The fight for Brexit: will Boris Johnson be able to achieve early parliamentary elections in the UK

The lower house of the British parliament did not support the proposal put forward by the Prime Minister of the country, Boris Johnson, to hold early elections on October 15. However, this decision did not force Johnson to abandon this idea. He hinted that the government will try to re-submit the issue to parliament.

Johnson's proposal for an early election was in response to parliamentary approval of a new postponement of Brexit, which was mainly supported by Labor, led by Jeremy Corbin. The bill obliging the British Cabinet to delay the country's exit from the EU for three months - until January 31, 2020 - was adopted in the third reading. 327 parliamentarians voted for this initiative, 299 voted against. However, for the final adoption of the bill, the House of Lords and Queen Elizabeth II must still approve.

During the debate, Corbin accused Johnson of hiding the severity of the consequences that the country would face in the event of a “hard” Brexit, and agreed to hold early elections - but only after the adoption of a law that would prohibit leaving the European Union without a deal.

“If Johnson wants to bring up the issue of holding a general election, please. But first, a law must be passed to ban Brexit without a deal, ”Corbin said.

• Jeremy Corbin
• AFP
• © PRU

After the failure of his initiative in parliament (Johnson managed to secure the support of 298 deputies with the required minimum of 434 votes), the prime minister said that Corbin was the first opposition leader to refuse the election. According to him, this is due to the fact that the head of the Labor Party is simply not sure of his victory in the elections.

Commenting on the current situation, experts interviewed by RT believe that the British prime minister will not accept his defeat. The head of the Center for Political Integration of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Lyudmila Babynina, explained that Johnson will have to set new elections, because if he does not get additional seats in parliament, he will not be able to hold a brexit according to his plan.

“However, early elections can only be called if two-thirds of the House of Commons vote for them,” the expert said.

Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that he is ready to withdraw the country from the European Union according to the “hard” scenario and does not intend to delay this process. The United Kingdom was supposed to leave the EU on March 29, 2019, two years after the submission of the corresponding written notice. But the government of Theresa May failed three times to approve the draft agreement with the EU with British parliamentarians, which ultimately led to her resignation.

However, now Johnson’s plans are in jeopardy - if the House of Lords and Queen Elizabeth II approve of the law on the abolition of the “hard” brexit, the UK government will be obliged to request from the EU leadership another postponement and an additional round of negotiations.

Parliamentary oversight

On the eve of Johnson’s announcement of early elections, one of the deputies, former Deputy Secretary of Justice Philip Lee, left the Conservative Party. This led to the loss of Johnson and his associates of the parliamentary majority. As a result, on September 3, deputies of the House of Commons were able to vote for giving themselves the right to determine the parliamentary agenda and approve the cancellation of the “hard” brexit.

Lee left the ranks of the Conservatives right during the parliamentary meeting, defiantly reseeding to the deputies of the Liberal Democratic Party. He justified his decision by disagreeing with Johnson's policies and his style of managing the Conservative Party and the government.

“The brexit process has helped transform this once-great party into something more like a clique in which the measure of someone’s“ conservatism ”is how recklessly a person wants to leave the EU,” Lee said.

In recent days, more than 20 members of the Tory have left the ranks of the Tories, supporting the bill to delay the brexitis. Among them are such influential figures as ex-finance ministers Kenneth Clark and Philip Hammond, former Minister of Justice David Gock, former Deputy Foreign Minister Alistair Burt and others. The leadership of the Conservative Party expelled them from their ranks.

The loss of a parliamentary majority means that conservatives led by Boris Johnson will not be able to get the necessary advantage in voting even with the support of their main allies, the Democratic Union Party of Northern Ireland (DUP). Until September 3, ten parliamentarians from the DUP, who voted with the conservatives, provided the ruling party with a decisive majority.

This state of affairs puts Johnson in an uncomfortable position. Experts note that in the British political system, premieres that do not have a majority vote are traditionally removed from office through a vote of no confidence passed by parliament.

If the Labor Party and the Scottish National Party, as the main opposition forces, decide to put this issue to the vote, it is highly likely that Johnson will be removed from power only 42 days after he took office as prime minister. The chair of the head of the British government was less occupied only by the winner of the Battle of Waterloo, the famous British commander, Duke Arthur Wellington, who had been prime minister for 23 days in 1834.

According to Lyudmila Babynina, the opposition’s actions can slow down the brexit process again, as it was under Theresa May’s cabinet, but Prime Minister Johnson will most likely not lose his chair.

“In order for the prime minister to leave his post, a vote of no confidence must be passed. This is unlikely to happen, since the vote requires the votes of the House of Commons and, most likely, the conservative deputies who voted against hard Brexit will not support Johnson's resignation. In this case, party discipline can play into his hands. Although the conservatives now have no majority, ”the expert explained.

• Brexit protests in London
• Reuters
• © Henry Nicholls

Early election

Recall that Johnson is not the first prime minister who decided to resort to holding early elections in order to strengthen his position in parliament. His predecessor Theresa May took such a step in 2017.

However, those parliamentary elections did not bring the expected results to the conservatives - instead of acquiring new seats, the Tories lost 13 seats and remained with a minimal advantage, which is now even more undermined by the “defectors”.

The head of the department of social and political studies at the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vladimir Schweitzer, believes that it is now difficult to predict what result the new elections will bring if they are held, since the situation around the Brexit has led to a split in the Conservative Party.

“I think that in the near future the conservatives will lose a number of deputies, as there are many among them who are associated with economic circles who are interested in maintaining close ties with the EU. Now the conservatives no longer have a majority, they are at zero, because the liberal democrats and Labor (despite the fact that they do not like each other) have united and are friends against Johnson, ”the source said.

Johnson, like Theresa May before him, expects to strengthen his position in parliament, but instead may lose his post of prime minister, Schweitzer believes.

“In the case of new elections and a new result, in which the conservatives will not have a relative majority, the option of even a new referendum is possible. I do not know who will support Johnson in this situation, since his authority is small. Most likely, some kind of new conservative movement will be formed, which may come to these elections with an independent program, ”Schweitzer noted.

In turn, Lyudmila Babynina also believes that the new election could become a kind of referendum on both Brexit and Johnson himself as the Prime Minister.

“This issue has split society, political elites and their parties. There are opponents of brexitis among conservatives, and Labor has supporters of leaving the EU, so it is difficult to predict the results ... Elections in this case are a risk. Johnson believes that conservatives will be able to get more votes than they have now, however, nobody will dare to predict this with 100% probability, ”the expert concluded.