many signals sent to the House of Commons. the EU. "He shows that he is not afraid to take initiatives that were unimaginable just a few months ago," says Matthias Diermeier, a researcher at the German Institute of Economics Cologne, contacted by France 24.

A game of "sissy"

But the theory of games, whose foundations were laid in 1920 by mathematics and which was then recovered by economists and political scientists to analyze the behavior of economic agents and decision makers, is not limited to the "crazy theory". ". Other parts of this area of ​​study seem to have also inspired the British Prime Minister and his faithful adviser Dominic Cumming, "known to be a follower of these strategies," recalls Abhinay Muthoo.

Sören Schwuchow, an expert in game theory at the Brandenburg Technological University in Cottbus, believes the duo is also inspired by the idea of ​​"bound fists". It is about limiting its options by cutting off the bridges so that the main threat, that is to say a "no deal", seems more credible. "The deputies threatened Boris Johnson's hard-line strategy by trying to prevent a Brexit without an agreement, so the Prime Minister has decided to suspend the activity of Parliament, so he cuts the bridges hoping that this will strengthen his position. negotiations against Brussels ", explains Sören Schwuchow.

All these maneuvers with Parliament are aimed at preparing for the great final confrontation, scheduled for the European summit on 17 October. Here again, game theory can provide a better understanding of Boris Johnson's strategy. He is preparing to invite European negotiators to a game of "sissy". The classic example that allows the theory to illustrate this concept is that of two cars that darken towards each other. The one that deviates the first of its trajectory to avoid the crash has lost. Boris Johnson's bet is that the European authorities "do not want a Brexit without agreement and they will back down first because they think that the Prime Minister is crazy enough to go to the crash," said Sören Schwuchow.

Danger for democracy ?

This expert believes that Boris Johnson has played his hand well, although it has not ceased to be disavowed by Parliament. "He has never compromised, and that is what is important in the longer term for the negotiations with the EU," he notes.

Abhinay Muthoo is less quick to issue the master certificate of game theory to Boris Johnson. "To properly apply these principles in politics, we must also anticipate the reactions of all actors in order to counter them in advance." The government has misjudged the reaction capacity of the members who were very quick to vote a law for to prevent a Brexit without agreement.The Prime Minister should have waited until the very last moment to announce the suspension of the Parliament, "he analyzes.

To remain consistent, Boris Johnson must look for a way to neutralize this law. Foreign Minister Dominic Raab suggested Sunday, Sept. 8, that 10 Downing Street would seek to get around the barrier by "testing the boundaries" of the law passed.

That's all the danger of following the precepts of game theory, believes Abhinay Muthoo. "In this kind of high-stakes situation, you have to be ready to raise the stakes very high," he says. At risk, according to Sören Schwuchow, having to assume the consequences because "we realize that it is the democracy that pays the price".

This is a problem that goes beyond the British framework. Other populist leaders have been seduced by the promise of game theory, says Sören Schwuchow. He cites the example of US President Donald Trump, always ready to push the plug further, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un like other disciples of game theory. The way they applied it - going for one, ever further in the trade war against China, and for the other, brandishing the nuclear threat - did not help to make the world more sure.